Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist Ag Outlook for 2017 & Beyond Summerfest Ames, Iowa July 19, 2016 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

Change in Real GDP Source: Federal Reserve

Unemployment Rate Source: Federal Reserve

Inflation Source: Federal Reserve

Interest Rates Source: Federal Reserve

Interest Rate Projections Source: Federal Reserve

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted (mil. acres) 97.3 95.4 90.6 88.0 94.1 Yield (bu./acre) 123.1 158.1 171.0 168.4 168.0 Production (mil. bu.) 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,601 14,540 Beg. Stocks 989 821 1,232 1,731 1,701 Imports 160 36 32 60 40 Total Supply 11,904 14,686 15,479 15,392 16,281 Feed & Residual 4,315 5,040 5,324 5,200 5,500 Ethanol 4,641 5,124 5,225 5,275 Food, Seed, & Other 1,397 1,369 1,360 1,367 1,375 Exports 730 1,920 1,864 1,900 2,050 Total Use 11,083 13,454 13,748 13,692 14,200 Ending Stocks 2,081 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.89 4.46 3.70 3.65 3.40 Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.2 76.8 83.3 82.7 83.7 Yield (bu./acre) 40.0 44.0 47.5 48.0 46.7 Production (mil. bu.) 3,042 3,358 3,927 3,929 3,880 Beg. Stocks 169 141 92 191 350 Imports 41 72 33 25 30 Total Supply 3,252 3,570 4,052 4,145 4,260 Crush 1,689 1,734 1,873 1,890 1,925 Seed & Residual 105 107 145 109 125 Exports 1,317 1,638 1,843 1,795 1,920 Total Use 3,111 3,478 3,862 3,794 3,970 Ending Stocks 290 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 14.40 13.00 10.10 9.05 9.50 Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

Iowa Yields Source: USDA-NASS

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

Renewable Fuels Standard Source: EPA

Current Corn Futures 3.65 3.42 Source: CME Group, 7/18/2016

Current Soybean Futures 10.09 9.19 Source: CME Group, 7/18/2016

Corn Use for the Next 10 Years Source: USDA-ERS

Soybean Use for the Next 10 Years Source: USDA-ERS

Crop Prices for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

Arable Land

World Corn Markets Source: USDA 24 24

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/