2015 Crop Market Outlook Pioneer Grower Meetings Sioux Center and Granville, Iowa Mar. 2, 2015 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1
U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted (mil. acres) 91.9 97.3 95.4 90.6 89.0 Yield (bu./acre) 147.2 123.1 158.1 171.0 166.8 Production (mil. bu.) 12,360 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,595 Beg. Stocks 1,128 989 821 1,232 1,827 Imports 29 160 36 25 Total Supply 13,517 11,904 14,686 15,472 15,447 Feed & Residual 4,557 4,315 5,036 5,250 5,275 Ethanol 5,000 4,641 5,134 5,225 Food, Seed, & Other 1,428 1,397 1,367 1,395 1,410 Exports 1,543 730 1,917 1,750 1,850 Total Use 12,528 11,083 13,454 13,645 13,760 Ending Stocks 1,687 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.22 6.89 4.46 3.65 3.50 Sources: USDA-WAOB 2011-14, USDA-OCE 2015 2 2
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted (mil. acres) 75.0 77.2 76.8 83.7 83.5 Yield (bu./acre) 41.9 40.0 44.0 47.8 46.0 Production (mil. bu.) 3,094 3,042 3,358 3,969 3,800 Beg. Stocks 215 169 141 92 385 Imports 16 41 72 25 20 Total Supply 3,325 3,252 3,570 4,086 4,205 Crush 1,703 1,689 1,734 1,795 1,840 Seed & Residual 88 105 97 116 Exports 1,365 1,317 1,647 1,790 1,820 Total Use 3,155 3,111 3,478 3,701 3,775 Ending Stocks 430 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 12.50 14.40 13.00 10.20 9.00 Sources: USDA-WAOB 2011-14, USDA-OCE 2015 3 3
Corn Yields Top: 2014 Yield Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bu/acre Source: USDA-NASS
Soybean Yields Top: 2014 Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bu/acre Source: USDA-NASS
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6
World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7
Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension
Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension
U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10
Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME
Global Crude Oil Market Source: EIA
Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve
Corn Grind for Ethanol
Ethanol Stocks
Current Corn Futures 3.98 3.75 Source: CME Group, 2/27/2015
Current Soybean Futures 10.18 9.63 Source: CME Group, 2/27/2015
Corn Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs
Soybean Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs
2014/15 Crop Margins
2015/16 Crop Margins
Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns Record corn and soybean crops, but also record demand Markets are in a holding pattern, waiting for news Watching South American crop progress Projected negative margins for 2014 and 2015 crops 2013/14 USDA 2014/15 Futures (2/27/15) 2015/16 Corn $4.46 $3.65 $3.75 $3.98 Soybeans $13.00 $10.20 $10.18 $9.63
Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/