Impact of Drought of 2012 on Crop Yields Ames Town and Country Kiwanis Ames, Iowa Oct. 20, 2012 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

Crop Conditions Source: USDA-NASS

Price Ratios Since May 1

Projected Corn Yields Yields (bu/acre) 2011 2012 % Change United States 147.2 122 -17% Iowa 172 140 -19% Illinois 157 98 -38% Nebraska 160 142 -11% Minnesota 156 168 8% Indiana 146 100 -32% South Dakota 132 94 -29% Wisconsin 127 Ohio 158 123 -22% Kansas 107 91 -15% Missouri 114 75 -34%

Projected Soybean Yields Yields (bu/acre) 2011 2012 % Change United States 41.9 37.8 -10% Iowa 51.5 43 -17% Illinois 47.5 39 -18% Minnesota 10% Nebraska 54 41 -24% Indiana 45.5 Ohio 48 Missouri 36.5 30 South Dakota 37 28 Arkansas 38.5 1% North Dakota 29 34 17%

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 96.9 Yield (bu./acre) 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 122.0 Production (mil. bu.) 12,092 13,092 12,447 12,358 10,706 Beg. Stocks 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 988 Imports 14 8 28 75 Total Supply 13,729 14,774 14,182 13,514 11,769 Feed & Residual 5,182 5,125 4,793 4,562 4,150 Ethanol 3,709 4,591 5,021 5,000 4,500 Food, Seed, & Other 1,316 1,370 1,407 1,421 1,350 Exports 1,849 1,980 1,835 1,543 1,150 Total Use 12,056 13,066 13,055 12,526 11,150 Ending Stocks 619 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.06 3.55 5.18 6.22 7.80 Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted (mil. acres) 75.7 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 Yield (bu./acre) 39.7 44.0 43.5 41.9 37.8 Production (mil. bu.) 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,094 2,860 Beg. Stocks 205 138 151 215 169 Imports 13 15 14 16 20 Total Supply 3,185 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,050 Crush 1,662 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,540 Seed & Residual 106 110 130 92 115 Exports 1,279 1,499 1,501 1,360 1,265 Total Use 3,047 3,361 3,280 3,155 2,920 Ending Stocks Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.97 9.59 11.30 12.50 15.25 Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

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