APPROACHES, METHODS AND TOOLS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT Richard J.T. Klein1 and Anthony G. Patt2 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany 2Department of Geography, Boston University, United States of America In-Session Workshop on Impacts of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation to, Climate Change Twenty-First Session of the UNFCCC Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice Buenos Aires, Argentina, 8 December 2004

From “CLIMATE CHANGE, SO WHAT?” to “CLIMATE CHANGE, WHAT TO DO?” The implementation of adaptation options cannot be informed only by the output of climate models. Vulnerability to climate change is also determined by local factors that are often unrelated to climate change. These non-climatic factors need to be considered in assessments and may have to be addressed in order to reduce vulnerability to climate change.

INFORMATION DEMANDS FOR ADAPTATION Issue identification and awareness raising. Priority setting. Strategic planning and policy development. Operational decision-making. To meet these different information demands requires a joint effort from climate impact research and climate adaptation research. However, the two types of research appear to be moving into different directions.

IMPACT RESEARCH ADAPTATION RESEARCH Continued reliance on scenarios and models. Increased reliance on qualitative methods. Recent improvements: Increasing spatial scale and resolution Increasing number of climate variables Scenarios of non-climatic changes Stakeholder involvement Important characteristics: Place-based studies that consider every situation as unique Climate change in broader context Focus on adaptive capacity Participatory approaches

ISSUE IDENTIFICATION AND AWARENESS RAISING Assessments are aimed at obtaining a picture of: The potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems, The extent to which adaptation could reduce these impacts. Typically relies on the use of scenarios and models (traditional climate impact research). Spatial scale is global to national, sometimes more detailed; temporal scale is decade to century. Requires (often bold) assumptions on adaptation.

ASSESSING INCREASED FLOOD RISK DUE TO SEA-LEVEL RISE Nicholls, 2002 Global sea-level rise scenarios Vertical land movements Relative sea-level rise scenarios Storm surge flood curves Raised flood levels Coastal topography Size of flood hazard zone Population density Number of people exposed Protection status Average annual number of people flooded

PRIORITY SETTING Assessments are aimed at providing insights into: The relative importance of impacts and the urgency to address them, The relative importance of climate change compared to other developments. Typically interprets scenario- and model-based information in a dialogue with stakeholders. Spatial scale is regional to mostly national; temporal scale is year to decade. Example: National Adaptation Programmes of Action.

STRATEGIC PLANNING AND POLICY DEVELOPMENT Assessments are aimed at identifying: Opportunities to incorporate adaptation into sectoral planning and decision-making, Current and future needs for building adaptive capacity. Typically involves a participatory approach to setting criteria for adaptation and to evaluating adaptive capacity. Spatial scale is regional to sub-national; temporal scale is year to decade.

OPERATIONAL DECISION-MAKING Assessments are aimed at evaluating: The effectiveness of alternative adaptation options, The most suitable time and place for their implementation. Typically involves the use of decision tools, possibly in a participatory setting. Spatial scale is national to local; temporal scale is year to decade. Example: UKCIP, 2003: Climate Adaptation: Risk, Uncertainty and Decision-Making.

MEETING INFORMATION DEMANDS Two decades of climate impact research have led to robust methods and tools, which continue to be improved. However, they will always be able to tell only part of the story. When going from the global to the local level, the responsibility of relevant actors shifts from facilitating adaptation to implementing adaptation. There is a mismatch in scale (both spatial and temporal) between scenario- and model-based information and the information required by those typically involved in implementing adaptation options.

INFORMATION DEMANDS OF DECISION-MAKERS Probabilistic estimates of climate change. Costs and benefits of taking action and not taking action. Importance of climate change relative to other changes. Viability and feasibility of alternative adaptation options.

THE CHALLENGE The challenge is now to address information demands of decision-makers, by: Investing in the further development of tools for climate adaptation research, Convincing people of the benefits of using these tools, Combining the results of impact and adaptation research.

A DILEMMA To support the implementation of adaptation options, there is a need to complement climate information with relevant local knowledge that is often unrelated to climate change. The focus of international climate policy has been primarily on facilitating adaptation at the national level. The UNFCCC and the GEF need to seek ways to encourage the development and use of methods and tools that are primarily generated through relevant local knowledge.

CONCLUSIONS Climate models and simulation models provide information on the potential magnitude of the problem; but have limitations in defining local or sectoral adaptation needs. Climate impact research needs to be complemented by climate adaptation research to enable decision-makers to set priorities, plan strategies and implement options. Climate adaptation research requires methods and tools that consider explicitly non-climatic developments    The next important step for the UNFCCC and SBSTA can be in addressing these issues