1. Using climate outlooks to adapt to climate change
Gina Ziervogel
Stockholm Environment Institute

2. Outline Climate change/climate variability
Climate outlooks as a means of adaptation to climate variability
Case study: Lesotho
Conclusion

3. Climate change and climate variability
Long-term climate change
Will vulnerable groups be able to cope?
How do we assess that?
Climate variability
Ability to factor in variability makes people more resilient

4. Propositions climate variability = coping range/resilience
climate variability = climate awareness
climate extremes = signal impacts
climate extremes = institutional reforms

5. Learning
Learning to cope with climate variability = adapt to longer term climate change?
Can we expect all groups to adapt to medium-term variability?

6. Climate outlooks Seasonal forecasts Inter-annual forecasts
Decadel forecasts
Characteristics
Probabilistic
Limited spatial and
temporal scale

7. Climate outlooks as medium-term information source
Outlooks fit into annual planning horizons
Not days, not centuries
time
Climate outlooks
Weather forecasts
Climate change scenarios

8. Case study: Lesotho Smallholder farmers Climate impacts on livelihoods
Rain-fed agriculture
Livestock
Variable climate
Climate impacts on livelihoods
Direct
Crops
Health
Natural resources
Indirect
Education
Social networks

9. Participatory role-play exercise
Small groups
Seasonal forecast applications
Decisions recorded for a series of ‘years’

10. Seasonal forecast applications
Findings
Needs to be tried and tested
Attribute different priorities to different forecasts
Personal communication facilitates better understanding of the forecast
Number of constraints to forecast use
A way of adapting to seasonal variation

11. Impact of seasonal forecasts on livelihoods
May encourage diversification which decreases risk
Enables maximisation of good years
May not be used but can still promote awareness of expected variability

12. Planning cycle Daily – weather, decision making
Annual – seasonal forecasts, multi-year
Climate change – ‘new’ scenarios every years
Micro-macro interaction
Integrating different spatial and temporal scales

13. Lessons to be learned for climate change adaptation
Only one chance with longer-term change
Can’t expect people to adapt quickly and easily to long-term change
Climate variability not always =
increased coping or increased use of climate info
Climate extremes might not prompt adaptation that benefits the vulnerable

14. Conclusion Outlooks promote awareness of longer-term adaptation
Don’t have good adaptation scenarios
What do perfect outlooks teach us?