IMPORTANT FINDINGS ACROSS CATEGORIES: Potential Studies for the Next Phase Center for Environmental Geomatics Climate Studies Division Manila Observatory Dissemination Workshop for Mapping Philippine Vulnerability to Environmental Disasters Klima Climate Change Center 8 July 2005

Purpose of National-Scale Risk Mapping: Identify priority areas for localized risk mapping Identify trends and themes across categories that may potentially be correlated DIRECTIONS FOR FURTHER STUDIES!

Common areas: Central Luzon Bicol Region Summary: Climate Disaster Risks

Common areas: Western Mindanao Summary: Climate Disaster Risks

Combined Climate Disaster Risk Map R C = R TY + R RC + R EL + R TI Albay Pampanga Ifugao Sorsogon BIliran Rizal Northern Samar Cavite Masbate Laguna

Summary: Geophysical Disaster Risks Is there any other factor contributing towards the occurrenceof shallow landslides in the Bukidnon and Lanao areas?

Summary: Geophysical Disaster Risks

Combined Geophysical Disaster Risk Map R G = R EQ + R LS + R TS + R VO Sulu Camiguin Ifugao Davao Oriental Sarangani Benguet Surigao del Sur La Union Lanao del Sur Zambales

LAND USE MAP vs. DISASTER RISK MAPS What risk do climate and weather-related disasters pose on our livelihood?

LAND USE MAP vs. DISASTER RISK MAPS Needed: a more detailed study of how geophysical disturbances and slopes affect or affected by plantations, forests and other sources of livelihood

GVA MAPS vs. DISASTER RISK MAPS An Alternative Approach to Quantifying Risk to Livelihood Together with maps of ecological resources, can a correlation be established between GVA and disaster risk?

URBAN CENTERS MAP vs. DISASTER RISK MAPS To what extent are the resources of urban centers able to reduce risk? How can we quantify the ability of urban centers to respond to, adapt to or mitigate climate disasters?

URBAN CENTERS MAP vs. DISASTER RISK MAPS What effect do urban centers have on geophysical disaster risk?

Urban Centers in High Geophysical Disaster Risk Areas ADVANTAGES –Resources –Response Reduces disaster risk DISADVANTAGES –Collateral damage E.g. collapsing buildings, ground liquefaction Compounds the disaster risk!

ECOLOGICAL PRIORITIES MAP vs. CLIMATE DISASTER MAPS How will the projected climate change potentially affect the countrys ecosystems, particularly in areas of high marine and terrestrial priority?

ECOLOGICAL PRIORITIES MAP vs. CLIMATE DISASTER MAPS Will socio-economic pressures compound the effect of climate change? How will changes in population and land use affect priority rankings?

GROUNDWATER AVAILABILITY MAPS and the RISK to EL NIÑO

SLOPE and FOREST COVER vs. LANDSLIDES

MINES, RIVER BASINS and CRITICAL WATERSHEDS MAPPING ECOLOGICAL DISASTER RISKS: What is the possibility of water contamination due to mining activities? This may be compounded by geophysical, climate and weather-related disasters.

The Next Phase of Risk Mapping: 1.Review and reformulate framework for determining risk, R = HEV: –Consider possible collateral hazards –Consider livelihood as well as lives exposed –Consider multiple vulnerabilities –Consider efforts at adaptation, prevention and mitigation that may reduce risk 2.Determine the effect of the presence of urban centers, and quantify access to urban centers using maps of location, slope and transportation.

3. Create ecological disaster risk maps. 4. Find correlations among the anthropogenic, ecological and disaster risk maps. E.g. ecological maps with climate disasters and possible climate change, population growth and land use change 5. Conduct localized disaster risk mapping in high-priority areas.

Thank you!