1. Víctor Orlando Magaña Rueda Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera UNAM Climate Change in Mexico Global Environmental Change: the challenge for North America 2030 Ottawa, Canada 25th June 2005 Climate change and its expected impacts upon North America

2. In recent decades, surface temperature is increasing in a coherent manner with the rest of the planet BC Sur 1950-2000 Yucatán 1950-2000 Oaxaca 1950-2000 Temper atura (°C) Periodo 1961- 74 1975 -84 1985 -94 1995 - 2004 Máxima26.626.827.027.7 Mínima9.710.4 11.6 Media18.218.618.719.7 Guanajuato Global Temperature Sonora 1930-2000 Tamaulipas 1950-2000 stations without urban effect

3. Aguilar et al 2005 Trends in consecutive rainy days Trends in consecutive dry days Extreme precipitation Heat waves Climate change signals in temperature and precipitation extreme conditions

4.  T 2080-2099 under A1B Probability of exceeding 1 std dev of present T by the 2030 Climate change scenarios (A1B) Changes in temperature (uncertainty range) in northern Mexico AR4 IPCC Heat waves 1970-1999 2030 2050 2080 40 45 50 Northern Mexico

5.  PCP (mm) 2080-2099 % change in pcp Climate change scenarios in annual precipitation Probability of change in Pcp larger than -15% by the 2030 Pcp in Chihuahua Increase in intensity of extreme pcp events

6. 1983 1998 Niño years Changes in water balance central Mexico Increases in T  1C PCP deficit  20% 2 months with no precip during the dry season increase the chances of forest fires NDVI Wet conditions Dry conditions

7. Water used in various sectors Degree of pressure on water resources =________________________ Natural water availability PRESENT (2004) BUSSINESS AS USUAL (2030) BUSSINESS AS USUAL PLUS CLIMATE CHANGE(2030)

8. Risk of climate change in wetlands Streamflow in the San Fernando River Runoff

9. What is the tendency in extreme precipitation events in southern Mexico? 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 The intensity of extreme precipitation during the last century in southern Mexico Chiapas Three days pcp in Ocotepec, Chiapas, 960 mm Changes in land use 1976-2000

10. The stability of slopes has dimnished due to land use change

11. Projected changes in runoff for the 2030 should consider land use change and sea level Percentage of pcp that runoffs with P = 100 mm of rain More runoff Sea level change

12. PRECIS Model 20-km Future Present 2080-2099 1979-1998 Interest in learning more about extreme events Tropical cyclone tracks

13. What´s the cost of no-adaptation? The economic and environmental costs of Wilma, Stan, Dean, Floods, El Niño 97, etc overpass the investment in prevention and recovery? Adaptation to Climate Change is an opportunity Mexican government actions in relation to Climate Change Mexicant endorsement of various Climate Change initiatives Emmissions inventory Mitigation initiatives Vulnerability studies to define adaptation strategies

14. Summary and conclusions Need to estimate the risk of socio- ecosystems in view of climate change More climate change scenarios region specific Detection and attribution studies to show that climate change is taking place Initiate adaptation projects