1. Mass Movement Hazards and Risk
The probability that a specific damaging event will happen within a specific area in a particular period of time (ISOfTMB/RMWG, 2007).
Vulnerability
the susceptibility of an element to a hazards
Technological aspects include:
damage and loss of life, which are subjects studied by engineers and geoscientists.
Human aspects include:
in addition to loss of life, loss of livelihood, physical displacement, and psychological and environmental impacts of hazardous events.
Coping capacity
the ability of an element to respond to and reduce the negative effects of a hazardous event
Exposure
the overlap in space and time of a hazardous process and infrastructure or population
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2. Mass Movement Hazards and Risk
more commonly a subject of the social sciences
f(hazard, exposure, vulnerability, coping capacity)
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3. Increasing impact of hazards is driven by
accelerating population growth (in prone areas)
associated increased demand for land resources,
urbanization
the capability of modern technology to drastically change land form and processes
change in climate
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4. Risk f(hazard, exposure, vulnerability, coping capacity) Composition
Value
Quantity
Internal
mechanisms
Vulnerability
Coping Capacity
Mechanism
Rate
Magnitude/
Frequency
Extent
Hazard
Exposure
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5. Composition Mechanism Value Rate Quantity Magnitude/ Internal
mechanisms
Vulnerability
Coping Capacity
Mechanism
Rate
Magnitude/
Frequency
Extent
Hazard
Exposure
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6. An external side influenced by:
Vulnerability has:
An external side influenced by:
Political Economy Approaches
social inequities, disproportionate division of assets
Human Ecology Perspectives
Population dynamics and environmental management capacities
Entitlement Theory
relates vulnerability to the incapacity of people to obtain or manage assets via legitimate economic means
An internal side (coping)
The capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a hazard and is influenced by:
Crisis and Conflict Theory
control of assets and resources, capacities to manage crisis situations and resolve conflicts
Action Theory Approaches
how people act and react freely as a result of social, economic or governmental constrains
Model of Access to Assets
mitigation of vulnerability through access to assets
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Ciurean et al, 2013; Bohle, 2001

7. Scales of Impact All four components of risk-
hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and coping capacity
are dynamic and can vary greatly over a range of temporal and spatial scales.
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8. Evaluating Hazard
understand and, if possible, quantify the processes that create the hazard
derive a frequency- magnitude model for the hazard
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9. Landslides at the Mount Meager massif, British Columbia,
Friele et al., 2008
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10. Variables for AnalysisPH
the probability of the hazard
PLOL
the annual probability of loss of life for an individual
PS:H
the spatial probability that the event will reach the individual
PT:S
the temporal probability of impact (the percentage of time the individual occupies the hazard area, in this case the affected part of the valley) V
the likelihood of loss of life should the individual be affected by the hazardous phenomenon, which is a function of the intensity of the process at that location E
the element of concern, in this case the number of lives potentially at risk. N
is the product of the number of elements at risk (E) and their vulnerability ( V) to the hazard under consideration
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11. As low as reasonably practical
Unacceptable
risk is generally considered unacceptable by society and requires mitigation;
As low as reasonably practical
risk from a hazard should, wherever possible, be reduced;
Broadly acceptable
risk from a hazard is within the range that society can tolerate;
Intense scrutiny region
the potential for large loss of life is low, but careful consideration is required.
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Friele et al., 2008

12. The most important concept:
Of all our abilities, we are best at predicting runout
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