What is POWERBALANCE?

1 Siren 2 PB data 8760 hr 3 Powerbalance

An approach using programmed Excel spreadsheets Step-wise reduction of power shortfalls, working left to right across columns of 8760 hours (1 year’s hourly shortfalls) Quantifies ands costs annual dispatchable energy generation from: Storage: Battery, pumped hydro, molten salt (heated by CST or biomass) Fuelled generation – gas turbines, biomass thermal Balances power with load for 8760 hours of a year. Calculates RE Scenario LCoE and CO2 emissions instantly

Dispatch Order (works left to right in Powerbalance) Non-dispatchable power Operator can ramp it down but not up! Renewable Energy Capital intensive but cheap energy Dispatchable power Operator can ramp it up and down. Storage – Capital intensive, intermediate cost energy (using cheap surplus RE) Fuelled – Low cap.cost, expensive energy 1. Wind 2. PV 3.CST 4. BM Batteries 5. Biomass - MS 6. Gas or bio-liquid fuelled OCGT’s

= if(logical test), value if true, value if false) logical formulae: = if(logical test), value if true, value if false) =IF(SUM(O33,N34)>$O$3,IF(SUM(O33,N34)<$P$4,SUM(O33,N34),$P$4),$O$3) =IF(O33>O34,O33-O34,0)

LCOE - levelised cost of energy LCOE - levelised cost of energy. Standardised way of costing a megawatt hour of energy from any technologies

How renewable energy is costed All RE, including surplus generation is costed: RE generation = MWh * technology LCoE The RE generation mix: cost-optimal percentage of wind Varies depending on the relative cost of the technologies and the technology mix: High PV cost, wind and PV only, wind is 60 – 70% Low PV cost, with PV, CST and biomass, wind is 40-50%

How dispatchable generation is costed 𝐶 𝐸𝑑 = 𝑃× 𝐶 𝑓𝑎 + 𝐸 𝑔 × 𝐶 𝑣

STORAGE How much is optimal? On the SWIS, up to 50,000 MWh (typical cold winter night’s demand from 5PM to 8 AM) is economic for lower cost options such as PHS. ‘Behind the Meter’ Batteries Molten Salt Storage (e.g. MS tank at CST plant in Nevada) Pumped Ocean Hydro (e.g 1.8 GW Ludington PHS, Lake Michigan)

Deep, prolonged shortfalls in RE generation. To provide enough energy for all shortfall periods during winter, storage would have to be increased 100-fold, increasing LCOE to >$500/ MWh. OCGT’s are the most cost effective generation capacity to cover periods of low wind and sun.

SIREN/Powerbalance modelling can answer some FAQ’s For example: Can coal on the SWIS be replaced with wind and solar and if so at what cost? Can 100% Renewable Energy be achieved and if so at what cost? What is the optimum cost effective percentage of Renewable Energy? What will be the cost of carbon abatement from switching to RE?

WA electricity generation now = 1960’s Holden WA electricity generation now = 1960’s Holden. 75% of coal generating units > 30 y.o. by 2021

50% reduction in C emissions achievable by 2021 Existing 2016

“According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the cost of energy from a new coal power plant would be $134-$203/MWh. That’s more expensive than wind, solar or highly efficient combined-cycle gas (costing $61-$118/MWh, $78-$140/MWh and $74-$90/MWh, respectively).” The Guardian, 7-2-2017

Transition from coal to > 90% RE on the SWIS grid (compared to ‘clean coal’, coal CCS and nuclear)

Can we achieve 100% renewable energy using storage alone? An RE scenario with enough surplus generation to supply all shortfalls was modelled in Powerbalance. The cheapest form of storage – PHS, with an assumed efficiency of 70% - was increased to fill all shortfalls. > 4.3 million MWh of PHS storage was required. Most of it was only be used several times per year. The resulting LCoE was > $500 per MWh.

CO2 emissions reduced by 49%,   Wind (MW) PV rooftop (MW) PV utility tracking (MW) TOTAL RE gas turbine capacity MW Scenario LCOE $/MWh) CO2 % BAU Assumed technology cost $/MWh $75 $60 $69 Close all coal 2,600 1,600 700 4,900 3,300 $102 35% Replacing coal with wind and PV on the SWIS *New HV Transmission adds $3 to the LCOE Cleaner energy CO2 emissions reduced by 49%, 6.2 million tonnes per year 3 tonnes per head of people in WA (each person taking a car off the road)

WA clean renewable electricity by 2021 = New Tesla EV – for less than the cost of a new Holden SS

SIREN is open source, free to use. To down load SIREN and Powerbalance: http://www.sen.asn.au/modelling_findings

People willing to pay more for Renewable Energy outnumber those who are not. (Newspoll, Oct 2016) Percentage of households willing to pay Amount per year (Newspoll, Oct 2016) $/year increase in power bill at average consumption c/kWh increase 28% $100 $99 1.7   $116 2 $175 3 $233 4 11% $300 $291 5 $349 6 $407 7 4% $500 $465 8 2% $1000 $524 17 PERCENTAGE WILLING TO PAY MORE 45% PERCENTAGE NOT WILLING TO PAY MORE 44% PERCENTAGE UNDECIDED

Annualized cost of transmission for 4300 MW of dispersed wind and PV , replacing all coal, is < $3/MWh, i.e. 0.3c /KWh (with interest on capital 6% /30yrs) * A '5/8' rule is applied: Transmission line capacity need only be 5/8th of the maximum capacity of all generation feeding into it. This is because it is assumed that power exceeding 5/8th of maximum will be curtailed (this amounts to less than 4% of total energy generated). For example, wind or solar power stations totalling 800 MW capacity can feed into a transmission line with only 500 MW of capacity. Note: 1000 MW of PV in metro area not included as no transmission needed