2. FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM
”OPTIMAL CAPACITY MIX FOR 100%RES POWER SYSTEM”
Jyrki Leino
Senior Manager, Power System Modelling
FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

3. OUR PERSONNEL Approximately 5,400 professionals In over 140 locations
WÄRTSILÄ Energy
WHQ in Helsinki Finland, 185years old company
OUR PERSONNEL
Approximately 5,400 professionals
In over 140 locations
In over 60 countries
FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

4. Installed power plant capacity 70 GW in 177 countries around the world
Wärtsilä energy
Installed power plant capacity 70 GW in 177 countries around the world
1854 MW
6849 MW
Europe, output:
17.6 GW
1827 MW
3771 MW
1095 MW
Asia & Middle East, output:
29.2 GW MW
4889 MW
5139 MW
Americas, output:
14 GW
2546 MW
1111 MW
9067 MW
Mature technology and global references
Africa, output:
7.4 GW
8258 MW
Utilities
IPP’s (Independent Power Producers)
5472 MW
1706 MW
3370 MW
Industrials
Municipalities, co-ops, Oil & Gas etc.
1216 MW
FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

5. Wärtsilä PLEXOS modelling Activities
OVER 70 COUNTRY AND SYSTEM STUDIES MADE BY WÄRTSILÄ ALL OVER THE WORLD
Vast modelling experience and Plexos users since 2010
PLEXOS USER SINCE 2010
= PLEXOS study made by Wärtsilä

6. OUR VISION TOWARDS A 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURE
The energy landscape is in transition towards more flexible and sustainable energy systems.
FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

7. RES prices
Price for renewable energy has reached a tipping point – all across the world Prices of renewables continue to drop
Wärtsilä Vision towards 100%RES systems
FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

8. Challenges and opportunities
100%RES Power System
Challenges and opportunities
FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

9. Main energy sources in a 100% renewable energy world
A high renewable world will require massive amounts of solar, wind and energy storage
PV will become the main energy source in the Sun Belt with 22 TWp global capacity for the power sector
RES resources are different in different countries, causes several concerns...
Solar PV based system
Wind turbines based system
Hydro power based system
Technologies mix based system
Source: Lappeenranta University of Technology
FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

10. Increasing role of flexibility
The 100% renewable energy system requires multiple forms of flexibility
SEASONAL
WEEKLY
Fuel as a form of energy storage to balance seasonal variation.
DAILY
Longer duration energy balance and system reliability is ensured by Hydro, Batteries and Flexible thermal with Power to Gas
Daily variations in generation are handled mainly by Batteries or Hydro
Different kind of challenges, daily Solar PV, Seasonal P2G
WITHOUT HYDRO
FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

11. RES 50-80% Renewables as baseload
ROLE OF TECHNOLOGIES IN THE ENERGY TRANSITION
RES 0% ”Good old days”
RES 20% Tipping point
RES 50-80% Renewables as baseload
RES 100% Final push
Renewable
Energy – wind and solar
Inflexible
Generation
Flexible
Generation
Energy
Storage
Subsidies and political decision so far from 0% to 20% - today from 0% also
50-80% level possible based on prices – requires quite a lot flexibility from thermal and some storage
100% level requires final push and seasonal storage solution
Today’s situation in many country
Inflexible generation struggles heavily
Case study
Optimal mix

12. Optimal 100%RES power system?
Case study and results
FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

13. (e.g. food, fuel, textiles...)
100%RES SYSTEM CASE STUDY
Resources
RES 100% Power System
~95%
Power to Gas
Biomass
Round trip efficiency
~85-90%
Battery
~60%
~95%
Hydro
Round trip efficiency
Demand
Storage (LNG)
Solar PV
~30%
Wind
~99%
Flexible thermal
Curtailed energy
Geothermal
~50% %
= Efficiency %
In this study
Power-to-X
(e.g. food, fuel, textiles...)
FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

14. 100%RES system modelling case
Generic greenfield PLEXOS LT model for one year (2030) with hourly dispatch
Profiles
Senegal
Germany
Scenarios for 100%RES
Solar + Battery
Solar + Wind + Battery
Solar + Wind + Battery + P2G with flexible thermal
No hydro, Geo or Biomass considered
System candidates
Solar and Wind
Batteries
P2G with Flexible thermal
FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

15. Gas consumption (G2P) Gas production (P2G)
POWER to Gas modelling – plexos setup
Gas consumption
(G2P)
Gas production (P2G)
P2G converter act as an anti-generator  running as a load
GasNode is linked to Fuel which is linked to Generator
Every time P2G converter runs gas is produced in Gas Field
Linked to Gas Field (P2G) via Constraint P2G link
FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

16. Case study: Capacities
SEN
GER
Thermal capacity factor ~12%
Highly seasonal Solar makes no sense without seasonal storage
Solar is dominant
Wind is dominant
FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

17. Case study: Energy + Curtailment + Cost
SEN
GER
SEN modest increase in LCOE, GER highly seasonal Solar x5 increase in LCOE
FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

18. Case study: Dispatch - Senegal
FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

19. Case study: Dispatch - Germany
FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

20. In 2030 100%RES system LCOE (USD/MWh) 75
Optimal ENERGY ONly 100%RES power systems x1
x2,5
x2,5
Demand
x1,2
Deterministic Energy Only Model, Hydro not considered.
PATH TO OPTIMAL 100%RES SYSTEM, hydro, biofuels, learning curves, new technologies,...?
Note: GER Solar only requires 40% storage
In %RES system LCOE (USD/MWh) 75
x0,7
x0,4
FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

21. Senior Manager, Power System Modelling
THANK you
Jyrki Leino
Senior Manager, Power System Modelling