1. The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways
July 2nd 2018
2nd International Summer School in Economic modelling of Environment, Energy and Climate
Load shifting as a demand side management technology for a 100% renewable electricity mix
Behrang SHIRIZADEH

2. 1. Equilibrium of Supply/Demand 2. Minimizing the cost
The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways July 2nd 2018
The main objectives:
1. Equilibrium of Supply/Demand
2. Minimizing the cost
*All of this with 100% renewable electricity mix
« Is it Feasible? »

3. + Offshore wind Very high load curtailment and high cost
The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways July 2nd 2018
Modelling
PV + Onshore wind + Battery Very high load curtailment, high cost, not enough land for onshore installations
+ Offshore wind Very high load curtailment and high cost
+ Hydro-electricity (run-of-river, lake and PHS storage) High load curtailment (need for a dispatchable generation technology) and high cost
+ Bioenergy (Biogas) Still high load curtailment and high cost Main issue: inter-seasonal variation of load and VRE profiles
+ Inter-seasonal storage (Hydrogen and Methane) reasonable curtailment, resonable capacities and costs.

4. The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018
INSTALLED CAPACITIES (GW)
ADEME baseline
Nega-Watt
Our Results
Offshore Wind 10 28
4.661
Onshore Wind
96.5 49
Solar PV 63
140
54.197
Biogas
0.9
15.407
Battery storage 12
0.652
PHS 7
9.3
Hydrogen/methane storage 17
32.397
DSM ?
YEARLY ENERGY PRODUCTION (TWh)
41.9
247
24.188
261.2
81.6
147
71.034 8
2.6 (+15.9 biomass) 15 -
0.006
( ) = 18.3
12.97
( )
for Gas & electricity
34.319
LCOE
49.018€/MWh
Load Curtailment
10.51%

5. The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018

6. What if we add Demand Side Management technologies? Load Shifting!
The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways July 2nd 2018
What if we add Demand Side Management technologies? Load Shifting!
Residential
22M Plug-in Hybrid and Electric vehicles in 2050,
Residential and tertiary heating to be shed to the following hour,
Intraday management of hot water heating tanks,
Washing related end uses
2. Industry
several industries: Steel, Aluminium, industrial cooling, cement, chemical, paper and pulp, chemicals, Ventilation, air conditioning, tertiary heating.
ADEME (2017)
RTE (2017)

7. What if we add Demand Side Management technologies? Load Shifting!
The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways July 2nd 2018
What if we add Demand Side Management technologies? Load Shifting!
Residential
10.7M / 22M Hybrid and Electric vehicles GW & 15.6TWh/year
75% of residential and tertiary heating can be shed to the following hour GW and 35TWh/year (but only 1 hour )
maybe without any electrical heating?
Intra-day management of hot water heating tanks GW & 6.7TWh/year
Half of the washing related end-uses of 75% of the consumers GW & 7.7TWh/year
ADEME (2017)

8. Load Shifting! Residential
The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways July 2nd 2018
Load Shifting!
Residential
Home: 5.45GW; 14.4TWh/year, CAPEX = 37€/kW investment cost: 100€/house(smart metering)+ 50€/house(communication)
Electric Vehicles: 6.7GW; 15.6TWh/year, CAPEX = 25€/kW investment cost: 50€/vehicle(communication)
Advance/delay time = 6 hours (3+ and 3-)
Lifetime = 20 years, WACC = 4%

9. The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018
Electrical heating
France is a highly thermosensitive country, with high share of electrical heating:
Barbier et al. (2018)
2016 consumption data

10. Results I. With electrical heating
The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways July 2nd 2018
Results
I. With electrical heating

11. The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018
INSTALLED CAPACITIES (GW)
ADEME baseline
Nega-Watt
No DSM
With DSM
Offshore Wind 10 28
4.661
5.176
Onshore Wind
96.5 49
Solar PV 63
140
54.197
66.282
Biogas
0.9
15.407
14.883
Battery storage 12
0.652
PHS 7
9.3
Hydrogen/methane storage 17
32.397
31.198
DSM -
12.15
YEARLY ENERGY PRODUCTION (TWh)
41.9
247
24.188
26.862
261.2
81.6
147
71.034
86.872 8
2.6 (+15.9 biomass) 15
0.006
( ) = 18.3
12.97
10.031
( )
for Gas & electricity
34.319
29.753
LCOE
49.018€/MWh
48.701€/MWh
Load curtailment
10.51%
9.65%

12. Results II. Without electrical heating
The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways July 2nd 2018
Results
II. Without electrical heating

13. The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018
INSTALLED CAPACITIES (GW)
ADEME baseline
Nega-Watt
No DSM
With DSM
With DSM – No heating
Offshore Wind 10 28
4.661
5.176
4.997
Onshore Wind
96.5 49
91.398
Solar PV 63
140
54.197
66.282
69.300
Biogas
0.9
15.407
14.883
6.604
Battery storage 12
0.652
PHS 7
9.3
Hydrogen/methane storage 17
32.397
31.198
22.314
DSM
12.15
YEARLY ENERGY PRODUCTION (TWh)
41.9
247
24.188
26.862
25.932
261.2
81.6
147
71.034
86.872
90.828 8
2.6 (+15.9 biomass) 15 -
0.006
( ) = 18.3
12.97
10.031
10.329
( )
for Gas & electricity
34.319
29.753
21.759
LCOE
49.018€/MWh
48.701€/MWh
42.316€/MWh
Avoided additional cost of electrical heating
102€/MWh
Load Curtailment
10.51%
9.65%
7.77%

14. The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways - July 2nd 2018
Conclusion
With the introduction of Load shifting, battery as a short term storage disappears
DSM decreases the load curtailement, and final cost of the system but only load shifting with no change in the consumption behaviour doesn’t have visible result.
Excluding heat demand from electricity demand results in: - much lower system costs (~6.6€/MWh less electricity cost) -less need for expensive inter-seasonal storage (~10GW less installed capacity of Methane/Hydrogen storage) -very low load curtailment (~7.5%)

16. Annex 1 model description
The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways July 2nd 2018
Annex 1
model description
Element
set
description
ℎ,ℎℎ
∈ H
Hours (starting from 0 ending in 8783) 𝑚
∈ M
Months
𝑡𝑒𝑐
∈ TEC
Electricity generation and storage technology
gen
∈ GEN ⊆ TEC
Power plants (energy production technologies)
𝑣𝑟𝑒
∈ VRE ⊆ TEC
Variable renewable energy generation technologies
str
∈ STR ⊆ TEC
Energy storage technologies
𝑓𝑟𝑟
∈ FRR ⊆ TEC
Dispatchable technologies for secondary reserves
Parameter
unit
description
𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ ℎ
[-]
A parameter to show which month each hour is in
𝑙𝑓 𝑣𝑟𝑒,ℎ
Hourly production profiles of variable renewable energies
𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 ℎ
[GW]
Hourly electricity demand profile
𝑙𝑎𝑘𝑒 𝑚
[GWh]
Monthly extractable energy from lakes
𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑟 ℎ
Hourly run-of-river power generation
𝜀 𝑣𝑟𝑒
Additional FRR requirement for renewables because of forecast errors
𝑞 𝑡𝑒𝑐 𝑒𝑥
The existing capacity of each of the technologies
𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑥 𝑡𝑒𝑐
[M€/GW/year]
Annualized capital cost of each technology
𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑥 𝑠𝑡𝑟 𝑒𝑛
[M€/GWh/year]
Annualized capital cost of energy volume for storage technologies
𝑓𝑂&𝑀 𝑡𝑒𝑐
Annualized fixed operation and maintenance cost
𝑣𝑂&𝑀 𝑡𝑒𝑐
[M€/GWh]
Variable operation and maintenance cost of each technology
𝜂 𝑠𝑡𝑟 𝑖𝑛
Charging efficiency of storage technologies
𝜂 𝑠𝑡𝑟 𝑜𝑢𝑡 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 ℎ ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔
𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑2 ℎ
[-] [GW] [GW]
Discharging efficiency of storage technologies hourly electricity demand for residential heating Hourly electricity demand profile without electrical heating

17. Annex 1 model description
The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways July 2nd 2018
Annex 1
model description
Scalar
value
description
𝑞 𝑝𝑢𝑚𝑝
9.3GW
Pumping capacity for Pumped hydro storage
𝑒 𝑃𝐻𝑆 𝑚𝑎𝑥
180GWh
Maximum energy volume can be stored in PHS reservoirs
𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑜𝑔𝑎𝑠 𝑚𝑎𝑥
15TWh
Maximum yearly energy can be generated from biogas
𝛿 𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑟𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑦 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑
0.01
Uncertainty coefficient for hourly electricity demand
𝛿 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝜂 𝑑𝑠𝑚 𝑡 𝑙𝑠
Load variation factor efficiency of load shifting advance delay limit for load shifting
variable
Unit
description
𝐺 𝑡𝑒𝑐,ℎ
GWh
Hourly electricity generation by each technology
𝑄 𝑡𝑒𝑐 GW
Yearly installed capacity of each technology
𝑆𝑇𝑂𝑅𝐴𝐺𝐸 𝑠𝑡𝑟,ℎ
Hourly energy entering to each storage technology
𝑆𝑇𝑂𝑅𝐸𝐷 𝑠𝑡𝑟,ℎ
Hourly energy stored in each technology
𝑉𝑂𝐿𝑈𝑀𝐸 𝑠𝑡𝑟 𝐷𝐷 ℎ
GWh GWh
Energy volume of storage technologies Hourly delayed demand
𝐷𝑆 ℎ
𝐷𝐻 ℎ
𝑅𝑆𝑉 𝑓𝑟𝑟,ℎ
GWh GWh GW
Hourly served demand Hourly demand on hold Hourly upward frequency restoration requirement
𝐶𝑂𝑆𝑇 b€
Overall final investment cost

18. Annex 1 model description Equations 𝐺 𝑣𝑟𝑒,ℎ = 𝑄 𝑣𝑟𝑒 × 𝑙𝑓 𝑣𝑟𝑒,ℎ (1)
The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways July 2nd 2018
Annex 1
model description
Equations 𝐺 𝑣𝑟𝑒,ℎ = 𝑄 𝑣𝑟𝑒 × 𝑙𝑓 𝑣𝑟𝑒,ℎ (1)
𝐺 𝑡𝑒𝑐,ℎ ≤ 𝑄 𝑡𝑒𝑐 (2)
𝑄 𝑓𝑟𝑟 ≥ 𝐺 𝑓𝑟𝑟,ℎ + 𝑅𝑆𝑉 𝑓𝑟𝑟,ℎ (3)
𝑆𝑇𝑂𝑅𝐸𝐷 𝑠𝑡𝑟,ℎ+1 = 𝑆𝑇𝑂𝑅𝐸𝐷 𝑠𝑡𝑟,ℎ +( 𝑆𝑇𝑂𝑅𝐴𝐺𝐸 𝑠𝑡𝑟,ℎ × 𝜂 𝑠𝑡𝑟 𝑖𝑛 )−( 𝐺 𝑠𝑡𝑟,ℎ 𝜂 𝑠𝑡𝑟 𝑜𝑢𝑡 ) (4)
𝐺 𝑠𝑡𝑟,ℎ ≤ 𝑆𝑇𝑂𝑅𝐸𝐷 𝑠𝑡𝑟,ℎ (5)
𝑆𝑇𝑂𝑅𝐸𝐷 𝑠𝑡𝑟,ℎ ≤ 𝑉𝑂𝐿𝑈𝑀𝐸 𝑠𝑡𝑟 (6)
𝑙𝑎𝑘𝑒 𝑚 ≥ 𝑓𝑜𝑟 ℎ∈𝑚 𝐺 𝑙𝑎𝑘𝑒,ℎ (7)
ℎ= 𝐺 𝑏𝑖𝑜𝑔𝑎𝑠,ℎ ≤ 𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑜𝑔𝑎𝑠 𝑚𝑎𝑥 (8)
𝐷 ℎ 𝐻 = 𝐷 ℎ−1 𝐻 + 𝐺 𝑑𝑠𝑚,ℎ − 𝐷 ℎ 𝑆 (*)
𝐷 ℎ 𝐻 = 𝑡 𝑙𝑠 =0 𝑡 𝑙𝑠 =5 𝐺 𝑑𝑠𝑚,ℎ− 𝑡 𝑙𝑠 (*)
𝐷 ℎ 𝐻 = 𝑡 𝑙𝑠 =1 𝑡 𝑙𝑠 =6 𝐷 ℎ+ 𝑡 𝑙𝑠 𝑆 (*)
𝑓𝑟𝑟 𝑅𝑆𝑉 𝑓𝑟𝑟,ℎ = 𝑣𝑟𝑒 ( 𝜀 𝑣𝑟𝑒 × 𝑄 𝑣𝑟𝑒 ) + 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 ℎ ×(1+ 𝛿 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑 )× 𝛿 𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑟𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑦 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑 (9)
𝑡𝑒𝑐 𝐺 𝑡𝑒𝑐,ℎ ≥ 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 ℎ + 𝑠𝑡𝑟 𝑆𝑇𝑂𝑅𝐴𝐺𝐸 𝑠𝑡𝑟,ℎ + 𝐷 ℎ 𝑆 (10)
𝐶𝑂𝑆𝑇= 𝑡𝑒𝑐 𝑄 𝑡𝑒𝑐 − 𝑞 𝑡𝑒𝑐 𝑒𝑥 × 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑥 𝑡𝑒𝑐 + 𝑠𝑡𝑟 ( 𝑉𝑂𝐿𝑈𝑀𝐸 𝑠𝑡𝑟 × 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑥 𝑠𝑡𝑟 𝑒𝑛 )+ 𝑡𝑒𝑐 (𝑄 𝑡𝑒𝑐 × 𝑓𝑂&𝑀 𝑡𝑒𝑐 ) + 𝑡𝑒𝑐 ℎ ( 𝐺 𝑡𝑒𝑐,ℎ × 𝑣𝑂&𝑀 𝑡𝑒𝑐 ) 𝑡𝑒𝑐 𝑄 𝑡𝑒𝑐 − 𝑞 𝑡𝑒𝑐 𝑒𝑥 × 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑥 𝑡𝑒𝑐 + 𝑠𝑡𝑟 ( 𝑉𝑂𝐿𝑈𝑀𝐸 𝑠𝑡𝑟 × 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑥 𝑠𝑡𝑟 𝑒𝑛 )+ 𝑡𝑒𝑐 (𝑄 𝑡𝑒𝑐 × 𝑓𝑂&𝑀 𝑡𝑒𝑐 ) + 𝑡𝑒𝑐 ℎ ( 𝐺 𝑡𝑒𝑐,ℎ × 𝑣𝑂&𝑀 𝑡𝑒𝑐 ) / (11)

19. Annex 2 Input data references
The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways July 2nd 2018
Annex 2
Input data references
Hourly electricity demand for RTE (French transmission network operator)
Yearly demand profile estimations ADEME (French environment and energy proficciency agency)
VRE profiles from meteorology data Renewables.ninja
Generation technology costs EU Joint Research Centre – Institute for Energy and Transport
Storage technology costs FCH JU (fuel cell and hydrogen joint undertaking) and 32 companies and McKinsey & Company

20. Annex 3 VRE Input Data https://www.renewables.ninja/
The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways July 2nd 2018
Annex 3
VRE Input Data
Hourly Wind and Solar power generation (kW output) from 2000 to 2016 for the whole Europe
Geofraphical precision up to °
Meteoroligical data from MERRA-2 (NASA)
For wind power Installed capacity, Hub height and Turbine model can be specified.
For solar power Installed capacity, System loss (by default 10%), Tracking (Azimuth, Tilt & Azimuth or none), Tilt (by default35°) and Azimuth (by default 180°) can be specified.

21. Annex 4 Cost Decomposition
The role of demand and lifestyles in low carbon pathways July 2nd 2018
Annex 4
Cost Decomposition
Technology
Annuity (€/kW/year)
Fixed O&M (€/kW/year)
Variable O&M (€/MWh)
Storage Capex (€/kWh/year)
Offshore wind farm
77.4
Onshore wind farm
28.6
Solar PV
10.88
Hydroelectricity – lake 22
Hydroelectricity – run-of-river
84.3
Bioenergy (biogas from Anaerobic digestion)
55.2
3.1
Pumped hydro storage (PHS) 4 8
0.2261
Battery storage (Li-Ion batteries) 10
2.6
26.548
Hydrogen (Electrolysis + Cumbustion/fuel cell) 20
0.018
Methanation (Electrolysis + Methanation + Combustion)
103.5
Demand Side Management (Load shifting)
2.2521