1. SEN’s research on a transition from coal to renewable energy in the South West Interconnected System (SWIS)
For Mick Murray, MLA December 21st 2016
SEN members:
Steve Gates
Len Bunn
Rob Phillips

2. Outline Background Results Collie transition Energy security
Role of Government
Conclusion

3. Overview
SEN’s modelling shows that Western Australia can make a transition to a renewable energy future:
equivalent cost to business as usual
improved energy security
economic transition plan for Collie
Australia needs to meet its climate change commitments and reduce Carbon emissions
2016 hottest year on record - increasing climate disasters
Paris accord - Australia 28% reduction by 2030
What we’re going to talk about today

4. In Western Australia Renewable Energy Target (RET) target in WA
much cheaper to install RE than pay for large-scale generation certificates (LGC’s)
Jobs and growth
20 billion investment over 15 years
Price stability
Wholesale price of electricity will be no higher than replacing existing coal plants
Why we are doing this

5. ‘SEN Integrated Renewable Energy Network’ (SIREN) software
To model renewable power and storage technologies
SIREN uses
NASA weather data,
Geographical Information System data
US Dept. of Energy technology models
Quantify and cost energy generation, storage and CO2 emissions
Provides balanced, costed RE scenarios
A little bit about SIREN

6. SIREN & PB
1 Siren
2 PB data
8760 hr
Briefly
3 Powerbalance

7. Outline Background Results Collie transition Energy security
Role of Government
Conclusion

8. WA electricity generation now = 1960’s Holden
Kingswood

9. WA’s aging coal power stations on the SWIS are due for replacement
(note: Bluewaters could be closed in 2030 aged 21 years)
Coal Age (WA)

10. Key Messages
Transition to wind and solar PV is happening and accelerating

11. The Solar PV ‘Duck Curve’

12. Key Messages
Transition to wind and solar PV is happening and accelerating
Coal will be displaced by PV, wind and flexible gas
PV and wind generation costs less than new coal
There are more jobs in wind, PV and biomass than in coal
Most of these jobs could be in the Collie region……..

13. Specifics Muja ABCD and Collie power stations can be retired by 2021
50% CO2 emissions saved, 6.2 million tonnes per year
Blue water plants can be replaced at an appropriate time
63% CO2 emissions saved
Increase in wholesale cost of electricity - approx. 2c per kWh (20%)
8% increase in retail tariff
less than if the coal power stations were replaced
91% reduction in emissions is feasible by 2030 by adding storage and OCGT (Open Cycle Gas Turbine) capacity

14. Tesla WA clean renewable electricity by 2021 =
New Tesla EV – for the same price as a new Holden
Tesla

15. In the next 5 years For WA: For Collie Region:
2300 MW of new wind and 900 MW of new solar PV (increasing total RE to 4200 MW)
For Collie Region:
1000 – 1400 MW of Wind to the east and west (up to 7 Collgar windfarms) and up to 200 MW of utility scale PV
Enormous economic benefits for the WA economy:
Several thousand new jobs in construction and manufacturing; several hundred net new permanent jobs
$ 7.1 billion of private investment in wind and PV
$1 billion in new transmission lines

16. Outline Background Results Collie transition Energy security
Role of Government
Conclusion

17. Higher agricultural land east of Collie and Kojonup and coastal plain west of Harvey; 1500 MW of wind would easily fit in these 3 areas
Wind Farms
Collie

18. Jobs An energy jobs revolution 1300 new permanent jobs
(600 more than currently in coal)
6,500 construction and manufacturing jobs for 5 years

19. How to make a just transition for Collie ?
Short term 5 year
Package for coal workers
Options for redundancy, retraining in wind installation, mine rehabilitation, tourism
Installation hub
Construction base at Collie for > 1000 MW of wind.
Fabrication industries
Wind turbine towers and blades - at Kemerton, Collie or Bunbury
Framing for solar panels

20. Potential in the longer term (10 years)
Biomass power generation at Collie
Biomass pellet export industry at Collie
New rail Collie to Wagin / Katanning transporting biomass from the 600 mm Southern Agricultural area

21. New Renewable Jobs 1 Construction and Installation (Job years/MW)
2 Manufacturing (job years/MW)
3 Operations and Maintenance (job years/MW)
4 Transmission (734 km, $0.95 billion)
5 Pro-rata Hazelwood, 800 jobs for 1600 MW.
6 Per annum over 5 years
7 Per annum over 5 years - estimate of jobs in WA
8 Permanent jobs over and above coal jobs 21

22. Map of Wind and PV installation

23. Collgar Pic

24. Collgar Wind Farm $750 million project 111 wind turbines
$750 million project
111 wind turbines
approximately 25km south east of Merredin
generation capacity of 206 Megawatts.
Construction phase
employed up to 150 people over two years
Ongoing employment:
10-20 locally-based staff
Landholders are paid:
$4,000 to $8,000 per turbine
$3,000 to $4,000 per MW, or 2-4% of gross revenues
Australian owned – by two superannuation funds

26. Outline Background Results Collie transition Energy security
Role of Government
Conclusion

27. Energy Security in a Renewable Grid
Frequency stability in response to load fluctuations can be provided by:
Dispatchable synchronous generators
Open Cycle Gas Turbines
Combined Cycle Gas Turbines
Steam or diesel
Modern battery systems - dedicated on-grid bi-directional inverter connected batteries
Currently too expensive to meet all shortfall with storage
Traditional approaches – OCGT, CCGT, etc.
New approaches - OCGT’s running in isochronous mode, battery

28. Open Cycle Gas Turbines
5- 15% of energy
Ramp from cold start to full load in 6 – 13 minutes
In Metro and industrial areas
1 in 6 equipped to run as ‘synchronous compensators’
Expensive, but quick
Energy cost $ $550 / MWh
Can use many fuels – gas, bio-oil, bio-ethanol, bio-gas

29. Wind and PV generation is predictable in advance
Forecasting wind and solar is increasingly accurate
Australian Wind Energy Forecasting System (AWEFS)
Accurate forecasts of wind generation down to 5 minutes in advance
Proven accuracy world-wide
Allows adequate time for dispatch of stored or fuelled energy to compensate for falling RE generation

30. Modelled Scenarios
Alastair to provide new version with Carbon reduction on different axis.

31. Outline Background Results Collie transition Energy security
Role of Government
Conclusion

32. RENEWABLE ENERGY TRANSITION Planning Agency.
Transitioning
WA needs a
RENEWABLE ENERGY TRANSITION Planning Agency.
100% :
Wind-PV-Batt +CST
+ MS storage
+Biomass
+ bio-oil OCGT
2026 > 75% RE
Wind PV
BM Battery
Gas OCGT
% RE
Coal
Gas
Starting Wind, PV
% RE
Wind-PV-Batt
+PHS
+ Bio-oil OCGT
$85 MWh
Generates at night

33. Renewable Targets

34. Role of Government
Enact an Office of Renewable Energy, to plan transition to RE
Retain WA Government control of Western Power to facilitate optimal transition to a renewable electricity system
Balancing generators (OCGT and utility-scale storage) should all be owned by the Govt. (Synergy)
Renewable Energy is sensibly provided by the open market
attractive long-term ‘fortress assets’ for superannuation funds and other investors

35. Outline Background Results Collie transition Energy security
Role of Government
Conclusion

36. Key Messages The older SWIS coal generators are overdue for retirement
Over a 15 year time scale, up to 85% penetration of RE in the electricity system will cost less than installing new coal or gas
Wholesale prices will increase in any case:
Increasing gas prices
Increasing maintenance costs on old coal plants
Decreasing transmission across the SWIS
Over time, prices will decrease
no ongoing fuel costs
technological advances and economies of scale

37. Conclusion
Change in the electricity generation and supply market is inevitable
Business As Usual will not enable a stable, just transition
Roadmap to transition the Collie community from coal-fired to renewable electricity generation
increasing employment in construction, manufacturing, operations and maintenance
Can use SEN’s modelling to test renewable generation in other locations
to suit the local political context

38. A bit of history
In the 1950s the US Railway industry fought against airlines
They wanted to protect trains
They should have realised they were in the Transport industry
Is Collie in the Coal industry
Or is it in the Energy industry?

39. Finally Get ahead of the game!
Start the transition now, so Collie is ready before the change comes

40. Government policies for clean energy
WA State renewable electricity target > 85% by 2030 and develop a detailed transition plan
Phase out all existing coal and base load gas generation, replacing it with RE capacity, according to a master plan
Energy market reform - to facilitate wider adoption of power purchase agreements (PPAs) by reverse auctions. (Federal Government through the AEMO)
Convert consumers to standardised smart meters, with both user and utility interface capability
Design and implement tariff structures and or mechanisms to incentivise the uptake of energy storage with rooftop PV on premises.
Identify, incentivise and implement innovative energy use optimisation strategies
Plan, locate and commence installation of large utility scale storage
Commercial-scale sustainable woody biomass (oil mallee) production on farms
Plan and establish commercial-scale production of sustainable renewable fuels using cheap surplus RE and or biomass
Too much text. Reduce.