1. Beyond the Death Spiral
Transitioning to renewable energy in WA
Bill Grace

2. The Death Spiral
While this picture identifies some of the feedback processes, it misses some (eg utilities lose revenue but also have reduced costs) and can’t quantify the effects. Only simulation of a dynamic model can do this.

3. Context

4. Recent Energy Demand and Intensity
Both peak demands and average network load have plateaued in recent years
System capacity is around 40% higher than peak demand
Energy prices have been, and will continue to rise
Electricity use per $ of Gross State Product is dropping at around 1% pa

5. Growth of household solar

6. Solar arrays increasing in size
Commercial systems starting to come on line

7. Unit cost of solar PV Private storage is on the horizon
Source: Solar Choice
Private storage is on the horizon

8. A systems dynamics model of the SWIS

10. Main monthly model used to produce results at the economy wide scale
Main monthly model used to produce results at the economy wide scale. Draws on information in a separate hourly model.

11. Demand assumptions Economic growth of 3% pa;
Population growth (represented by housing growth) of 2.1% pa;
The recent reductions in energy intensity (approximately 1% pa) continue

12. Uptake of solar and storage
Solar cost curve (excl STCs)
Storage cost curve
Take-up rate

13. Initial demand

14. Initial household solar
2.4 kW solar – no storage
Model assumes no business solar initially

15. Model results – solar growth with storage

16. ~50%
60%
Residential Solar premises
Commercial Solar premises
Ave 5.3 kW
Ave 10.6 kWh
Ave 110 kW
Ave 174 kWh
Solar capacity
Storage capacity

17. Solar growth
AEMO forecast
Model result

18. Source: US DoE
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Sunwiz

19. Implications

20. Network impacts – solar + storage
Maximum hourly network loads
January day network loads (2034)

21. Network loads Minimum hourly network loads
Solar only
Solar + storage
Minimum hourly network loads
Percentage of hours in each month that network loads reach over-generation and zero generation points

22. What will happen?
When private solar energy generation exceeds total demand?
Curtailed by the network operator - no network storage capacity
Zero marginal cost, emission free power would be substituted by highly polluting, expensive fossil fuel based generation
This would be a perverse outcome!

23. Towards 100% renewables

24. Blakers (NEM)
Wind and PV contributes about 90% of annual electricity, while existing hydroelectricity and biomass contributes about 10%.
Historical data for demand for
NEM demand remains stable at 205 TWh per year
Batteries are excluded (although “batteries located in homes and electric cars may contribute very substantially to future energy storage”)

25. Blakers (NEM)
Demand 205,000 GWh Rooftop solar 17,000 MW (currently ~ 4,500 MW) Utility solar 6,000 MW Wind 45,000 MW Hydro 7,400 MW Biomass 600 MW Storage 450,000 MWh (pumped hydro)

26. SEN Scenario 3 Demand = 2014 values x 1.26 = 23,000 GWh by 2030
Wind 6,000 MW
Solar PV 3,000 MW
OCGT (bio-oil) 3,300 MW
Total 12,300 MW
Battery storage 8,000 MWh
PH storage 42,000 MWh

27. Grace By 2030 6,000 MW private solar = 9,400 GWh
i.e. 37% of projected demand
By 2050
20,000 MW solar = 32,000 GWh !!
i.e. 85% of projected demand
if it can be stored and shared
In future most energy will be generated onsite

28. The duck curve

29. 100% renewables by 2030

30. 100% renewables by 2040

31. 100% renewables by 2050
2050

32. Consider 100% renewables by 2050

33. By 2020 Renewables meeting 22% of demand Storage
1,550 MW private solar (2,500 GWh)
635 MW wind generation (2,105 GWh) - LRET target of 23.5%
Storage
135 MWh onsite battery storage
No network storage

34. 2020 system

35. 2020 system
January day
July day

36. By 2030 Renewables meeting 50% of demand Storage
6,000 MW private solar (10,000 GWh)
750 MW wind generation (2,500 GWh)
Storage
5,000 MWh onsite battery storage
No network storage – avoided by additional wind generation

37. 2030 system

38. 2030 system
January day
July day

39. By 2040 Renewables meeting 75% of demand Storage
13,000 MW private solar (20,500 GWh)
750 MW wind generation (2,500 GWh)
Storage
18,000 MWh onsite battery storage
22,000 MWh network storage

40. 2040 system

41. 2040 system
January day
July day

42. 2040 system storage

43. By 2050 Renewables meeting 100% of demand Storage
20,000 MW private solar (32,000 GWh)
2,250 MW wind generation (7,500 GWh)
2,500 MW OCGT fuelled by renewables
Storage
32,000 MWh onsite battery storage
32,000 MWh network storage

44. 2050 system

45. 2050 system
January day
July day

46. 2050 system
Network storage

47. Technologies

48. Large scale renewables

49. What’s available when you need it?
January day
July day

50. Impact on network storage
Meeting the residual network loads using large scale solar PV requires double the amount of storage as is required for a wind resource
Wave energy could be a valuable complement to wind energy, as its constancy is very high and its performance during the winter is superior to other sources
Similar results with
2,250 MW wind, or
1,500 MW wind MW wave

51. Thermal generation
Required to avoid massive storages in winter / spring
SEN - state of the art ‘aero-derivative’ turbines with the capability to run on bio-diesel derived from oil mallee
Biogas also a possibility
By 2050 Perth households will be producing around 4.5m tonnes of organic wastes
Enough biogas to generate around 1,000 GWh of electricity, (60% of the projected requirement)
If organic wastes from wastewater treatment plants and animal manure are added, it is likely that biogas could provide most or all of the feedstock necessary
Simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the natural decomposition of organics in landfill.

52. Network storage Pumped hydro the logical technology (SEN & Blakers)
Cliff-top ponds and the ocean
Perth’s water supply dams - now almost redundant as sources of supply
40% of the capacity of just 5 dams would provide 32,000 MWh storage
Lower reservoirs and turbines only needed

53. A fully integrated electricity system

54. The world as we knew it
Image from AEMO

55. Future integrated energy system 100% renewable energy by 2050
Large scale battery storage
Wind / wave / tidal
Transmission s/station
Distribution s/station
CSP
Household and business solar & battery storage
Large scale energy storage

56. Key questions to be answered
Shift the network focus from distribution to management (incl voltage and frequency control)
Integrate network management and operation (fundamental re-design of the WEM)
Integrate the LRET and SRES
Work out how to pay for network storage