1. NS4960 Spring Term, 2018 China: Expanded Renewables
Oxford Analytica China Coal Trends Signal Deep Economic Shifts, April 2016

2. Overview
Government has announced a $363 billion investment program in renewable energy
Part of its 13th Five-Year Plan ( )
Continues the twin strategies of
Increasing the share of non-fossil fuel in the energy mix and
Supporting the growth and internationalization of China's renewable energy manufacturing industry

3. Chinese Five Year Plans I
The Eleventh Five Year Plan ( ) placed great emphasis on reducing energy intensity
The Twelfth highlighted the need to invest in renewable energy, particularly wind and solar
Goals were
Containing the rise of carbon dioxide emissions
Reducing air pollution and
Promoting the renewable energy manufacturing industry
The government supported this strategy by
introducing feed-in tariffs (payments for energy users for the renewable electricity they generate) for the first time and
Investing billions of renminbi in renewable energy research and development and manufacturing

4. Chinese Five Year Plans II
The installed capacity of grid connected wind energy and solar PV in 2015 exceeded the planned targets giving China the largest wind and solar PV capacity in the world.
Total non-fossil fuel capacity doubled (including hydro, nuclear and biomass) taking the share from 27% to 35% of the national total
China also became the leading manufacturer by quantity, flooding the international market and driving down prices for wind and solar equipment

5. Chinese Five Year Plans III
However actual availability of renewable electricity did not match the success in constructing new generating capacity.
Hydroelectricity generation fluctuates annually, depending on rainfall
Wind farms and solar arrays have been contributing an unexpectedly small amount of electricity owing to
Poor location
Technical failures and
Lack of connection to the grid
Even as these problems were solved, the grid companies remained unwilling to prioritize use of renewable energy generating capacity because of the high cost and the lack of flexible load to balance the intermittency

6. Chinese Five Year Plans IV
The 13th Five Year Plan ( )
Released in April 2016 set objectives for
Reducing carbon dioxide emissions intensity by 18% and
Increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in total primary consumption from 12% to 15%
An estimated 2.5 trillion renminbi is to be spent on
500 billion renminbi on hydro
700 billion on wind
1 trillion on different forms of solar power and
The rest on biomass, solar water heating and geothermal power
The investment program is expected to create 3 million new jobs bringing the total in the renewable energy sector to 13 million

7. Chinese Five Year Plans V
Notable features of the new plan includes
A slowdown in the construction of conventional hydro capacity
A new emphasis on pump-storage hydro and
A surge in the growth of solar PV and solar thermal capacity
Shift of emphasis away from constructing large-scale hydroelectric plants may reflect a belated recognition of the social and environmental costs of such projects
Priority given to pump-storage hydro is in response to the shortage of reactive power rto balance the growing capacity in intermittent renewable energy

8. Chinese Five Year Plans VI
The planned increase of capacity in solar PV and solar thermal capacity results from the realization that these technologies offer huge opportunities in large parts of the country -- provided appropriate economic incentives are put in place.
Likely that targets for installed capacity will be met
Wider challenge is to maximize the actual use of non-fossil-fuel generating capacity
At a time of slower and less energy intensive economic growth and
When more than 200 GW of coal-firec capacity is still under construction

9. Chinese Five Year Plans VII
During 2016
Curtailment rates for wind and solar PV exceeded 40% in some provinces and
Some nuclear power stations were used to provide following load rather than bas e load
Nuclear power stations operate most efficiently if they are generating electricity all of the time
However in China some are only used when coal-fired plants cannot supply sufficient power to meet demand

10. Assessment
The Five-Year Plan sends a clear signal that China is serious about developing renewable energy both as a
manufacturing industry and
form of energy
The challenge for the industry is to improve technical reliability and sophistication
The challenge for the government is to maximize the
use of installed renewable generating capacity by the grid and
Consumption of non-fossil fuel electricity