1. Austin Electricity Conference Austin, Texas April 12, 2018
Achieving High Renewable Penetration with Grid-Friendly Operations
Austin Electricity Conference
Austin, Texas
April 12, 2018
Arne Olson, Senior Partner

2. 2013 California utility study found that 50%+ RPS penetrations are feasible
50% (and higher) renewable penetration is feasible, under one condition:
Renewables must be dispatchable based on the needs of the system
Renewable dispatch has little to no cost*
Lost PTC and REC values
Curtailment increases at higher penetrations
Significantly impacts economics of incremental investments
Portfolio diversity, flexible loads, flexible thermal generation, energy storage become interesting
Source: E3, “Investigating a High RPS in California,”

3. Solar can be operated very flexibly Results from CAISO/NREL/First Solar demo
Demo of 300 MW solar project in California
Solar PV resources with smart inverters and advanced plant controls can enhance reliability by providing:
Essential reliability services during periods of over-supply, e.g. Regulation
Voltage support (daytime and nighttime)
Fast frequency response
Frequency response for low and high freq. events

4. Mix of Overbuild and Storage
Optimal portfolio minimizes cost by balancing investment in solutions against increasing renewable curtailment
Mix of Overbuild and Storage
All Overbuild
All Storage

5. Over 100 GW of solar and 50 GW of storage by 2050
California’s long-term strategy looks like a mix of solar and batteries
Over 100 GW of solar and 50 GW of storage by 2050
Nearly 40 GW of solar by 2030
Electric sector reduces emissions to 20 MMT by 2050 while serving much higher loads from electrification
Other regions may have a different mix

6. Solar is the new hydro
Curtailment of solar will become routine and commonplace
Occasional spill is a reality at every hydroelectric facility
Solar can be operated very flexibly
Solar must contribute to meeting grid needs
Abundant, low-cost solar power will become the dominant issue for planning and investment in the West

7. Natural gas generation will still be needed for reliability and is a good complement to hydro/wind/solar
Gas generation is dispatched to help meet electric loads during cold weather events
Cold Winter Day under 80% Reduction
Without thermal generation, there is not enough energy to serve load during all hours
Cold Winter Day Without Gas
Production capacity
Actual production
Energy from Zero-Carbon Resources
Pacific Northwest: most challenging conditions system are multi-day cold snaps that occur during drought years
Wind and solar production tends to be very low during these conditions, even under “100%” RPS
Absent a technology breakthrough, gas generation appears to be needed for reliability

8. Thank You!
Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3) Montgomery Street, Suite San Francisco, CA Tel
Arne Olson, Senior Partner