Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist Ag Outlook Goose Lake, Iowa Jan. 20, 2017 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

2017 2016 2015 Data Source: USDA/ERS

2017 Beef Cattle Situation Transition to larger beef supplies in 2016 has been challenging Cow-calf: Converging toward long-term levels Herd expansion slowed, stalled, or stopped? Stocker: Varies widely across situations Opportunities vs. risk of owning cattle and managing risk Feedlot: Worst behind us (I think), still red ink Structural concerns—excess capacity, price discovery, etc.

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

Top 10, 2015 to 2016 Head % TX +160,000 +3.9% OK +73,000 MO +61,000 +3.3% NE +96,000 +5.5% SD +79,000 +4.9% KS +4.3% MT -10,000 -0.7% KY +24,000 +2.4% IA +40,000 +4.4% FL +9,000 +1.0% Total 593,000 +3.5% Data Source: USDA/NASS

Projections for 11/6/15 9/2/16 9/27/16 11/1/16 2016 $300 $78 $15 -$30 2017 $86 $22 -$29 Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

Data Source: USDA/AMS

2013 = -$59.43 [-$155 to +$77] 2014 = +$197.24 [+$41 to +$269] 2015 = -$225.12 [-$530 to +$43] 2016f = -$116.52 [-$359 to +$113] 2017f = -$36.05 [-$115 to +$111]

U.S. Beef Exports, Jan-Nov 2016 (Volume excluding by-products & variety meats) Year-to-Date Country 1,000 lbs Percent Japan 98,130 19% South Korea 110,764 38% Mexico 27,796 8% Canada -18,363 -6% Hong Kong -17,692 China (Taiwan) 23,042 23% Netherlands -4,269 -12% Chile 1,871 Philippines -6,846 -23% Vietnam 4,920 45% Dominican Republic -4,239 -21% United Arab Emirates 1,150 Italy -3,000 -18% Guatemala 3,010 33% Other Countries 9,881 9% Total 226,153 11% WASDE U.S.: 2015: 2,265 mil lbs 2016: 2,484 (+10%) 2017: 2,630 (+6%) Source: USDA/ERS

U.S. Beef Imports, Jan-Nov 2016 (Volume excluding by-products & variety meats) Year-to-Date Country 1,000 lbs Percent Australia -477,829 -40% Canada 85,879 15% New Zealand -42,970 -7% Mexico 84,402 23% Nicaragua 7,903 8% Brazil -6,823 -5% Uruguay -17,579 -14% Costa Rica -12 0% Other Countries -2,509 -21% Total -369,538 -12% WASDE U.S.: 2015: 3,371 mil lbs 2016: 3,021 (-10%) 2017: 2,680 (-11%) Source: USDA/ERS

2017 Pork Situation Record production. Processing capacity squeeze. Demand is always an important driver. But we first need to understand supply dynamics. Lower hog and pig prices have likely raised the red flag on further expansion, at least for now. Longer-term additional expansion is quite possible Low feed grain prices, packer competition Revisions to H&P report complicate analysis

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center

2013 = +$6.21 [-$25.60 to +$24.57] 2014 = +$61.85 [+$13.15 to +$107.25] 2015 = +$7.93 [-$18.40 to +$26.25] 2016f = -$1.03 [-$35.52 to +$32.92] 2017f = +$2.48 [-$14.24 to +$22.50]

Source: USDA/AMS. * Steve Meyer, EMI.

U.S. Packing Capacity Under Construction New (proposed) pork Fall 2016 Fall 2017 Fall 2018 Fall 2018 – TSF Doubled packing plants Daily Annual Pleasant Hope, MO 2,500 625,000 Windom, MN 4,000 1,000,000 Sioux City, IA 12,000 3,000,000 20,000 5,000,000 Coldwater, MI 10,000 2,500,000 Wright County, IA Total 6,500 1,625,000 28,500 7,125,000 38,500 9,625,000 46,500 11,625,000 Head per week 31,250 137,019 185,096 223,558 % of '15 avg = 2.195 mil 1.4% 6.2% 8.4% 10.2 % % of '15 max = 2.507 mil 1.2% 5.5% 7.4% 8.9 % July 19, 2016 Source: Steve Meyer. Published in National Hog Farmer Magazine.

Source: USDA/AMS

U.S. Pork Exports, Jan-Nov 2016 (Volume excluding by-products & variety meats) Year-to-Date Country 1,000 lbs Percent Mexico 16,874 1% Japan -55,946 -5% Canada 5,774 China (Mainland) 234,167 100% South Korea -92,915 -21% Australia 9,041 6% Hong Kong 25,740 23% Colombia 32 0% Philippines 3,603 5% Honduras 10,307 18% Dominican Republic 7,538 13% Chile 4,245 11% Guatemala 2,252 Panama 2,728 Other Countries -13,794 -8% Total 159,646 3% WASDE U.S.: 2015: 5,009 mil lbs 2016: 5,179 (+3%) 2017: 5,440 (+5%) Source: USDA/ERS

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil. acres) 95.4 90.6 88.0 94.0 90.0 Yield (bu./acre) 158.1 171.0 168.4 174.6 170.8 Production (mil. bu.) 13,829 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,060 Beg. Stocks 821 1,232 1,731 1,737 2,355 Imports 36 32 67 55 50 Total Supply 14,686 15,479 15,401 16,940 16,465 Feed & Residual 5,040 5,280 5,131 5,600 5,500 Ethanol 5,124 5,200 5,206 5,325 Food, Seed, & Other 1,369 1,401 1,429 1,435 1,440 Exports 1,920 1,867 1,898 2,225 1,950 Total Use 13,454 13,748 13,664 14,585 14,215 Ending Stocks 2,250 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.46 3.70 3.61 3.40 3.30 Source: USDA-WAOB 2013-16, USDA-OCE 2017 20 20

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil. acres) 76.8 83.3 82.7 83.4 85.5 Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 47.5 48.0 52.1 47.9 Production (mil. bu.) 3,358 3,927 3,926 4,307 4,050 Beg. Stocks 141 92 191 197 420 Imports 72 33 24 25 30 Total Supply 3,570 4,052 4,140 4,528 4,500 Crush 1,734 1,873 1,886 1,930 1,935 Seed & Residual 107 146 122 128 130 Exports 1,638 1,842 1,936 2,050 2,100 Total Use 3,478 3,862 3,944 4,108 4,165 Ending Stocks 336 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 13.00 10.10 8.95 9.50 9.35 Source: USDA-WAOB 2013-16, USDA-OCE 2017 21 21

Corn Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Soy Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Drought Monitor Source: National Drought Mitigation Center 24 24

South American Weather Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center 25 25

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 26 26

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 27 27

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 28 28

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Change in Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Change in Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

Current Corn Futures 4.05 3.92 3.56 Source: CME Group, 1/19/2017

Current Soybean Futures 10.12 10.05 9.62 Source: CME Group, 1/19/2017

2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields

2017/18 Crop Margins

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

AVERAGE VALUES all farmland 1941−2016 $7,183 As of Nov 16 -5.9%

% Change in Nominal Iowa Farmland Values 1942-2016

Land Values by District and Land Quality, Nov 2016 Average Value % Change High Quality Medium Quality Low Quality Northwest $9,243 -4.6% $10,650 -5.2% $8,468 -4.1% $6,019 -3.7% North Central $7,562 -5.0% $8,442 -5.9% $6,992 -4.9% $5,164 -3.9% Northeast $7,313 -7.0% $8,892 -7.1% $6,994 -6.2% $4,847 -7.5% West Central $7,358 -8.7% $8,874 -8.4% $6,870 -9.4% $4,577 -9.9% Central $7,841 -7.8% $9,299 $7,186 -7.4% $5,158 -2.5% East Central $7,917 -6.9% $9,502 -7.6% $7,396 -6.8% $5,153 -4.0% Southwest $6,060 $7,527 -6.3% $5,683 $4,189 2.9% South Central $4,241 -3.6% $5,980 -7.2% $4,128 $2,892 5.2% Southeast $6,716 -2.6% $9,265 -2.8% $6,283 $3,783 -0.4%   Iowa Avg. $7,183 $8,758 -6.5% $6,705 $4,665 -3.5%

Land Values by County, 2016

Percent Changes in Land Values from Nov 2015

Iowa Farmland Sale Activity Relative to Last Year 1985-2016

Farmland supply tends to be tighter in down years

Limited farmland supply tends to bolster land values Farm Credit Service of America

Iowa Farmland Purchases by Buyer Types 1989-2016

Source: Purdue Ag Barometer

A replay of 1920s or 1980s farm crisis? Source: USDA-ERS, Ag DM C2-70, Zhang and Beek (2016) Farm Policy Journal

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/