June 14, 2016 Northern Virginia Economic Performance and Outlook Terry L. Clower, Ph.D. Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy & Government.

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Presentation transcript:

June 14, 2016 Northern Virginia Economic Performance and Outlook Terry L. Clower, Ph.D. Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy & Government George Mason University Presentation to Prince William County Chamber of Commerce

Annual Job Change Washington MSA, (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Apr 2015 – Apr 2016 Washington +2.3% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Professional & Business Services Washington MSA (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Apr-16 Total: Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Federal Procurement in the Washington MSA $ Billions | | | < 01–10 = $563.5B | TOTAL = $1,235.9 Billion Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov 71.2

Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change by Sector Apr 2015 – Apr 2016 Northern Virginia (000s)Total 31,700 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

6.3 – DC 5.0 – U.S. 4.2 – SMD 4.1 – MSA NVA Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)

(000s) Annual Job Change – MOTYC Prince William County Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change by Sector Sep 2014 – Sep 2015 Prince William County (000s) Total = 4,502 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change by Sector Dec 2010 – Sep 2015 Prince William County (000s) Total = 5,710 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Component Births6,874 Deaths(1,753) Net International Migration2,647 Net Domestic Migration(1,016) Residual(37) Total6,715 Population Change by Component, , Prince William Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Commuting Patterns Prince William County 2014 Source: US Census Bureau

Where Workers Live Source: US Census Bureau

Where Residents Work Source: US Census Bureau

Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: April 2016 Economic Outlook (GRP), Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) DC SM MSA NV %

Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (000s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change = 36,000 Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (January 2016) NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV.

Thank You cra.gmu.edu