HURRICANE PATRICIA: LARGEST STORM OF 2015 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON OCTOBER 23, 2015 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna,

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Presentation transcript:

HURRICANE PATRICIA: LARGEST STORM OF 2015 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON OCTOBER 23, 2015 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

PATRICIA: A CAT 5 STORM HEADS FOR LANDFALL IN MEXICO A RECORD STORM WITH WINDS OF kph affecting Colima, Jalisco Nayarit, and states in center of Mexico

FROM A TROPICAL STORM TO A CAT 5 IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS A HUGE RAINMAKER BIG STORM SURGE

PREPARATION BEGINS Residents of a stretch of Mexico's Pacific Coast dotted with resorts and fishing villages boarded up homes and bought supplies ahead of Friday's arrival of Hurricane Patricia, the strongest storm ever recorded in the Western hemisphere.

JAILSCO Those on the coast will be in the most danger, especially people living in the state of Jalisco, which has a population of more than 7.3 million

EVACUATIONS UNDERWAY Tens of thousands of people are being evacuated from Mexico's Pacific coast in anticipation of landfall later today (Friday—Oct. 23 rd )

FLOOD WARNINGS IN TEXAS The US National Weather Service placed large parts of Texas that are home to more than 10 million people under a flash flood watch on Friday as storms were expected to drop as much as 40 cm (15 inches) or more of rain throughout the weekend.

HURRICANES Planet Earth’s atmospheric- hydrospheric- lithospheric interactions create TROPICAL STORMS & HURRICANES

HAZARDSHAZARDS ELEMENTS OF WINDSTORM RISK EXPOSUREEXPOSURE VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION RISKRISK

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AND RISK FROM TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES LIKE PATRICIA

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS (AKA HAZARDS) OF A HURRICANE WIND FIELD [CAT 1 (55 mph) TO CAT 5+ (155 mph or greater)] DEBRIS STORM SURGE/FLOODS HEAVY PRECIPITATION/FLOODS LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS) COSTAL EROSION

HIGH POTENTIAL LOSS EXPOSURES IN A HURRICANE Entire communities; People, property, infrastructure, business enterprise, government centers, crops, wildlife, and natural resources.

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS FLOODS HURRICANES EARTHQUAKES/TSUNAMIS VOLCANOES WILDFIRES GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE HIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM BECOMING DISASTER NRESILIENT GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES

A DISASTER CAN HAPPEN WHEN THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A HURRICANE INTERACT WITH A COMMUNITY

WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE TYPHOONS UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS STORM SURGE IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN SITING PROBLEMS FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

A DISASTER is the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., windstorms, floods,…) intersect at a point in space and time.

Disasters are caused by s ingle- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

THE REASONS ARE... When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure can be LOST.

THE REASONS ARE... The community is UN- PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence— high-probability of adverse consequences event.

THE REASONS ARE... The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

THE REASONS ARE... The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

THE REASONS ARE... The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

THE ALTERNATIVE TO A HURRICANE DISASTER IS HURRICANE DISASTER RESILIENCE

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS WINDSTORM HAZARDS PEOPLE & BLDGS. VULNERABILITY LOCATION WINDSTORM RISK RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK GOAL: HURRICANE DISASTER RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EARLY WARNING EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS

TECHNOLOGIES FOR MONITORING, FORECASTING, WARNING, AND DISASTER SCENARIOS ARE VITAL FOR SURVIVAL IN A HURRICANE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WIND- STORMS PREPAREDNES FOR THE EXPECTED AND UNEXPEDTED IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WIND- STORMS PROTECTION OF PEOPLE AND PROPERTY IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL WINDSTORMS THE SAFE ROOM IS ONE WAY TO PROTECT PEOPLE AND PROPERTY

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WIND- STORMS EARLY WARN- ING (THE ISS) AND EVACU- ATION ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WIND- STORMS TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WIND- STORMS RECOVERY AND RECON- STRUCTION USUALLY TAKES LONGER THAN THOUGHT.