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DVC 98 s Telepresence for the Teleworkplace: Living-in versus visiting Cyberspace… Making Telepresence a Reality … or what DV is really all about 30 April.

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Presentation on theme: "DVC 98 s Telepresence for the Teleworkplace: Living-in versus visiting Cyberspace… Making Telepresence a Reality … or what DV is really all about 30 April."— Presentation transcript:

1 DVC 98 s Telepresence for the Teleworkplace: Living-in versus visiting Cyberspace… Making Telepresence a Reality … or what DV is really all about 30 April 1998 Gordon Bell ( Bay Area Research Center Microsoft Research

2 DVC 98 s Outline Nature of the Teleworkplace Platforms and technology push… why now? The teleworking dimensions Telepresentations: a killer app But does anyone want telework? Cyberspace… our quest The end….. The 16 questions posed in the DVC Brochure

3 DVC 98 s Telework = work + telepresence … being there while being here Goal: teleoffice/teleworkplace = workplace office The teleworkplace is ideally just a remote office W/O – Communication, computer, and network support! – Team interactions for work! CSCW is a rat hole! – Interaction at coffee, meeting rooms, … in offices – Administrative support for phones, information (especially paper) management, keeping track of Always on & always connected to intranet/intranet...! Telepresentations & communication -- the killer apps Collaboration is desirable, hard, and may be possible. Needs B/W & low latency. Its on its very slow way. SOHOs & COMOHOs is a high growth market

4 DVC 98 s Telecommuting versus time

5 DVC 98 s Teleworking CW 9/1/97 15% 2 yr increase, 11 Mpeople, avg. 19 Hr/wk 42% of US Cos; 22% have policies (screening, worker expectations, liability, IP protection, etc. Are telecommuters more productive? – 30% yes – 50% same – 4% no – 16% dont know Are telecommuters more accessible? – 13% yes – 40% same – 40% no – 7% dont know

6 DVC 98 s Telepresence for work: requirements Telepresence = space and time shifting Goal: teleoffice/teleworkplace = workplace office Limited space, bandwidth, administrative and computer support infrastructure, AND interaction Need: run all office and professional apps, support computing environment, and be always connected New app opportunities: telepresentations (e.g. NetShow, Powerpoint conferencing); Web is the greatest library ever created Create presence for collaboration by apps sharing (e.g. NetMeeting, Placeware) Administrative support including paper handling! Short term bets: large disks (e.g 20GB), more displays, videophones, cameras, scanners, bandwidth limits

7 DVC 98 s Telework & telepresence: a forcing function into several areas... Home Network Network connection is always on … and at high speed Support (at reasonable cost) for all apps… -- the teleworker = system admin Office work… e.g. paperlessness, message mgmt recording all we read, write, hear, and see -- the teleworker = admin. assistant aka secretary Telepresence… attending meetings and lectures, taking courses, etc. without travel Collaboration on a work project without travel

8 DVC 98 s Why telepresence now?

9 DVC 98 s Its the near-term platforms, stupid! (multimedia is finally happening) Text & 2D graphics >> images, voice, & video The WEB: being anywhere and doing anything Disk sizes and cost c1998 – $50-100 / GB – 4 GB standard; CD-R; and 20-40 GB MO R/W The videophone will emerge for distributed conferences Document, picture, and video capture and compression – 10,000 to 250,000 pages / GB; 10,000 pictures / GB – 40-400 books / GB or $0.25-2.50 / book – Plethora of … CAMERAS EVERYWHERE! – More Screens. We need at least two! Voice and video compression* – 250 hours / GB voice – Stamp size-VHS: 12-50 hours / GB; Audio: Surround sound that is part of V-places

10 DVC 98 s Memex

11 DVC 98 s Storing all weve read, heard, & seen Human data-types /hr/day (/4yr)/lifetime read text, few pictures200 K 2 -10 M/G60-300 G speech text @120wpm 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 G speech @1KBps 3.6 M 40 M/G1.2 T stills w/voice @100KB 200 K2 M/G60 G video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M.25 G/T 25 T video 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M1 G/T100 T video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G20 G/T 1 P

12 DVC 98 s Storage and data-rate requirements for common office data-types Documentsimagecompressed#/GB page or fax100 K4K10K;250K business card5 K500200K;2M snapshot3 M100 K10,000 350 page book25 M1-2 M 40;750 Human data-types /hr/day /lifetime read text, few pictures200 K 2 -10 M60-300 G speech text @120wpm 43 K 0.5 M 15 G speech @1KBps 3.6 M 40 M1.2 T Video comp. 50KbPOTS 22 M.25 G 25 T video comp. 200Kb VHS 90 M1 G100 T video comp. 4.3Mb DVD 1.8 G 20 G 1 P

13 DVC 98 s SOHO AKA COMOHO Teleworking Environment Guardian Angel: intercom, records what we read, see, and hear… protects us from ourselves and others

14 DVC 98 s Libretto,.5mm PCS; Pilot Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife Compass; altimeter Not shown: ECG; GPS;

15 DVC 98 s One of GBs Teleworkplaces

16 DVC 98 s Tecra & Libretto Replacement… at 3#

17 DVC 98 s Conference Rooms with Teleconferencing

18 DVC 98 s

19 SOHO (small office, home office) network computing environment NT Server for: comm/network, POTS/IP gateway, file, print, compute IP Dial tone (Internet, phone, videophone) >1.5 Mbps Phone POTS (legacy services) *NC, NetPC, Xterm, etc.... LAN PC NC*PC... Phone

20 DVC 98 s Telework & communications space

21 DVC 98 s email Formal presentations sans video... Voice & Videomail Video lectures & courses ICQ, Internet phone & phone conf. RealAudio & simple graphics Workspace for remote program control Whiteboard (groups)... Videophone Remote Rover (Robot Videophone) person-computer 1:1 personal communication 2 site-site conferencing; n site conferencing 1:p broadcasts computer management distributed groups with >2, 10, <100, view (troll) hallways with informal interaction 1: 1 videophone calls for (problem solving, authoring) interviews classes formal meetings (lectures, conferences, stockholder meetings, town halls, etc..) Mechanisms (how) Synchronous Asynchronous Group Interaction (Who) Type of Work (What) The Space of Telepresence for work Profession

22 DVC 98 s Telepresence: who and what WHO 1:1 person-person communication n:m 2-site-site video conference 1:n-site broadcasting or Mbone narrowcasting distributed group. >2 - 5 - 10 - 100 ---- person-computer computer management (no persons) What view (troll) hallways, seeking interaction 1:1 interview, status report, etc. 1-6 videophone calls for (design, problem solving, authoring) hold staff meetings with 1 or more members distributed attend classes formal meetings (lectures, conferences, stockholder meetings, town halls, etc..)

23 DVC 98 s Telemeeting clone

24 DVC 98 s Telework clones… being in more than one place at the same time

25 DVC 98 s Animatron...

26 DVC 98 s Synchronous Internet phone & phone conferencing RealAudio & Overhead graphics Shared applications Whiteboards CU SeeMe on POTS… IP Videophone Mbone Video conferencing Room Video conferencing Remote Rover (Robot Videophone) Asynchronous voice mail…STT email... TTS Home pages replace bulletin boards, file transport, and document distribution Schedule & Notes Voice and Video email Telepresentations (meetings, presentations, & courses) Telepresence Mechanisms ( for Work)

27 DVC 98 s Voice and Visual Alternatives (in order of increasing B/W) Voice* TTS (synthetic or speaker driven) 4 Kb-64 Kb codec of real voice Stereo of real voice Stereo with sound source identification Projection into arbitrary virtual world environment *variable speed Visual AKA Video* Text avatar (simple… photo) Avatar with voice sync Avatar of real person Video codec based projection – Postage stamp … POTS – Mailing label … ISDN or 2x POTS – Compressed VHS (200 Kbps) – MPEG 2 (1- 4 Mbps) Speaker tracking, 1-n cameras VR image of a large space 3d images holodeck Animatron e.g. Barney Mobile Animatron *Meeting in real or virtual world

28 DVC 98 s Telepresentations: The next or another killer app?

29 DVC 98 s Tools for telepresentations and telecollaboration Powerpoint: conference & record, Precept: mbone multicasting NetShow: On demand viewing of video 28.8 - 100 Kb CuSeeMe: audio, video, whiteboard NetMeeting: audio, 2 way video, chat, whiteboard, program sharing Placeware for large scale meetings, presentations, and collaborations

30 DVC 98 s Telepresentations Being There (e.g. meeting, lecture, confererene) Without Really Being There (or Then) n Presenter or audience need not be physically present n Reach a wider audience u I have a schedule conflict. u Anybody with a web connection can participate n Reduce costs u No need to travel to attend or participate in a presentation

31 DVC 98 s Telepresentation Features Essential – High quality audio and Graphics aka slides Important – Some essence of the presenter - even a few still images Non-Essential – Video of the presenter – Two-way communication

32 DVC 98 s Telepresentations will be a well-defined app by 2001. ACM97 was the first telepresented conference with Mbone multicast & servers that host the conference cf. Bet: More people will view the conference from Cyberspace than that attended it. Big question: will telepresentation technology AKA tele-learning affect learning and education?

33 DVC 98 s But does anyone want telework?

34 DVC 98 s Problems: socio vs technical Isolation & loneliness – need for communication/stimulation – chance meetings -- serendipity of ideas – loss of group/teamwork skills – danger of becoming terminal interruptions & focus lack of support staff to help, answer ?s supervision and ability to have 1:1 unclear that many people want it… they simply need the contact with people

35 DVC 98 s A People Model: Does anyone want telepresence? Spock formal (in writing) Self-control informal (verbal) Sally Field Souter Evangelism Swaggert Analyticals.. being right, detailed anal retentives Drivers… results oriented megalomaniacs Amiables… consensus builders spineless wimps Expressives... want recognition, need contact psychotics Managing Interpersonal Relationships (MIR) 2D Model --------------chat---------------- email broadcast - push Intensity

36 DVC 98 s Region/Intranet Campus Home… buildings buildings Body World Continent Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace and covered by a hierarchy of computers! Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms Cars… phys. nets

37 DVC 98 s By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs and be in use. Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray 1996 (one paper, loser gets fed)

38 DVC 98 s Two, $1K Bets with Nicholas Negroponte on Internet Growth That by December 31, 2000 there will be 1 billion users on the web. (5:1 odds) That by December 31, 2001, there will be 1 billion users on the web.

39 DVC 98 s Growth in users? World population@1.6% Internet growth extrapolated@98%

40 DVC 98 s Good News Bandwidth will come Audio and video compression is improving to live within POTS limit Videophones will be built-into all PCs within 5 years at 0 cost Telepresentations are here for live and on demand use This will change education! Telecollaboration tools work for simple apps…

41 DVC 98 s Telework: Summary The web is the enabler. We still lack B/W. Technology is coming, research lags in handling – Storage of all text, audio, and useful video – Videophones, cameras, netPCs, WebTV, etc. – More pixels we require to increase presence – Adequate audio… the killer component A big part of telework is just office productivity – Coexistence with computer, paper, telephone, – Data-types require a multimedia database – Computer and network management is a real time killer CSCW is a rathole. We dont understand CW – The killer apps are simple: telepresentations and shared apps Being connected all the time is essential

42 DVC 98 s Therapy from long distance debated - SJ Mercury 5 April 1998

43 DVC 98 s The End

44 DVC 98 s Bonus slides: Gordons very own answers to the 16 questions posed in the DVC Brochure

45 DVC 98 s Will streaming video bring the Internet to its knees? Depends on the data-rate. Is it 28.8 Kbps? Or > 4500 Kbps for DVD and HDTV-quality? By definition, it wont or cant because It wont be deployed if the network cant support it Better question: What forms will streaming video take over the next five years for the corporate user? What forms will streaming video take as a function of time for the home internet user?

46 DVC 98 s What are the essential ingredients for success in remote collaboration? The type of work… it has to be coarse grain I.e. little interaction among the collaborators per unit of collaboration and work output Telepresentation-type collaboration does work The application supporting it Great audio Were you able to collaborate in a single site?

47 DVC 98 s How much interoperability is really out there? Not much…among vendors. Microsoft has a solution to this problem and we comply with the various ITU standards

48 DVC 98 s Which technology will win the broadband access battle -- cable modems or DSL products? I.e. the dumb or the blind? Cable will lead in the short term because of the inherent ease of doing it, its low cost, and the possibility that users could simply buy their cable modems and attach them. Not a given because the transition to digital channels will confuse things But in the long term, service most likely has to be Central Office based for reliability and scalability and for symmetry.

49 DVC 98 s Why are desktop video conferencing sales growing faster in the consumer market than in business market? It would be surprising if videoconferencing sales are growing faster. Surely 2 way videophone is growing Clearer need: the videophone It is easy to do for videophone use Lack of a great product that works Lace of infrastructure on the net, including firewalls Audio isnt good enough… I.e. acceptable

50 DVC 98 s How will Disney use the Internet to distribute multimedia content? Slowly… look at their site with a young child Games, cartoons, and stories To engage the users into stories like DisneyLand or DisneyWorld

51 DVC 98 s What does it cost to multicast video to thousands of users from a single stream? Do you have the bandwidth for one or more channels? If so, the cost is nil. Is it just for internal multicasting? Do you want to send to the internet or just receive? All these require just doing it… FYI: Multicasting using NetShow is built in to NT

52 DVC 98 s Which streaming media technology places the least demand on your network server? The Mbone standards… are just fine Not using on demand However, on demand is the most useful and flexible, by far

53 DVC 98 s Can videoconferences be made secure? Is this really a problem?

54 DVC 98 s How can the enterprise network be used to transmit voice? Wait Adequate and reliable LANs Platforms that support voice are available It really happens when you incorporate desktop IP telephony

55 DVC 98 s What are the costs and logistics of broadcasting live over the internet? Why would you want to? You have to use the Mbone channels today or the equivalent of extra-nets? A more realistic scenario would be on demand from your site. Anyone can do this!

56 DVC 98 s What is being done to simplify life for multipoint users? Who he/she?

57 DVC 98 s How do you integrate audio and video into your web pages? Just do it!

58 DVC 98 s With the emergence of IP telephony, is regular POTS conferencing dead? Yes, but It is going to take 3-5 years before IP telephony becomes ubiquitous enough It will probably build from a product/technology like NetMeeting Should ask:t what kind of environment or use?

59 DVC 98 s What are the best measures of videoconferencing quality? The existing systems using dedicated links Whether users can get work done

60 DVC 98 s Will video chat develop like keyboard chat and generate millions of minutes of usage for on line services? It already is. Go visit a Porno studio, however this is really one way chat Unclear how much n-way video chat will be used Expect NetMeeting et al will be the enablers and meetings could be the killer app Dont count out shared games as the enabler and avenue for chat & collaboration Some consumer research questions: Do you want voice at all or text with avatars and comic chat? Or would you rather chat using just voice, voice and avatars, lip-synced images of yourself, 10-30 fps talking images?

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