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Copyright Gordon Bell Beyond Moores Law (and the web): Whats next? Nets Everywhere

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1 Copyright Gordon Bell Beyond Moores Law (and the web): Whats next? Nets Everywhere Gordon Bell Bay Area Research Center Microsoft Corporation

2 Copyright Gordon Bell Outline… pervasive computing from in body to world scale Technology basis On, in, and around body… Mobility: essential for people, phone build out Storing everything youve ever… Home, personal, and media stores Scalable systems: what is central vs personal?.net: what does it mean? – Ease of building reliable, scalable, secure, transaction & streaming apps –.bCentral… creating on-line presence

3 Copyright Gordon Bell Some ranked, important technology Fortune Bluetooth Voice control of xx XML Peer-to-peer as in Napster or Gnutella Network Computing 802.11b Bluetooth Broadband Directory Services Voice over IP IPv6 Wave Div. Multiplex SAN & Fiber Chan. ASP QOS

4 Copyright Gordon Bell My betting record: No losses … so far No massively parallel domination by 1995 … Video On Demand will not exist by 1995 AT&T acquisition of NCR will not be successful Not 10K desktop-desktop @1Gbps by 1/2001 Not 1 B internet users by 1/2001 or 1/2002 Cars wont drive themselves by 2005 PCs continue with 2 digit growth through 2002 2004(5): E-ink or polymer display << LCD 2001(5): Nil info appliances vs. PCs Cameras on computers will be pervasive!

5 Copyright Gordon Bell Technologies

6 Copyright Gordon Bell Moores Law Performance/Price doubles every 18 months 100x per decade Progress in next 18 months = ALL previous progress – New storage = sum of all past storage – New processing = sum of past processing. E. coli double ever 20 minutes! 15 years ago

7 Copyright Gordon Bell Desktop-desktop @ 1 gbps http://research. ~gray/papers/ Win2K_1Gbps.doc

8 Copyright Gordon Bell 500 mips System On A Chip for 10$ 486 now 7$ 233 MHz ARM for 10$ system on a chip AMD/Celeron 266 ~ 30$ In 5 years, todays leading edge will be – System on chip (cpu, cache, mem ctlr, multiple IO) – Low cost – Low-power – Have integrated IO High end is 5 BIPS cpus

9 Copyright Gordon Bell 1 GBps Ubiquitous 10 GBps SANs in 5 years 1Gbps Ethernet are reality now. – Also FiberChannel,MyriNet, GigaNet, ServerNet,, ATM,… 10 Gbps x4 WDM deployed now (OC192) – 3 Tbps WDM working in lab In 5 years, expect 10x, progress is astonishing Gilders law: Bandwidth grows 3x/year 5 MBps 20 Mbsp 40 MBps 80 MBps 120 MBps (1Gbps)

10 Bells Evolution Of Computer Classes Technology enables two evolutionary paths: 1. constant performance, decreasing cost 2. constant price, increasing performance 1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 =.8 1.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 =.62 Mini Time Mainframes (central) PCs (personals) Log price WSs Handheld…Appliances

11 Copyright Gordon Bell Platform evolution: What do they do thats useful? How do they communicate?

12 Region/Intranet Campus Home… buildings buildings Body World Continent Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace and covered by a hierarchy of computers! Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms Cars… phys. nets

13 Copyright Gordon Bell Data Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020 Telephony Television Or will we just have gateways?

14 Copyright Gordon Bell Beyond Moores Law Results Is the Internet aka www.everything?www.everything.Net --the next big thing. Computers use the net Moores Law to get cheaper, one chip systems that increase portability, ubiquity, etc. Paper-competitive Screens Disks of 1 TB Wireless for ubiquity; including GPS Bridges to television Bridges to PSTN for phones, PDAs, etc.

15 In a decade we can/will have: more powerful personal computers – processing 10-100x – 4x resolution (2K x 2K) displays to impact paper – Large, wall-sized and watch-sized displays – low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use adequate networking???? – ubiquitous access = todays fast LANs – Competitive wireless networking One chip, networked platforms including light bulbs, cameras everywhere, etc. Several well-defined platforms that compete with the PC for mind (time) and market share watch, pocket, body implant, home Inevitable, continued cyberization… the challenge… interfacing platforms and people.

16 Copyright Gordon Bell IP On Everything

17 Copyright Gordon Bell In body, on body, and around body… how do they evolve?

18 Copyright Gordon Bell Your husband just died, … heres his black box

19 Copyright Gordon Bell MedronIcMedronIc

20 Audio, pix, T, P, ECG, location, physiological parameters… 1 GB

21 Copyright Gordon Bell 1976: 6 oz. Watch, manual size > watch size

22 Copyright Gordon Bell Storing everything! Libretto,.5mm PCS; Pilot Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife Compass; altimeter Not shown: ECG; GPS;

23 Copyright Gordon Bell Casio GPS Watch

24 Copyright Gordon Bell Steve Mann in Cyberspace MIT c1995

25 Copyright Gordon Bell Wearable PC c2000

26 Copyright Gordon Bell

27 The mobile network: key to personal use

28 Copyright Gordon Bell Wirelessness and mobility… MMDS & LMDS… very likely non-starters (bits will come via our installed Cu & new fiber) The crowded 2.4 GHz band – Portable phones: the first, noisy settlers – 802.11b (11 Mbit Ethernet LAN) homesteading – HomeRF (Intels misguided effort at a home LAN) – Bluetooth… see the new world. How can 2,000 companies be wrong? – 802.11a 50 Mbps LAN (TBD) GSM & CDMA 2&3 G services… – Bets as the next Internet wave

29 Copyright Gordon Bell Sony Personal IT Television 10 Touch screen 802.11b connect TV Internet connect Picture frame 32cm x 20cm 1.5 Kg

30 Copyright Gordon Bell 0 0.2 0.4 0.8 2.0 199719981999200020012002 Circuit data <9.6kbps HSCSD 57.6kbps GPRS 115kbps EDGE 384kbps UMTS 2Mbps 0.1 The evolution of wireless data standards… good news. Bad news… too many, they lie!

31 Copyright Gordon Bell GPRS Evolution

32 Copyright Gordon Bell Internet Industry (circa 1999) Courtesy of Sheridan Forbes Transport Network Hardware/Protocols Computers & Operating Layer Software Applications & Middleware Infobases/PortalsProcurementCommunication Supply Chain ERPProfessionalFinancial Operations Marketing Internet Services $170B* Infrastructure $171B* * University of Texas Center for Research in Electronic Commerce ** This market is not yest sized, estimated at $2B+,growing to $100B in 2002 Access Personal/Employee Data Government Content Syndicators Content Syndication $2B+ ** Web Hosting

33 Copyright Gordon Bell Voice to WEB Bridge Web Server Web Server TheWeb DataBase PSTN The Next Convergence POTS connects to the Web a.k.a. Phone-Web Gateways

34 Copyright Gordon Bell Enable voice and text access on phones, screen phones, PDAs and other devices to existing Internet infrastructure in an intelligent, customizable way. Mission: Everypath*: an example of mobile web gateway *An example, included, etc.

35 Copyright Gordon Bell Cyber All: using on body computers to record and recall it all

36 Copyright Gordon Bell Cyber All Project: Recording and being able to retrieve and use everything Ive ever read (written), and also heard (said), and seen (participated in or presented)

37 Copyright Gordon Bell Storing all weve read, heard, & seen Human data-types /hr/day (/4yr)/lifetime read text, few pictures200 K 2 -10 M/G60-300 G speech text @120wpm 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 G speech @1KBps 3.6 M 40 M/G1.2 T stills w/voice @100KB 200 K2 M/G60 G video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M.25 G/T 25 T video 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M1 G/T100 T video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G20 G/T 1 P

38 Copyright Gordon Bell Technology: getting, storing, and finding those bits The Source: bits on paper, computers, CDs, video/audiotape, cameras, telephones, etc. Capturing & encoding – 1D (Word) & 2 D documents, photos, etc. – voice – video Recognizing when necessary… MIPS help. OCR needs to be as fast as reading the file Storing … 1 terabyte personal disk by 2010 Organizing… databases are many and fragmented Retrieving however possible

39 Copyright Gordon Bell Character of Cyber All Use User Context / Use(t) Personal (ambiance, entertainment, finance, etc.) Professional (work related) Archival (historical reference) Documents, photos and photo albums, music, video memory-aid, entertainment, medical history, progeny Books, papers, reference documents memory-aid and reference Working (daily use) Documents, email, photos, CDs, video communication, ambiance, entertainment, financial records Documents, email content for profession use to communication

40 Copyright Gordon Bell My Mbytes

41 Copyright Gordon Bell Digital all the way, abandon legacy TV sets CATV Dist. Set top Computer Hi Res. Computer Or HDTV Monitor SVGA… etc. 5-10 Cable

42 Copyright Gordon Bell Home Networks Home IP network CATV Dist Rec/ AMP CCCC.srv Monitor TVset HDTV Tuner CATV Network Servers: Hold & deliver audio, photos, video Encode TV content Computers: Control, get content from web, servers Monitors: HDTV TV-sets: receive encoded & CATV content DSL, etc. input broadcast

43 Copyright Gordon Bell PCTV a.k.a. MilliBillg Using PCs to drive large screens e.g. tv sets, Plasma Panels Gordon Bell Jim Gemmell Bay Area Research Center Microsoft Research Copyright 1999 Microsoft Corporation

44 Copyright Gordon Bell


46 When will we have smart rooms? Life-sized displays for interaction - and for being anywhere! Cameras that recognize people Mics and Speech based interface Total surround sound One IP net vs. four (data/a/v/phone) Coupled to all power, data, audio, and video/television networks Interval Research developed a technology to track individuals in stores!

47 Copyright Gordon Bell Scalable Systems: What is central, distributed (scaled) at a central site, or personal? Scalaing beyond a single facility?

48 Copyright Gordon Bell High Performance Computing

49 Copyright Gordon Bell Bell Prize and Future Peak Tflops (t) Petaflops study target NEC XMP NCube CM2 *IBM

50 Copyright Gordon Bell Computer types (scientific) Netwrked Supers… Legion Condor Beowulf NT clusters VPPuni T3E SP2 (mP) NOW NEC mP SGI DSM clusters & SGI DSM NEC super Cray X…T (all mPv) Mainframes Multis WSs PCs -------- Connectivity-------- WAN/LAN SAN DSM SM micros vector Clusters GRID Old World

51 Copyright Gordon Bell Modern scalable switches … also hide a supercomputer (converging switching, computing, and storing?) Scale from <1 to 120 Tbps 1 Gbps ethernet switches scale to 10s of Gbps, scaling upward SP2 scales from 1.2 - 40 tera-ops

52 Copyright Gordon Bell Interesting cluster in a cabinet 366 servers per 44U cabinet – Single processor – 2 - 30 GB/computer (24 TBytes) – 2 - 100 Mbps Ethernets ~10x perf*, power, disk, I/O per cabinet ~3x price/perf Network services… Linux based *42, 2 processors, 84 Ethernet, 3 TBytes

53 Copyright Gordon Bell GB with NT, Compaq, & HP cluster

54 Copyright Gordon Bell Top 10 tpc-c

55 Copyright Gordon Bell Clusters, the Grid, Napster, and Gnutela: going beyond Clusters allow build your own system of any size The Grid has provided facilities, like.NET for computers to communicate, and share resources (programs & data). Seti@home: Seti@home – Scan 30% of the Northern sky every 6 mos. – Get 50 GB/day – 2 million computers – 15 tera-flops – 417 exa-flops delivered over

56 Copyright Gordon Bell The Grid GRID was/is an exciting concept … – They can/must work within a community, organization, or project. What binds it? – Necessity is the mother of invention. Taxonomy… interesting vs necessity – Cycle scavenging and object evaluation (e.g. seti@home, QCD, factoring)seti@home – File distribution/sharing aka IP theft (e.g. Napster, Gnutella) – Databases &/or programs and experiments (astronomy, genome, NCAR, CERN) – Workbenches: web workflow chem, bio… – Single, large problem pipeline… e.g. NASA. – Exchanges… many sites operating together – Transparent web access aka load balancing – Facilities managed PCs operating as cluster!

57 Copyright Gordon Bell.Net… shifting from client to server Beyond Browsing: Computer can use the web. Human accessible services can be accessed by other computers on the web. Directory services: e.g. UDDI, Terraserver XML is the core – Widely accepted open, naming standard – Universal data exchange enable distributed apps – Enables agents Supports all types of devices

58 Copyright Gordon Bell A natural evolution

59 Copyright Gordon Bell

60 The End

61 Copyright Gordon Bell Things get cheaper: ala Christiansen & Microprocessors

62 Copyright Gordon Bell Was Digital a Victim of Innovators Dilemma?

63 Copyright Gordon Bell Exponential change of 10X per decade causes real turmoil! 100000 10000 1000 100 $K 10 1 0.1 0.01 19601970198019902000 8 MB 1 MB 256 KB 64 KB 16 KB Timeshared systems Single-user systems

64 Copyright Gordon Bell VAX Planning Model 1975: It was very hard to believe it The model was very good – 1978 timeshared $250K VAXen cost about $8K in 1997! – Minicomputers stayed at the 100K-1M price SUN Microsystems exploited this. Costs declined > 20% – users get more memory than predicted Single user systems didnt come down as fast, unless you consider PDAs VAX ran out of address bits!

65 Copyright Gordon Bell Was Digital a Victim of Innovators Dilemma? Absolutely NOT! Otherwise HP, IBM would have failed and SUN wouldnt have replaced DEC as the minicomputer supplier. IBM AS400 (mini), the most profitable computer every built Miss- understanding the industry Destroying its channels Out of control… billion buck boners

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