2. Different Types of Military Capability ConventionalForces ArmiesNaviesAirforces Weapons Of Mass Destruction (WMD) NuclearChemicalBiological

3. Conventional Forces Something conventional is something normal, commonplace or traditional. So conventional military forces are commonplace & we have become accustomed to designating in 3 main categories of: Something conventional is something normal, commonplace or traditional. So conventional military forces are commonplace & we have become accustomed to designating in 3 main categories of: a) Armies (for protecting or taking territory); b) Navies (for activities at sea & near coastlines); c) Air Forces (bombing of strategic land & sea targets+battlefield bombing; intercepting other aircraft; reconnaissance, airlifts).

5. Weapons of Mass Destruction (1) While so far there has been almost no use of WMD in war, they are still an impt. element of international bargaining because, “even the implicit threat of their use is leverage.” While so far there has been almost no use of WMD in war, they are still an impt. element of international bargaining because, “even the implicit threat of their use is leverage.” WMD differ from conventional weapons in that they are generally: WMD differ from conventional weapons in that they are generally: a) more deadly for more people b) have a smaller size to impact ratio c) tend to lack discrimination to who they kill d) have relatively small cost to impact ratio e) are used more typically as a deterrent

6. Weapons of Mass Destruction (2) There are 3 main types of WMD: There are 3 main types of WMD: 1) Nuclear Weapons 2) Chemical Weapons 3) Biological Weapons

7. Nuclear Weapons (1) Nuclear weapons are the most powerful / destructive weapons yet created with a single bomb having capability of destroying a whole city. The impact of heat & radiation they generate upon explosion can have deadly effects for days, weeks & even years. Nuclear weapons are the most powerful / destructive weapons yet created with a single bomb having capability of destroying a whole city. The impact of heat & radiation they generate upon explosion can have deadly effects for days, weeks & even years. Believed that use of several nuclear weapons at same time, (perhaps a higher risk during Cold War), could affect the global climate so badly that world experiences a “nuclear winter” of extremely cold & dark conditions that wipe-out (most, if not all) life on the planet. Believed that use of several nuclear weapons at same time, (perhaps a higher risk during Cold War), could affect the global climate so badly that world experiences a “nuclear winter” of extremely cold & dark conditions that wipe-out (most, if not all) life on the planet.

8. Nuclear Weapons (2) Production of nuclear weapons requires relatively high levels of technical advance & sophisticated engineering, but also the possession of special materials (e.g. Uranium-235) that are not easy to access. Nevertheless, an incr. no. of states (& possibly non-state actors) now either possess nuclear weapons or have the technological capability to produce them if they so choose. Production of nuclear weapons requires relatively high levels of technical advance & sophisticated engineering, but also the possession of special materials (e.g. Uranium-235) that are not easy to access. Nevertheless, an incr. no. of states (& possibly non-state actors) now either possess nuclear weapons or have the technological capability to produce them if they so choose.

9. Nuclear Weapons (3) Tactical Nuclear Weapons are those designed for use on battlefield where armies are fighting & require less sophisticated means of delivery. Tactical Nuclear Weapons are those designed for use on battlefield where armies are fighting & require less sophisticated means of delivery. To be able to attack another state from your own territory you also need to possess an effective delivery system, those with the greatest strategic value being ballistic missiles, (which, unlike planes, are v. difficult to defend against). To be able to attack another state from your own territory you also need to possess an effective delivery system, those with the greatest strategic value being ballistic missiles, (which, unlike planes, are v. difficult to defend against). Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM’s) are those with greatest range (over 5,000 miles) currently possessed by only USA, Russia & China.* Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM’s) are those with greatest range (over 5,000 miles) currently possessed by only USA, Russia & China.* * Some sources include missiles ranges over 3,500 miles in the category of ICBM’s, in which case Britain & France are the 2 additional states that possess ICBM’s. ICBMICBM

11. Chemical Weapons (1) Chemical weapons are simply those weapons releasing chemicals (of different types, effect & deadliness). Some such weapons (e.g. tear gas) are just irritating, others kill. Chemical weapons are simply those weapons releasing chemicals (of different types, effect & deadliness). Some such weapons (e.g. tear gas) are just irritating, others kill. Chemical weapons infrequently used in wars, though Mustard Gas (affecting lungs & skin) was used quite a lot in WWI. Chemical weapons infrequently used in wars, though Mustard Gas (affecting lungs & skin) was used quite a lot in WWI. The use of Chemical Weapons was banned by Geneva Protocol of 1925, though many states still developed & stockpiled chemical weapons, (& Iraq broke the treaty during its war against Iran in the 1980’s). The use of Chemical Weapons was banned by Geneva Protocol of 1925, though many states still developed & stockpiled chemical weapons, (& Iraq broke the treaty during its war against Iran in the 1980’s).

12. Chemical Weapons (2) Chemical weapons are relatively easy to produce, cheap & effective against large no.s of advancing soldiers. Chemical weapons are relatively easy to produce, cheap & effective against large no.s of advancing soldiers. Though protective clothing & gas masks can protect from damaging effects of chemical weapons, it’s more difficult for soldiers to fight if burdened by such clothing/equipment. Though protective clothing & gas masks can protect from damaging effects of chemical weapons, it’s more difficult for soldiers to fight if burdened by such clothing/equipment. Since 1992 Chemical Weapons Convention nearly all states (incl. all the Great Powers) committed to making the possession & production of chemical weapons illegal. Since 1992 Chemical Weapons Convention nearly all states (incl. all the Great Powers) committed to making the possession & production of chemical weapons illegal.

14. Biological Weapons (1) Biological Weapons in some ways similar to chemical ones. They use microorganisms or toxins, & some are used to spread viruses or bacteria. Like chemical weapons they have a range of deadliness, with some that can kill, others which are not deadly. Biological Weapons in some ways similar to chemical ones. They use microorganisms or toxins, & some are used to spread viruses or bacteria. Like chemical weapons they have a range of deadliness, with some that can kill, others which are not deadly. Great danger of certain biological weapons is they could create uncontrollable contagious epidemic that could wipe out whole populations (or large parts). This is why states have been reluctant to use such weapons whose ultimate consequences are unknown. Great danger of certain biological weapons is they could create uncontrollable contagious epidemic that could wipe out whole populations (or large parts). This is why states have been reluctant to use such weapons whose ultimate consequences are unknown.

15. Biological Weapons (2) Under the Biological Weapons Convention of 1972 all the Great Powers & most other states agreed to the banning of not only the use of such weapons, but also of their development, production & possession. Nevertheless, it is very hard to detect secret biological (& chemical) programs & there is some evidence that some states broke the convention. Under the Biological Weapons Convention of 1972 all the Great Powers & most other states agreed to the banning of not only the use of such weapons, but also of their development, production & possession. Nevertheless, it is very hard to detect secret biological (& chemical) programs & there is some evidence that some states broke the convention.

17. WMD PROLIFERATION (1) “Proliferation” means something spreading / multiplying. In terms of WMD, proliferation refers to spread of such weapons from a limited no. of states to an ever-increasing no. of states & other actors* (+ the technology & materials upon which they are based). “Proliferation” means something spreading / multiplying. In terms of WMD, proliferation refers to spread of such weapons from a limited no. of states to an ever-increasing no. of states & other actors* (+ the technology & materials upon which they are based). * e.g.Sarin subway attack 1995, domestic terrorism by Aum Shinrikyo religious cult in Japan, thought to have been trying to acquire nuclear materials from Russia & known to have had biological agents & stockpiles of chemical Sarin sufficient to kill 4 million people!

18. WMD PROLIFERATION (2) Great Powers are opposed to proliferation & it could be argued this is partly because they have an interest in maintaining their leverage / power/ advantages which would be diminished esp. if middle powers also acquired WMD. Great Powers are opposed to proliferation & it could be argued this is partly because they have an interest in maintaining their leverage / power/ advantages which would be diminished esp. if middle powers also acquired WMD. Some Middle Powers have, however, unilaterally abandoned their WMD programs, incl. nuclear programs (e.g. South Africa, Brazil). Some Middle Powers have, however, unilaterally abandoned their WMD programs, incl. nuclear programs (e.g. South Africa, Brazil).

19. WMD PROLIFERATION (3) On the other hand, some realists who believe that states act rationally suggest that the probability of war in the world would decreases with proliferation as rational decision makers would not use military force that could mutually annihalate. On the other hand, some realists who believe that states act rationally suggest that the probability of war in the world would decreases with proliferation as rational decision makers would not use military force that could mutually annihalate. Most, however, disagree & are alarmed by proliferation of WMD because they believe it increases chances of accidents, miscalculation & fanatical terrorism. Most, however, disagree & are alarmed by proliferation of WMD because they believe it increases chances of accidents, miscalculation & fanatical terrorism.

20. WMD PROLIFERATION (4) With states there may be a clear territory/state against whom you can threaten to retaliate & thereby deter attack from taking place. Particular problem with possession by non- state actors of WMD is, however, that non-state actors such as terrorist groups are generally “immune from threats of retaliation”, i.e. they don’t have a specific, identifiable territory to defend. With states there may be a clear territory/state against whom you can threaten to retaliate & thereby deter attack from taking place. Particular problem with possession by non- state actors of WMD is, however, that non-state actors such as terrorist groups are generally “immune from threats of retaliation”, i.e. they don’t have a specific, identifiable territory to defend.

21. WMD PROLIFERATION (5) E.g. If USSR threatened to use WMD against American capital Washington D.C., U.S. could deter such an attack by its threat of an equivalent strike against Moscow, but if Al-Qaeda threatens to use WMD against a state or city who / where do you retaliate against? What territory does Al-Qaeda possess? Where are Al-Qaeda sympathizers & operatives?... Some of them may well be in the state that is being threatened by terrorist organization! E.g. If USSR threatened to use WMD against American capital Washington D.C., U.S. could deter such an attack by its threat of an equivalent strike against Moscow, but if Al-Qaeda threatens to use WMD against a state or city who / where do you retaliate against? What territory does Al-Qaeda possess? Where are Al-Qaeda sympathizers & operatives?... Some of them may well be in the state that is being threatened by terrorist organization!

22. WMD PROLIFERATION (6) In late 1960’s first serious international efforts to stop nuclear proliferation with establishment of Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) by which time 5 states (USA, USSR, UK, France & China) were already nuclear powers. Nearly all sovereign states eventually signed the treaty, (impt. exceptions being Israel, Pakistan & India). In late 1960’s first serious international efforts to stop nuclear proliferation with establishment of Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) by which time 5 states (USA, USSR, UK, France & China) were already nuclear powers. Nearly all sovereign states eventually signed the treaty, (impt. exceptions being Israel, Pakistan & India). The NPT had 2 important dimensions: 1) Signatories that did not possess nuclear weapons agreed not to try to do so; 2) Signatories that did possess nuclear weapons undertook to substantially disarm. The NPT had 2 important dimensions: 1) Signatories that did not possess nuclear weapons agreed not to try to do so; 2) Signatories that did possess nuclear weapons undertook to substantially disarm. Today there are commonly believed to be 9 nuclear powers; the 5 that existed in 1968 + India, Pakistan, North Korea & Israel. Today there are commonly believed to be 9 nuclear powers; the 5 that existed in 1968 + India, Pakistan, North Korea & Israel.

23. WMD PROLIFERATION (7) IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) is UN agency originally set-up in 1957 to help states developing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. It is authorized to inspect nuclear facilities in NPT member- states to check programs are only for civilian energy purposes & make sure nuclear material is kept in “safe” hands. Mohamed El Baradei Director General of the IAEA till November 2009

24. WMD PROLIFERATION (8) Other Key Issues Does Israel Possess “the bomb”? (Israel: “We neither confirm, nor deny...”) Does Israel Possess “the bomb”? (Israel: “We neither confirm, nor deny...”) Nuclear Proliferation & Collapse of USSR (Chaos & economic collapse meant threat of WMD materials & knowledge / expertise getting into “wrong hands”). Same concern more recently in Pakistan. (see e.g. http://in.reuters.com/article/southAsiaNews/idINIndia-39789020090521) Nuclear Proliferation & Collapse of USSR (Chaos & economic collapse meant threat of WMD materials & knowledge / expertise getting into “wrong hands”). Same concern more recently in Pakistan. (see e.g. http://in.reuters.com/article/southAsiaNews/idINIndia-39789020090521) Iraq & WMD (Believed to be trying to develop nuclear weapons – in 1981 main nuclear facility bombed by Israelis – Agrees to dismantling of secret nuclear development program & inspection as part of 1991 Gulf war ceasefire – 2003 US (& UK) declares war on premise that Iraq possess stockpiles of WMD... But none found). Iraq & WMD (Believed to be trying to develop nuclear weapons – in 1981 main nuclear facility bombed by Israelis – Agrees to dismantling of secret nuclear development program & inspection as part of 1991 Gulf war ceasefire – 2003 US (& UK) declares war on premise that Iraq possess stockpiles of WMD... But none found). Iran & WMD (Iran’s nuclear program began in 1950’s with US help. After revolution in 1979 temporarily stopped & then restarted. Iranian govt claims its for purely peaceful purposes, but Iran appears to have hidden some parts of its program from IAEA & US (& others) have fears that Iran wants to develop nuclear weapons despite being a signatory of the NPT. 23 Dec 2006 UN Sec Council imposed limited sanctions (freezing some Iranian assets & banning supply of some materials) & threatened more if Iran continued to work on uranium enrichment). Iran & WMD (Iran’s nuclear program began in 1950’s with US help. After revolution in 1979 temporarily stopped & then restarted. Iranian govt claims its for purely peaceful purposes, but Iran appears to have hidden some parts of its program from IAEA & US (& others) have fears that Iran wants to develop nuclear weapons despite being a signatory of the NPT. 23 Dec 2006 UN Sec Council imposed limited sanctions (freezing some Iranian assets & banning supply of some materials) & threatened more if Iran continued to work on uranium enrichment). North Korea (1st state to officially withdraw from NPT in April 2003, successfully tested nuclear weapon on 9th Oct 2003). North Korea (1st state to officially withdraw from NPT in April 2003, successfully tested nuclear weapon on 9th Oct 2003).