1. Harlan Shannon and Raymond Motha U.S. Department of Agriculture Office of the Chief Economist World Agricultural Outlook Board Washington D.C., U.S.A. An Overview of Current Threats to Agriculture and Management Strategies Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

2. Weather & Climate in RA-IV Weather & climate varies significantly –north: mid-latitude cyclones, MCS’s, seasonal incursions of hot/cold air –south: mid-latitude cyclones, tropical disturbances, generally mild/hot air Local variables also influential –latitude, elevation, proximity to water Given broad spatial extent & widely varying terrain, farmers exposed to range of weather & climate phenomena Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board cold mild hot

3. Droughts Drought is a regular occurrence, and is often severe, having significant social and economic impacts on local, regional, and sometimes national scales Drought is a creeping disaster that has devastating, long-lasting impacts on agriculture and other sectors of society In 1988, a severe drought in the United States caused over $70 billion in damage to the economy Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

4. Droughts Central America (summer 2001) –drought significantly reduced cereal & vegetable production Caribbean (late 2009/early 2010 ) –drought impacted agriculture in several nations In 7 of last 10 years, drought caused on average $4.7 billion in agricultural losses annually in the United States –consecutive years of severe drought rare –most crop areas impacted during period Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Estimated 1.6 million people required emergency food aid summer 2001 Oct 2009 - Mar 2010 Eastern Caribbean SPI

5. Floods United States (spring/summer 1993) –record flooding caused $21 billion in damage ($5 billion in crop losses) –48 fatalities, 77 towns inundated, damage to infrastructure, barge traffic disrupted Mexico & Central America (Oct 2007) –80% of Tabasco flooded, half million people displaced, $462 million ag losses Haiti & Dominican Republic (May 2004) –1400+ deaths, food aid for 6000+ families –in some Haitian villages 70% crops lost Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board 1993 2002

6. Hurricanes Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

7. Hurricanes Mitch (Oct 1998) – Central America –tremendous flooding, many mudslides –11,000+ deaths, $5 billion in damage –local agriculture severely damaged –80% of El Salvador corn and Honduras banana crops lost, 30% Nicaragua coffee Katrina (Aug 2005) – United States –high winds, massive storm surge –1800+ fatalities, $125 billion in damage –many crops harvested prior to landfall –millions of chickens killed, $3 million in milk lost, rivers blocked, ports damaged Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Mitch Katrina

8. Hurricanes Dean (Aug 2007) – Caribbean/Mexico –considerable damage to islands, Yucatan –Dominica: 90% banana crop lost –Belize: 95% papaya crop destroyed –Jamaica: 75% vegetable production lost, $3.7 billion in damage to agriculture Fay, Gustav, Ike (Aug/Sep 2008) – Cuba –caused considerable damage to agriculture & infrastructure throughout –high winds lodged sugarcane, uprooted fruit trees, damaged farm buildings –floods damaged immature/mature crops, processing/storage facilities, rail network Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Dean Ike

9. Extreme Heat Hot weather regular occurrence in Central America/Caribbean –crops & livestock heat tolerant Central & Eastern Cuba (2003/2004) –near-record heat accompanied drought –reduced forage, water, sugarcane production; 36,000 head of cattle lost Mexico, U.S., Canada (summer 2007) –Canada: heat reduced pea/canola yields –U.S.: hot weather reduced pasture & range conditions, stressed livestock Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

10. Freezes Eastern Prairies & Ontario (Jun 1998) – frost forced farmers to replant Saskatchewan & Manitoba (Aug 2004) –killing freeze cut spring grain yields United States –California (Jan 2007): 20% oranges lost –Florida (1980s): reshaped citrus areas –Eastern U.S. (Apr 2007): wheat, corn, peaches, apples, pecans - $2 billion lost Sinaloa, Mexico (winter 1996/1997) – vegetable plants drop blooms Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

11. Other Extreme Episodic Events Severe local storms –high winds, large hail, tornadoes –damage highly localized Blizzards –potential widespread impacts in north –bitter cold, strong winds, blowing & drifting snow can stress & kill livestock –protect dormant crops from winterkill Wildfires –greatest threat: areas in drought, have distinct wet/dry seasons, dry t-storms Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

12. Climate Change & Variability Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Dominant contributors in RA-IV –El Nino Southern Oscillation –Arctic Oscillation –Tropical Multi-decadal Signal Many extreme episodic events linked to different modes of climate variability Climate change/variability duel risk –govern how favorable weather is for agriculture over long periods of time –increase/decrease likelihood of extreme episodic events during these intervals …climate variability refers to variations in the mean state of the climate on all spatial and temporal scales beyond that of individual weather events… …climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer.…

13. Management & Coping Strategies Farmer-managed strategies –vary planting dates –diversify crops & varieties –seek alternative sources of income –maintain emergency fund –store harvested crops on site Most effective when farmers are well educated in risk management concepts, have access to applicable data & tools –empowers farmers to make sound risk management decisions –retain management control of farm Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board corn soybeans

14. Management & Coping Strategies Transfer risk to outside organizations –contracting: give up some farm control –insurance: premiums reduce profits Production contracts – guarantee prices & markets, dictate production process Crop yield insurance – offset financial losses when yields below insured levels Crop production insurance – offset losses when gross farm revenue less than minimally acceptable Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

15. Management & Coping Strategies Contracting & insurance most prevalent in more developed nations In the developing nations, limited opportunities to transfer risk –Disaster assistance remains primary mechanism to help farmers cope Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

16. Educating the Farming Community Few farmers fully understand all links among weather, climate, & agriculture Recent disasters and climate forecasts underscore need for more education –annual crop production more variable –most impacted areas: developing nations, marginally productive lands Demonstrate how to translate weather & climate information into relevant farming decisions –improve daily decision-making process –ensure long-term sustainability Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Agriculture Weather Climate

17. Educating the Farming Community Conveying risk management concepts –who: colleges, agricultural extension services, companies, government agencies –how: courses, guides, tutorials, brochures –why: weather & climate risks need to be better defined in an agricultural risk management framework New & improved educational materials needed to help farmers understand risk –cater to farmers: omit unnecessary jargon, use real world examples –will improve farmer comprehension & increase likelihood risk strategies adopted Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

18. Equipping the Farming Community WAMIS helps users locate & identify valuable weather & climate resources Groups should better advertise products & services and streamline farmer access to data, tools, & applications –develop Internet content –host conferences & workshops –distribute brochures & electronic media –communicate via media outlets –conduct training seminars in the field –ensure products & services provide most recent information, consistently available Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board …help farmers make more useful, timely, and relevant decisions

19. Equipping the Farming Community Weather & climate information available but little directed specifically at farmers Collaboration between agricultural & meteorological communities is urgently needed –add value to weather & climate information already available –enhance farmer’s ability to manage risk User-friendly formats essential –consider farmer education & training –fulfill specific information & data needs Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board agrometeorological products & services weather & climate community agricultural community farmers ?

20. Equipping the Farming Community Weather & climate information available but little directed specifically at farmers Collaboration between agricultural & meteorological communities is urgently needed –add value to weather & climate information already available –enhance farmer’s ability to manage risk User-friendly formats essential –consider farmer education & training –fulfill specific information & data needs Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board agrometeorological products & services weather & climate community agricultural community farmers

21. Investing in the Farming Community Solicit farmer input/feedback to ensure products & services satisfy user requirements –focus initial product & service development –guide efforts to improve existing products & services –spur ideas for new products & services Forge partnerships between agrometeorological and farming communities to help farmers sustain and improve agricultural productivity Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

22. Thank you! Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board An Overview of Current Threats to Agriculture and Management Strategies