Presentation on theme: ": A service of the Southeast Climate Consortium C. Fraisse, D. Zierden, and J. Paz Climate Prediction Application Science Workshop Chapel Hill, NC March."— Presentation transcript:
: A service of the Southeast Climate Consortium C. Fraisse, D. Zierden, and J. Paz Climate Prediction Application Science Workshop Chapel Hill, NC March 4-7 2008
History: First steps towards becoming providers of climate forecast information User needs - Climate forecast information and decision support tools that are: Local Timely Come from a trusted source Grounded in physical processes Framed in historic context Our expertise: Extensive research and knowledge of ENSO variability in the Southeast Weather-driven crop modeling (DSSAT) Strong engagement and assessment of user needs Bringing it all together - partnership with USDA Risk Management Agency
First steps in 2004 First attempt to create a web site in 2004, this initial version was used to discuss content and organization of the site. Discussions in 2004 were dominated by database design, operational systems, and web site layout/contents
First interactions with Extension Services in the region First versions of Decision Support Tools were developed in Visual Basic for presentation to Extension Agents before implementation in the web. Our main concern was to have something to show when talking to Extension faculty and farmers.
Needs for Specific Commodities Climate-based Management options Web-based DSS Crop Models Climate-based tools Interaction (Participation) Interactions with Stakeholders – 2004/2005 Climate Forecast Stand alone decision-aid tools Farmers County Extension
First Online Version AgClimate goes online during the last quarter of 2004 Most of 2005 was spend developing content for the system: decision support tools and adaptation strategies
AgClimate 2007 Hosting, maintenance, and development responsibilities have been transferred to University of Florida Extension. Concerns in 2007 are more related to operational aspects and overall improvement of the system in terms of easiness to use, content, and coverage of commodities.
Climate and Agricultural Outlooks Outlooks are delivered every 1-2 months and have been very successful with stakeholders
Climate and Agricultural Outlooks Agricultural outlooks are written with input from Extension specialists and often contain management options.
Recent Developments - Climate Cooling and heating degree days forecast based on ENSO phase for all counties in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia
Recent Developments - Climate Probabilities for extreme low and high temperatures, as requested by producers. Min/max average temperatures are not as useful as extreme values.
Recent Developments – Crop Yield Improved (and simplified) crop yield risk tool incorporates suggestions received from Extension faculty during hands-on workshops. Peanut, Potato, and Tomato Better chances of high yield if planted earlier during La Nina years
Recent Developments - Irrigation Tool Net Returns ($/ac) for different planting dates and management (peanuts) Our first attempt to have more information in terms of economic impacts, need to expand!
Plans for 2008 Improve navigation Redesign pages that are too busy or difficult to read Improve help sections for the tools New layout planned for July 2008
Outlooks and general Information Improve our operational capabilities to deliver outlooks on time, difficult task in a academic environment but should improve under Extension supervision Add a drought section is being discussed, we see the need for more specific information based on requests from stakeholders during the 2007 drought
Yield Risk Forecasting (based on crop models and ENSO climatology) New crops will be added: Cotton - 2008 Corn - 2008 Pasture (Bermuda and Bahia grasses) - 2009
In-season Updates Stakeholders have asked for in-season updates of specific climate-derived variables such as growing degree days and chill hours accumulation Currently this information is offered by state weather networks and partnerships established with networks in Florida and Georgia will allow AgClimate to provide this service
In-season Updates: Chill Accumulation Chilling is a measure of the cool conditions that occur during the winter and promote rest and satisfaction of dormancy of crops For producers, tracking accumulation is as important as forecasting, in order to decide about spraying 2007/08 Hillsborough County, FL
Climate Change Fact Sheets Extension agents have been asking for information and educational materials about climate change Fact sheets are being produced covering the following topics: Basics of Climate Change Potential impacts on the agricultural industry Adaptation and mitigation strategies Additional concerns include sea level rise, carbon sequestration and trading mechanisms, and invasive species
Thank You! A Service of the Southeast Climate Consortium