Presentation on theme: "The Easter Freeze, 4-10 April 2007: An Assessment of Impacts and Services Ray Wolf and Doug Kluck NOAA/National Weather Service Climate Prediction Application."— Presentation transcript:
The Easter Freeze, 4-10 April 2007: An Assessment of Impacts and Services Ray Wolf and Doug Kluck NOAA/National Weather Service Climate Prediction Application Science Workshop, March 4-7, 2008
Outline Methodology The Event Impacts Services Recommendations
Motivation There is no systematic collection of data on the impacts of climatic extremes, and a national effort to begin such data collection is needed. Stan Changnon – Bulletin of the AMS, July 2005
Methodology Partnerships! State Climatologists and RCCs State Extension Service Specialists Agriculture Horticulture Economics U.S. Department of Agriculture National Climatic Data Center National Weather Service Central and Southern Regions Climate Prediction Center
Methodology The direct support of 3 dozen people across the central and eastern United States was crucial in putting this report together. Numerous additional contacts were made in gathering impact data.
The Event March temps 2-6°F above normal U.S. second warmest March on record Promoted early development of crops
The Event Early April Arctic Outbreak Widespread, record breaking, long duration, wind Susceptible crops were zapped
The Event 1237 broken records 321 tied records April
Impacts Over $2 billion in damage to agricultural and horticultural crops Winter wheat, rye, barley, corn (outside the Corn Belt), alfalfa, pastures Peaches, apples, blueberries, blackberries, strawberries, plums, grapes, pecans, tomatoes, sweet corn, cantaloupes, apricots, cherries, raspberries, pears, onions, potatoes, tobacco, nursery crops Fruit trees and grape vines lost in some areas
Impacts USDA disaster declarations
NWS Services Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day outlook issued March 29 – 7 day LT Hazards Assessment March 30 – 6 day LT Warning and Forecast Offices Hazardous Weather Outlook ~½ offices mentioned threat 2-5 day LT Area Forecast Discussion ~¾ offices mentioned threat 2-5 day LT Freeze Warnings 18 hour LT
NWS Services Service Summary – the good side Lead time of products was pretty good Active use of web pages/media to disseminate hazard risk A few offices coordinated with state extension services to document
NWS Services Service Summary – room for improvement More offices need to coordinate with state extension services to determine threat potential Get away from calendar-based freeze warnings Leverage CPC skill in week 2 in WFO day 7 forecasts Event is an opportunity to research forecast techniques for increasing lead time and accuracy of freeze forecasts
Recommendations (our opinions only) Multi-agency assessments of hazards such as freezes, droughts, and temperature extremes and their impacts are increasingly important as these events cause greater impacts on society. NWS offices need to develop greater ties with partners to be more attuned to needs related to freeze events.