Presentation on theme: "Carpe Technology! André V. Mendes Chief Technology Integration Officer PBS Technology, Distribution & Operations."— Presentation transcript:
Carpe Technology! André V. Mendes Chief Technology Integration Officer PBS Technology, Distribution & Operations
Warnings & Caveats This presentation reflects my opinions Things happen whether we like them or not Content –Focus on concepts rather than buzzwords –Relationships are not always apparent We will go fast, screen is busy Caveat emptor
A couple of questions…and answers! What is technology? –Technology is whatever did not exist when we were growing up! What is bandwidth? –Bandwidth is the capacity of a pathway to simultaneously carry a certain measure of information Straw vs. hose vs. fire hydrant vs. water main Dirt path vs. one lane road vs. 2-lane highway vs. 4-lane super highway
A great thinker once said… Nothing stays the same, and, if you dont want to grow, you will soon be passed by those who do! If we dont keep the future alive with realistic planning, then the alternative looks awfully grim Herodotus, 424 BC
From the beginning of time… We have evidence of a constant acceleration in the appearance and evolution of complex systems. First in the biological realm: –Primitive cells evolved in billions of years DNA – digital recording of evolution –Higher level organisms, tens of millions of years –Humanoids, millions of years –Homo Sapiens, hundreds of thousands Establishing a clear pattern of exponential growth Technology creating species meant a shift away from DNA (protein synthesis) based evolution!
Continuing at vertiginous speed… With man made technology: –Sharp edges, fire, wheel – tens of thousands –By 1000 AD big changes took 2 centuries –19 th century more growth than the previous 18 –First 20 years of the 20 th century eclipsed 19 th –WWW is 10 years old! –21 st Century expect 200 centuries of progress! Expectation of linear growth Double exponential growth
It is only going to get faster… Substantially faster! Some examples from 1993: –Took Intel 3 years from a 25 to a 50 MHz chip –We could pack 150 calls in one fiber strand –10 Megabyte drive cost $250 Today and in 2005 –25 MHz every 15 days, by 2005 every day –180 Million calls and by 2005 720 Million –$250 = 300 Gigabytes by 2005 1.5 Terabytes And completely ubiquitous!!
A few examples… RFIDS –Tiny chips with RF transmission capability Tracking, loss prevention, JIT inventory at shelves Few cents, Gillette bought 500 Million Wireless equipped microprocessors –Internet access from everywhere for everything Wi-FI, Mesh Networking –Cometa Networks (20K) IBM, Intel, AT&T –802.11n
Yet… despite all this progress Distinct patterns of growth, behavior, reaction, and counter reaction continue to emerge. They have been repeated throughout the ages, starting with the lowest of life forms and continuing today with the most complex technological advances Lets compare: 1 – The common cold 2 – The common PC Virus
The common cold Initial exposure to pathogenic vector Marshalling of host resources Furious viral DNA replication Immune system detection Antibody production Immune system reaction Infection is defeated (most times) Mutation occurs Cycle begins anew
The common computer virus Initial exposure to viral code (diskette, e-mail?) Marshalling of host resources Furious offending code replication Detected by System Administrator Upgrade Virus software Virus clean-up Virus is eradicated (most times) Viral code is modified Cycle begins anew
Why such similarities? Initial idea Hysteria Enthusiasm Reality Performance Maturation Disillusionment Adaptation All technological evolution processes share similar characteristics!
It happens with everything… From.. –Bacterial and viral infections –Antibiotics –Internet –Relationships, employees & employers Presents opportunities & dangers –Buying into the hype, pyramid scheme –Ignoring or overreacting to the dip –Ignoring the maturity phase
We anoint and believe experts! "Unlike with other famous bubbles... the Internet bubble is riding on rock-solid fundamentals, perhaps stronger than any the market has seen before. Underlying the crazy price increases are the foundations of what could become the early 21st century's leading growth companies.... Just because the Internet stock phenomenon looks like a bubble, it isn't a given that the bubble will burst. Henry Blodget, Leading Internet Analyst, Oppenheimer Funds 3/5/2000 March 10 th, 2000 Nasdaq at 5,048
We overestimate the short term… We overestimate the impact of new technologies over a 2 year time span –Web retail expectations –Broadband penetration –WAP/Wireless adoption Because… –Ignore implementation details –Sellers need to sell! –Buyers need to buy! –Dopeler effect
We underestimate long term… We tend to substantially underestimate the impact of technology changes over long haul (10+ years) –Personal computer, Internet –Biotechnology, Nanotechnology –Pervasive computing and bandwidth Because… –We look at progress on a linear scale –We evolved from yeast (not that smart)
We forget that If it can happen… It will! Is it physically possible ? Does it fulfill a basic human need/want? Is there money to be made from it? It will happen…. It will take over 100 years before we decode the entire human genome Bottstein, MIT 1975 It will take us another 3 or 4 decades before we finish the whole thing Ridley, CIT & MIT 1992 Done J. CraigVenter, Celera Genomics & Francis Collins, Human Genome Project June 2000
Now then… Whats next? We are reaching a critical stage in a variety of scientific and technological disciplines As knowledge in each area deepens, we are coming to the realization that they are deeply intertwined at the most elemental levels: –From physical sciences to life sciences –From computer sciences to anthropology –From political studies to economics We increasingly leverage and cross pollinate across disciplines in order to further accelerate the process
The other confluence.. Computer systems will continue to evolve into complex, organism and societal like, systems –Redundant physiological pathways –Self healing operating systems (DNA) –Real time complex pattern recognition Voice, images, faces, usage patterns –Immune system like responses Security, fraud detection, self education –Displaying behaviors like: Inheritance and evolution, Real time reactions to maintain homeostasis or increase functionality –And eventually….think!
How soon? 2005 Blue Gene (1 billion megaflops) –1/20 th capacity of human brain 100B neurons X 1000 connections X 200 calcs/sec 2010 - Supercomputer = Human brain 2020 - $1000 PC = Human brain 2050 - $1000 = Brain power of the entire population Ray Kurzweil – The law of accelerating returns
As terrifying as that can be… Was Bill Joy right ? –Kurzweils prediction ($1,000 by 2020) –30 – 50% chance of extinction Probably not! The paradox of the visionary –Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor, 2001 The more accurate a vision is and the more it destabilizes the present, the less likely it is to come true
Meanwhile…humans not sitting still Mankind will continue to achieve mastery and control of its own evolutionary mechanisms –Return to DNA based evolution Through: –Genetic correction/optimization –Smart drugs(cortical speed, improved memory) –Nanotechnology implantation –Wet interfaces Mankind will assimilate functionality that we associate with sophisticated computer systems –Functionality add-ons Processing, storage, knowledge Backup and restore
Some of it happening today.. Through external attachments –PDAs, Cell phones Cochlear implants –Inner ear electronic implants –Electrical connections to nervous system Temporary silicon retinal implants Mouse controlled by brain implanted electrodes. Intelligent prosthetics. And even artificial vision for the blind. Will we live to see it?
Will it happen ? Is it physically possible ? Does it fulfill a basic human need/want? Is there money to be made from it? It will happen…. faster & faster The human race will rapidly evolve in the near future. It may not be in accord with democratic and egalitarian principles, but then again Darwinian evolution has never been politically correct Stephen Hawking Ph.D.
Wow! Pretty interesting but… How does this affect Public Broadcasting? What can we do to assure that we continue to fulfill our mission? How can we assure relevancy and survival? I do not believe that you can do todays job with yesterdays methods and be in business tomorrowNelson Jackson
A trip back to April, 2000… Old Economy –Over 6,000 planes –300,000+ employees –Worldwide impact –Brand recognition –Billions in hard assets Market valuation ? –$14 billion New E-conomy –0 airplanes –200+ employees –Brand recognition –Regional impact –10 Million in Servers (9 M in last 3 months) Market valuation ? –$14.4 billion
Where do they stand today? Today: –USAirways just emerged from Ch. 11 –UAL looks ready to enter receivership –AMR is staving it off? –CO also struggling –Market valuation ? $1.1 billion New E-conomy –0 airplanes Market valuation ? –$380 million
Meanwhile… Only two major airlines made money in 2002! Southwest Airlines –$11.3 billion market cap –$241 million profit in 2002 JetBlue Airlines –$1.8 billion market cap –$51 million profit in 2002
Why is Southwest so successful? Operational efficiencies –Southwest uses 1 type of airplane (737) Lower training, maintenance, parts depot costs Faster equipment replacements –Turn around times Flight attendants clean the airplane –Operational simplicity Boarding is performed by flight attendants Seat anywhere 1 class of service Frequent flyer program simplicity Total employee participation and buy-in Emphasis on end-to-end supply chain management
Today, SCM is an imperative! Mitsubishi produces 60 cars per hour in a mostly automated JIT factory –Tires come straight from loading dock to line Chrysler slashed time to market –Concept to showroom from 7 years to 3 All development is virtual –Goal is 18 months by 2005 Most supplies for Iraq war were electronically tagged from factory to battlefield
We must assume that… Processing, storage and distribution technology will continue to exhibit massive improvement in price performance ratios Because of fast system turnover, capital requirements will be massive and project amortizable lifespan will be shorter Modularity and interoperability will be essential and will require standardization Limiting factors will be capital, human resources, technical skills and training
So it follows that we must… Follow sound investment principles –Leverage economies of scale –Optimize the PB supply chain –Follow established best practices –Learn from industries whose deployment of technology is ahead of PB –Stop thinking Station, start thinking system –Avoid the slow boiling frog scenario
Content is king….. But as the amount of content grows, the latency shrinks and the number and complexity of delivery channels increases rapidly, the creation, deployment, maintenance and effective use of a streamlined distribution system can spell the difference between a valuable cultural contribution and relegation to niche player status. –40,000 books in Alexandria, Egypt –Gutenbergs press role in the renaissance –Mendels Experiments with plant hybrids
Questions? NOW ! At any other time you can reach me by Phone: (703) 739-7521 or e-mail :firstname.lastname@example.org