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The golden age of technology

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1 The golden age of technology
André V. Mendes CTIO PBS

2 Warnings & Caveats This presentation reflects my opinions
Things happen whether we like them or not Focus on concepts rather than specific buzzwords We will go fast, screen is busy Caveat emptor

3 A quick baseline… Introduction, hysteria, disappointment, maturity, productivity We overestimate short term effects of technological change Web retail We underestimate long terms effects of technological change We evolved from yeast!

4 “Advancing waves of other people’s progress sweep over the unchanging man and wash him out. You need to organize a department of systematic change-making!” Charles Kettering, speech to US Chamber of Commerce, 1929

5 What is “Technology”? Technology is whatever did not exist when we were growing up: Swords and catapults Gutemberg’s press & Leeuwenhoek’s microscope Electricity, telephone Radio & television Computers and antibiotics Internet and robots

6 It is constantly accelerating…
You’re not crazy… Things are getting faster! For the past few billion years Primitive cells evolved in billions of years DNA – digital recording of evolution Higher level organisms, tens of millions of years Humanoids, millions of years Homo Sapiens, hundreds of thousands Technology creating species meant a shift away from DNA (protein synthesis) based evolution!

7 Pedal to the metal… With man made technology:
Sharp edges, fire, wheel – tens of thousands By 1000 AD big changes took 2 centuries 19th century more growth than the previous 18 First 20 years of the 20th century eclipsed 19th WWW is 11 years old! 21st Century expect 200 centuries of progress! Expectation of linear growth Double exponential growth


9 Let’s talk about change!
Tbps I backbone Gbps ESCON (fiber) channel Network bandwidth Mbps Wireless LANs Bus & tag PC modem Kbps 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

10 Converging accelerations
1,000,000X 100,000x 10,000x 1,000x 100X 10X MIPS storage bandwidth 1X 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

11 Hence change in computing paradigms!
Host based (Mainframes, mini-computers) CPU and storage absurdly expensive Bandwidth basically inexistent Client Server CPU still costly, storage cheaper External bandwidth still basically inexistent Web era Cheap CPU & Storage, costly bandwidth Web Services realm Cheap CPU, storage and bandwidth Virtual reality realm Virtually free CPU, storage and bandwidth

12 Now then… What’s next? We are reaching a critical stage in a variety of scientific and technological disciplines As our knowledge in each individual arena deepens, we are coming to the realization that they are deeply intertwined at the most elemental levels: Physical Sciences Life Sciences Computer Sciences Anthropology Societal Studies Economics We increasingly leverage and cross pollinate across disciplines in order to further accelerate the process


14 Which brings forth… Incredible scientific progress:
We are taking charge of the human evolutionary process with a return to protein synthesis (DNA) based evolution Single gene correction Telomerase vaccine Nano scale implants Drug dispensing, disease detection, electrical stimulation Stem cells Nervous system & brain tissue regeneration “Wet” interfaces Cochlear implants Artificial vision

15 Artificial vision

16 Artificial vision

17 At the same time… We continue to embed biological like behavior into our computer systems DNA regeneration, immune system Self healing OS, virus detection Training & Learned behavior Fraud detection Voice recognition, pen recognition Visual memory Pattern recognition, facial id’s Cloning, resource re-allocation, maintenance of homeostasis

18 For all practical purposes…
Computer systems have, almost invisibly, become members of society: My travel agent is Expedia My research assistance is Google My broker is E-trade And stratify into core competencies like humans do. They will supplement each others through technologies like Web Services with: Pay per service fees (Micro Payments) Industry specific lingo (XML variants) Yellow pages (UDDI)

19 And we are becoming… Willing participants in their virtual realm
Through increasingly sophisticated Avatars Constantly researching on our behalf Is there a fare sale to Lisbon? Is there a 1971 E-type Jag on e-bay? Any new studies on cartilage replacement surgery? Which VOIP provider has the best rates? Any new FCC pronouncements on DTV By 2030 a substantial portion of our daily interaction will be in a virtual environment!

20 Over the next few years…
A substantial number of fundamental technologies will move beyond the hype and squarely into “full productivity” Technology will move further away from a “mushroom” type of influence and into a “yeast” like effect whose impact will be profound in every section of society. From medicine to entertainment From manufacturing to sales From education to military Technology will be essential, pervasive and will continue to disappear into the background!

21 Technology will show in..
Ever increasing percentage of GDP Productivity enablement Economic growth, low inflation Fully informed manufacturing cycles Supply chain, ERP, E-commerce, CRM Aggregation of data Company, area, region, national Enables economic stimulus, pullback Shortens and shallows recessionary periods



24 Interestingly enough…
Unemployment and underemployment will continue to very slowly rise Outsourcing and tipping points Remove bandwidth obstacles Generate enough demand (90’s bubble) Global economy Effectively, outsourcing is a web service! Bidirectional with an outward bias!

25 Today, SCM is an imperative!
Mitsubishi produces 60 cars per hour in a mostly automated JIT factory Tires come straight from loading dock to line Chevrolet slashes time to market New model variant every 22 days!!!! WallMart and Home Depot have mandated RFID usage by major suppliers by 2005 Southwest, Jet Blue, Air Tran

26 “I do not believe that you can do today’s job with yesterday’s methods and be in business tomorrow” Nelson Jackson

27 What must PTV do…. Optimize the entire PTV supply chain
From producers to aggregators/distributors From distributors to member stations From member stations to end users Optimize content and its granularity Standardize metadata Ingest once Eliminate codec cycles Optimize distribution Modularize each step maximizing ability to change Eliminate redundant processes Focus on core competencies and local impact

28 Public Television’s Content Supply Chain
Manufacturing Distribution Retail Consumer WGBH/WNET Traffic and underwriting Hosted scheduling & underwriting M1 M2 P1 P2 M1 M2 Local production Orion/Broadview Transmitter P1 P2 M1 M2 M2 M1 NETA/APT Edge server, automation, branding & ATSC encoding M1 M2 Server & Archive P1 P2 P1 P2 P1 Cable Head end P1 P2 P1 P2 P2 P1 P2 Other Producers M1 M2 P2 P1 P2 P1 DBS LTL Monitoring & resolution Monitoring & resolution P1 P2 Hardware, software, audio and video monitoring Internet

29 Questions?

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