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The golden age of technology André V. Mendes CTIOPBS.

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Presentation on theme: "The golden age of technology André V. Mendes CTIOPBS."— Presentation transcript:

1 The golden age of technology André V. Mendes CTIOPBS

2 Warnings & Caveats This presentation reflects my opinions This presentation reflects my opinions Things happen whether we like them or not Things happen whether we like them or not Focus on concepts rather than specific buzzwords Focus on concepts rather than specific buzzwords We will go fast, screen is busy We will go fast, screen is busy Caveat emptor Caveat emptor

3 A quick baseline… Introduction, hysteria, disappointment, maturity, productivity Introduction, hysteria, disappointment, maturity, productivity We overestimate short term effects of technological change We overestimate short term effects of technological change –Web retail We underestimate long terms effects of technological change We underestimate long terms effects of technological change –We evolved from yeast!

4 Advancing waves of other peoples progress sweep over the unchanging man and wash him out. You need to organize a department of systematic change-making! Charles Kettering, speech to US Chamber of Commerce, 1929

5 What is Technology? Technology is whatever did not exist when we were growing up: Technology is whatever did not exist when we were growing up: –Swords and catapults –Gutembergs press & Leeuwenhoeks microscope –Electricity, telephone –Radio & television –Computers and antibiotics –Internet and robots

6 It is constantly accelerating… Youre not crazy… Things are getting faster! Youre not crazy… Things are getting faster! For the past few billion years For the past few billion years –Primitive cells evolved in billions of years DNA – digital recording of evolution DNA – digital recording of evolution –Higher level organisms, tens of millions of years –Humanoids, millions of years –Homo Sapiens, hundreds of thousands Technology creating species meant a shift away from DNA (protein synthesis) based evolution! Technology creating species meant a shift away from DNA (protein synthesis) based evolution!

7 Pedal to the metal… With man made technology: With man made technology: –Sharp edges, fire, wheel – tens of thousands –By 1000 AD big changes took 2 centuries –19 th century more growth than the previous 18 –First 20 years of the 20 th century eclipsed 19 th –WWW is 11 years old! –21 st Century expect 200 centuries of progress! Expectation of linear growth Expectation of linear growth Double exponential growth Double exponential growth

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9 1960s 1970s1980s1990s2000s Network bandwidth Kbps Mbps Gbps Tbps 2010s I backbone ESCON (fiber) channel PC modem Bus & tag Wireless LANs Lets talk about change!

10 1970s1980s1990s2000s2010s 1X 10X 100X 1,000x 10,000x 100,000x 1,000,000X bandwidth storage MIPS Converging accelerations

11 Hence change in computing paradigms! Host based (Mainframes, mini-computers) Host based (Mainframes, mini-computers) –CPU and storage absurdly expensive –Bandwidth basically inexistent Client Server Client Server –CPU still costly, storage cheaper –External bandwidth still basically inexistent Web era Web era –Cheap CPU & Storage, costly bandwidth Web Services realm Web Services realm –Cheap CPU, storage and bandwidth Virtual reality realm Virtual reality realm –Virtually free CPU, storage and bandwidth

12 Now then… Whats next? We are reaching a critical stage in a variety of scientific and technological disciplines We are reaching a critical stage in a variety of scientific and technological disciplines As our knowledge in each individual arena deepens, we are coming to the realization that they are deeply intertwined at the most elemental levels: As our knowledge in each individual arena deepens, we are coming to the realization that they are deeply intertwined at the most elemental levels: –Physical Sciences –Life Sciences –Computer Sciences –Anthropology –Societal Studies –Economics We increasingly leverage and cross pollinate across disciplines in order to further accelerate the process We increasingly leverage and cross pollinate across disciplines in order to further accelerate the process

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14 Which brings forth… Incredible scientific progress: Incredible scientific progress: –We are taking charge of the human evolutionary process with a return to protein synthesis (DNA) based evolution Single gene correction Single gene correction Telomerase vaccine Telomerase vaccine –Nano scale implants Drug dispensing, disease detection, electrical stimulation Drug dispensing, disease detection, electrical stimulation –Stem cells Nervous system & brain tissue regeneration Nervous system & brain tissue regeneration –Wet interfaces Cochlear implants Cochlear implants Artificial vision Artificial vision

15 Artificial vision

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17 At the same time… We continue to embed biological like behavior into our computer systems We continue to embed biological like behavior into our computer systems –DNA regeneration, immune system Self healing OS, virus detection Self healing OS, virus detection –Training & Learned behavior Fraud detection Fraud detection Voice recognition, pen recognition Voice recognition, pen recognition –Visual memory Pattern recognition, facial ids Pattern recognition, facial ids –Cloning, resource re-allocation, maintenance of homeostasis

18 For all practical purposes… Computer systems have, almost invisibly, become members of society: Computer systems have, almost invisibly, become members of society: –My travel agent is Expedia –My research assistance is Google –My broker is E-trade And stratify into core competencies like humans do. And stratify into core competencies like humans do. They will supplement each others through technologies like Web Services with: They will supplement each others through technologies like Web Services with: –Pay per service fees (Micro Payments) –Industry specific lingo (XML variants) –Yellow pages (UDDI)

19 And we are becoming… Willing participants in their virtual realm Willing participants in their virtual realm –Through increasingly sophisticated Avatars –Constantly researching on our behalf Is there a fare sale to Lisbon? Is there a fare sale to Lisbon? Is there a 1971 E-type Jag on e-bay? Is there a 1971 E-type Jag on e-bay? Any new studies on cartilage replacement surgery? Any new studies on cartilage replacement surgery? Which VOIP provider has the best rates? Which VOIP provider has the best rates? Any new FCC pronouncements on DTV Any new FCC pronouncements on DTV By 2030 a substantial portion of our daily interaction will be in a virtual environment! By 2030 a substantial portion of our daily interaction will be in a virtual environment!

20 Over the next few years… A substantial number of fundamental technologies will move beyond the hype and squarely into full productivity A substantial number of fundamental technologies will move beyond the hype and squarely into full productivity Technology will move further away from a mushroom type of influence and into a yeast like effect whose impact will be profound in every section of society. Technology will move further away from a mushroom type of influence and into a yeast like effect whose impact will be profound in every section of society. –From medicine to entertainment –From manufacturing to sales –From education to military Technology will be essential, pervasive and will continue to disappear into the background! Technology will be essential, pervasive and will continue to disappear into the background!

21 Technology will show in.. Ever increasing percentage of GDP Ever increasing percentage of GDP Productivity enablement Productivity enablement –Economic growth, low inflation Fully informed manufacturing cycles Fully informed manufacturing cycles –Supply chain, ERP, E-commerce, CRM Aggregation of data Aggregation of data –Company, area, region, national –Enables economic stimulus, pullback Shortens and shallows recessionary periods Shortens and shallows recessionary periods

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24 Interestingly enough… Unemployment and underemployment will continue to very slowly rise Unemployment and underemployment will continue to very slowly rise Outsourcing and tipping points Outsourcing and tipping points –Remove bandwidth obstacles –Generate enough demand (90s bubble) –Global economy Effectively, outsourcing is a web service! Effectively, outsourcing is a web service! Bidirectional with an outward bias! Bidirectional with an outward bias!

25 Today, SCM is an imperative! Mitsubishi produces 60 cars per hour in a mostly automated JIT factory Mitsubishi produces 60 cars per hour in a mostly automated JIT factory –Tires come straight from loading dock to line Chevrolet slashes time to market Chevrolet slashes time to market –New model variant every 22 days!!!! WallMart and Home Depot have mandated RFID usage by major suppliers by 2005 WallMart and Home Depot have mandated RFID usage by major suppliers by 2005 Southwest, Jet Blue, Air Tran Southwest, Jet Blue, Air Tran

26 I do not believe that you can do todays job with yesterdays methods and be in business tomorrowNelson JacksonI do not believe that you can do todays job with yesterdays methods and be in business tomorrowNelson Jackson

27 What must PTV do…. Optimize the entire PTV supply chain Optimize the entire PTV supply chain –From producers to aggregators/distributors –From distributors to member stations –From member stations to end users Optimize content and its granularity Optimize content and its granularity Standardize metadata Standardize metadata Ingest once Ingest once Eliminate codec cycles Eliminate codec cycles Optimize distribution Optimize distribution Modularize each step maximizing ability to change Modularize each step maximizing ability to change Eliminate redundant processes Eliminate redundant processes Focus on core competencies and local impact Focus on core competencies and local impact

28 Public Televisions Content Supply Chain WGBH/WNET M1 P1 M2 P2 NETA/APT M1 P1 M2 P2 Other Producers M1 P1 M2 P2 Orion/Broadview M1 Hosted scheduling & underwriting M2 M1 P1 M2 P2 M1 Traffic and underwriting Local production P1P2P1P2P1P2 Server & Archive Hardware, software, audio and video monitoring P1P2P1P2P1P2P1P2 Edge server, automation, branding & ATSC encoding ManufacturingDistributionRetailConsumer Monitoring & resolution Cable Head end DBS LTL Transmitter Internet

29 Questions?


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