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Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist

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Presentation on theme: "Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist"— Presentation transcript:

1 Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Outlook Oct. 30, 2017 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2 U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted
(mil. acres) 95.4 90.6 88.0 94.0 90.4 Yield (bu./acre) 158.1 171.0 168.4 174.6 171.8 Production (mil. bu.) 13,829 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,280 Beg. Stocks 821 1,232 1,731 1,737 2,295 Imports 36 32 67 57 50 Total Supply 14,686 15,479 15,401 16,942 16,625 Feed & Residual 5,040 5,280 5,120 5,464 5,500 Ethanol 5,124 5,200 5,224 5,438 5,475 Food, Seed, & Other 1,369 1,401 1,422 1,452 1,460 Exports 1,920 1,867 1,898 2,293 1,850 Total Use 13,454 13,748 13,664 14,647 14,285 Ending Stocks 2,340 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.46 3.70 3.61 3.36 3.20 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3 U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil. acres) 76.8 83.3 82.7 83.4 90.2 Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 47.5 48.0 52.0 49.5 Production (mil. bu.) 3,358 3,927 3,926 4,296 4,431 Beg. Stocks 141 92 191 197 301 Imports 72 33 24 22 25 Total Supply 3,570 4,052 4,140 4,515 4,757 Crush 1,734 1,873 1,886 1,899 1,940 Seed & Residual 107 146 122 136 Exports 1,638 1,842 1,936 2,174 2,250 Total Use 3,478 3,862 3,944 4,214 4,326 Ending Stocks 430 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 13.00 10.10 8.95 9.47 9.20 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4 Projected Corn Yields Top: 2017 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS 4 4

5 Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2017 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS 5 5

6 World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7 World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8 U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9 U.S. Meat Trade Million pounds Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10 Key factors for 2017 and beyond
Crops/Feedstuffs – BULLISH for livestock sector. Supply – Growing and competing animal protein supplies. Domestic Demand – Increasingly competitive environment, battle for market share. Trade – Stabilizing factor. Strong exports and declining imports. Producers resiliently charging ahead.

11 +8.1% (‘15 vs ‘14) +2.4% (‘16 vs ‘15) +3.2% (’17YTD vs ’16YTD)
Source: USDA/AMS. * Steve Meyer, EMI.

12 Source: Steve Meyer. Published in National Hog Farmer Magazine, July 27, 2017.

13 Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

14 LMIC Pork Production Quarterly Forecasts (10/2/17)
Sources: USDA/NASS; USDA/AMS Livestock Market News; Projections and Forecasts by LMIC

15 Year-over-Year Prices: Lean Hogs

16 Data Source: USDA-NASS; Forecasts by LMIC

17 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

18 Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

19 Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

20 Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

21 Year-over-Year Prices: Live Cattle

22 Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

23 Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

24 Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

25 Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

26 Ethanol Production Sources: EIA, my projection for 2017

27 Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

28 Current Corn Futures 3.95 3.55 Source: CME Group, 10/27/2017

29 Current Soybean Futures
9.86 9.70 Source: CME Group, 10/27/2017

30 2017/18 Crop Margins

31 Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker:


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