1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Trade
June 19, 2017
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. Source: USDA-FAS

3. Source: USDA-FAS

4. Source: USDA-FAS

5. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.0
90.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
158.1
171.0
168.4
174.6
170.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,829
14,216
13,602
15,148
14,065
Beg. Stocks
821
1,232
1,731
1,737
2,295
Imports 36 32 67 55 50
Total Supply
14,686
15,479
15,401
16,940
16,410
Feed & Residual
5,040
5,280
5,120
5,500
5,425
Ethanol
5,124
5,200
5,224
5,450
Food, Seed, & Other
1,369
1,401
1,422
1,470
1,500
Exports
1,920
1,867
1,898
2,225
1,875
Total Use
13,454
13,748
13,664
14,645
14,300
Ending Stocks
2,110
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.46
3.70
3.61
3.35
3.40
Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

6. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
76.8
83.3
82.7
83.4
89.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
47.5
48.0
52.1
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,358
3,927
3,926
4,307
4,255
Beg. Stocks
141 92
191
197
450
Imports 72 33 24 25
Total Supply
3,570
4,052
4,140
4,528
4,730
Crush
1,734
1,873
1,886
1,910
1,950
Seed & Residual
107
146
122
118
135
Exports
1,638
1,842
1,936
2,050
2,150
Total Use
3,478
3,862
3,944
4,078
4,235
Ending Stocks
495
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
13.00
10.10
8.95
9.55
9.30
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

8. Change in Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

9. Change in Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

10. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. U.S. Meat Trade
Million pounds
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. U.S. Pork Exports, Jan-Mar 2017
(Carcass Wt Basis)
Mar-17/Feb-17
Mar-17/Mar-16
Year-to-Date
Country
Percent
1,000 lbs
Japan
18% 4%
22,702 8%
Mexico 7%
40%
116,448
33%
Canada
61% 6% 28 0%
South Korea
38%
37,960
32%
China (Mainland)
14%
-22%
-10,354
-9%
Hong Kong
25%
-29%
-8,297
Australia
-17%
15,250
34%
Philippines
50%
719 5%
China (Taiwan)
123%
46%
699
16%
Colombia
-15%
95%
21,612
98%
Honduras
-8%
13%
2,053
11%
Dominican Republic
-2%
12%
5,033
28%
Guatemala
-20%
-16%
-1,007
-10%
Chile
74%
44%
5,475
75%
Other Countries
15%
658 2%
Total
208,977
17%
WASDE U.S.: 2015: 5,009 mil lbs : 5,233 (+4%) : 5,670 (+8%)
Source: USDA/ERS

13. U.S. Beef Exports, Jan-Mar 2017
(Carcass Weight Basis)
Mar-17/Feb-17
Mar-17/Mar-16
Year-to-Date
Country
Percent
1,000 lbs
Mexico
16%
17,261
22%
Japan
17%
43%
60,632
44%
Canada 2%
23%
12,591
19%
South Korea
10%
30%
22,917
28%
Hong Kong
20%
-1%
-12,947
-16%
China (Taiwan)
13%
25%
5,816
24%
Vietnam 6%
178%
2,384
78%
Netherlands
55%
3,179
Philippines 9%
86%
2,788
56%
Bahamas 8%
-27%
-345
-13%
United Arab Emirates
51%
-18%
-357
-8%
Chile
-10%
111
Dominican Republic
-4%
565
Indonesia
1329%
-42%
-1,589
-53%
Italy
32%
1,218
46%
Other Countries
12%
2,653
Total
14%
116,877
WASDE U.S.: 2015: 2,265 mil lbs : (+13%) : 2,725 (+7%)
Source: USDA/ERS

14. U.S. Beef Imports, Jan-Mar 2017
(Carcass Weight Basis)
Mar-17/Feb-17
Mar-17/Mar-16
Year-to-Date
Country
Percent
1,000 lbs
Australia
78%
-29%
-95,455
-40%
Canada
23%
-2%
-14,532
-9%
New Zealand
14%
-5%
-29,744
-15%
Brazil
176%
64%
4,462
17%
Uruguay
79%
-13%
-4,210
-16%
Mexico
33%
38,696
36%
Nicaragua
55%
49%
6,969
28%
Costa Rica
123%
68%
308 4%
Other Countries
21% 9%
-344
-12%
Total
35%
-1%
-93,851
WASDE U.S.: 2015: 3,371 mil lbs : 3,016 (-11%) : 2,745 (-9%)
Source: USDA/ERS

15. Value of Ag Trade
Source: USDA-FAS

16. U.S. Ag Exports
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Agricultural Trade with Canada
NAFTA
Two-way trade up 393% since NAFTA
Source: US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics, FATUS export aggregations

18. Agricultural Trade with Mexico
NAFTA
Two-way trade up 517% since NAFTA
Source: US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics, FATUS export aggregations

19. Iowa’s state export rankings, 2015
# 2 Soybeans $2.516 billion
# 1 Pork $1.988 billion
# 1 Feeds $1.506 billion
# 1 Corn $1.398 billion
# 2 Soybean meal $639 million
# 2 Vegetable oils $392 million
# 4 Beef $356 million
# 2 Hides $293 million
# 12 Dairy $122 million
Source: USDA Economic Research Service, “State Export Data”

20. Iowa’s top 10 manufactured exports, 2015
1. Tractors $764 million
2. Herbicides million
3. Aircraft engines/parts 264 million
4. Harvesting machinery 259 million
5. Aluminum alloy plates 250 million
6. Front-end loaders million
7. Special purpose vehicles 152 million
8. Excavators million
9. Ag/Hort/Forestry mach. 116 million
10. Medical instruments million
Source:

21. World Corn Markets
Source: USDA 21 21

22. Arable Land

23. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: