3/8/20161 The Strategy, Prediction, and Knowledge To Win Elections.

Key Concepts Targeting Turnout Voting History Party Performance Base Swing Persuadables (not same a Independents) 3/8/20162

3 Strategy describes who is going to vote for you and why. Targeting determines strategy; making campaign decisions rational and manageable. If you’re a gambler, targeting allows you in “playing the percentages.”

3/8/20164 Targeting prioritizes three fundamental campaign resources TIME MONEYPEOPLE

3/8/20165 Birds of a Feather, Flock Together! If you Want to Catch Fish, Fish where the Fish Are! Past Behavior is the Best Indicator of Future Behavior!

3/8/20166 REGISTER: Change the nature of the electorate PERSUADE: Persuade those open to new information GOTV: Motivate unmotivated voters who are reluctant

3/8/20167 Not Everyone Registers, Votes, Cares, or Listens! Don’t Underestimate the voters’ intelligence. Never Overestimate their interest in politics.

3/8/20168 WHO IS BEING TARGETED? Soccer moms? Nascar dads? Newly registered voters? Soft Democrats? Middle Class families? Union Members? Voters from certain precincts or wards? WHY, WHERE, HOW, AND WHEN?

3/8/20169 Message Selection Paid Media Placement & Timing Schedule Decisions Free Media: Location & Outlets Field Choices Get Out the Vote Activities TARGETING SHOULD INFLUENCE EVERY CAMPAIGN DECISION!

3/8/ GEOGRAPHY: PREVIOUS ELECTION RESULTS: TURNOUT PATTERNS:

3/8/201611

3/8/ DEMOGRAPHY: CENSUS DATA: AUDIT OF CANVAS:

3/8/ LIST CREATION: VOTER FILES MEMBER FILES

3/8/ LIKE YEARS A.2004 and 2008 B and LIKE ELECTIONS A and 2004 B and LIKE COMPETITIVENESS A. Similarity of Candidates’ Styles, Politics, etc. B. Up-Ballot Races, Issues on ballot

3/8/ REGISTRATION TRENDS & DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES 5. BALLOT INITIATIVES Hot Issues and Referendums NOTE: Rural: High Turnout Urban: Likely to Change Election to Election

3/8/ SURGE 2. COATTAILS 3. DROP OFF 4. BANDWAGON 5. VOTE HISTORY 6. MOBILITY [ Read More ] [ Read More ]

3/8/ GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION RACE INCOME/EDUCATION PARTY IDEOLOGY GENDER PROFESSION ISSUES/ATTITUDES

3/8/ Microtargeting Tracks individual voters and identifies potential supporters rather than in groups. Tailors messages to demographic subgroups. May require a large database Matches vote history to other factors. In it’s largest iteration, tracks voters’ consumer habits including subscriptions, TV preferences, liesure activities, etc.

3/8/ Microtargeting Added to this is political activity data: –Voting history, contributions, etc. Run through GIS (Geographic Information System) for region-based trends. Consumer preferences overlayed on geography and political activity allow for detailed targeting of individuals rather than groups!

3/8/ Microtargeting Married woman, 28 –Merchandising exec. –Owns home in Fairfax –Subscribes to Time, Parenting –Married with 1 child, 2 –Has frequent flier acct with 3 airlines –Contributes to NRA, VARTL –Votes in Prez Years Voter Profile –Married women <30 –Business professionals –Exurban Home owners –Time readers w/Kids –Pre-School children –Regular traveler –Conservative –Votes Republican

3/8/ TOTAL EXPECTED TURNOUT = - Current Reg. X Expected Turnout Determine the Democratic & Republican Base Vote Quantify the Swing Vote and Describe its segments WHERE DO YOU STAND?

Hi-performance precincts: –Better than 50% vote for your party. –Register, GOTV Lo-performance precincts: –Less than 50% support –Persuasion, microtargeting 3/8/201622

3/8/ Regular Voters Occasional Voters Non-Voters Your Supporters Swing Voters Opponent’s Supporters

Precinct 1: Adult Population: 1500 Registered Voters: 500 (33%) Average Total Turnout: 400 (80%) Average Party Turnout: 320 (80%)

Precinct 2: Adult Population: 516 Registered Voters: 500 (98%) Average Total Turnout: 375 (75%) Average Party Turnout: 140 (40%)

Precinct 3: Adult Population: 1000 Registered Voters: 500 (50%) Average Total Turnout: 250 (50%) Average Party Turnout: 100 (40%)

Precinct: 4: Adult Population: 833 Registered Voters: 500 (60%) Average Total Turnout: 300 (60%) Average Party Turnout: 240 (80%)

Precinct: 5: Adult Population: 1000 Registered Voters: 500 (50%) Average Total Turnout: 400 (80%) Average Party Turnout: 320 (80%)

Precinct: 6 Adult Population: 625 Registered Voters: 500 (80%) Average Total Turnout: 300 (60%) Average Party Turnout: 180 (60%)

Precinct: 7 Adult Population: 1500 Registered Voters: 500 (33%) Average Total Turnout: 400 (80%) Average Party Turnout: 132 (33%)

3/8/ Target Persuadable Voters: –Identify Ticket Splitters –Calculate persuadable voters by Geographic and Demographic segment Where Do You Want To Go?

3/8/ Identify and Hold Base Appeal to Independent Voters in strongly partisan precincts Appeal to Independents in Democratic households WHERE DO YOU NEED TO GO?

3/8/ Appeal to pure Independents in midrange of % performance precincts Vote Goal= (Turnout by Segment) X (Performance by Segment) Additional Factors: Absentee Voting, Early Voting, Vote by Mail, and Emergency Voting WHERE DO YOU NEED TO GO?

3/8/ VOTER REGISTRATION: –Voting age population x High Party Performance= Registration Potential. –In high performing precincts take the: V.A.P. – Current Registration X High Party % = Registration Performance GOTV: Identify low turn-out precincts in high Party Performance areas WHERE DO YOU NEED TO GO?

3/8/ Blind Pull Areas- Whole Precincts Targeted Pull Areas- –Select Groups Demographic Appeal –Voter ID –Voter History –Previous Persuasion Activities

3/8/ ESTABLISH EARLY CREDIBILITY a.Endorsements b.Press c.Opinion Leader Outreach d.Fundraising e.Poll Numbers f.Describe Path to Victory 2.CREATE A BASE a. Describe & identify both your & your opponent’s base

3/8/ IDENTIFY UNKNOWNS 4. PERSUADE UNKNOWNS 5. RE-ID 6. BANDWAGON VOTERS 7. GOTV 8. WIN