1. 2-5: Voter Turnout and Voter Choice

2. Big Idea: Methods of Political Analysis
Enduring Understanding:
Factors associated with political ideology, efficacy, structural barriers, and demographics influence the nature and degree of political participation.
Learning Objectives:
Describe different models of voting behavior.
Explain the roles that individual choice and state laws play in voter turnout in elections.

3. Deciding to Vote Political Efficacy Trends
60% of eligible voters participate in presidential elections
Most citizens do not vote in nonpresidential elections
U.S. turnout rate much lower than in the rest of the world
Individuals with high levels of political efficacy and civic duty are more likely to vote. Some people will vote simply to support democratic government.
Individuals who see policy differences between the two parties are more likely to vote. The greater the policy differences between the candidates, the more likely voters will be able to steer government policies by their choices.
Politicians listen far more carefully to groups with high turnout rates, as they know their fate may well be in their hands.
On the whole, voter participation has been declining over the past 100 years.

4. Factors that Decrease Turnout
Voter Registration
Must complete registration before you can vote
Significantly reduces fraud
Serves as an obstacle
U.S. registered voters compare with Europe, but only 2/3 are registered
Motor Voter Act (1993)

5. Factors that Decrease Turnout
Decline in Political Efficacy
Rise of cynicism
Distrust of government
Frequent Elections
Weekday Voting
Most other countries hold elections on national holidays or weekends
Photo ID Laws

6. Factors Influencing Turnout
Education
Income
Age
Gender
Religion
Race
People with more education are more likely to vote.
People with more income are more likely to vote.
Older people are more likely to vote than younger people.
Women vote at higher percentages than men.
Jews and Catholics are more likely to vote than Protestants.
Whites tend to have higher turnout rates than do any minority groups. However, when the effects of income and education are eliminated, black citizens vote at a higher rate than do white citizens.

7. Who to Vote For Mandate theory Rational-Choice Retrospective
2004—Iraq War
2012—health care
Rational-Choice
Retrospective
2004—tax cuts
Prospective
Deliberate ambiguity
Party Line
Democrats are more likely to cross over and vote Republican.
Policy voting leads to candidates being deliberately ambiguous with controversial issues, so as not to offend blocs of voters.
Many politicians believe that the winner of an election has a mandate from the people to carry out the policies he or she promised during the campaign.
Those who feel better off as a result of certain policies are likely to use retrospective voting and support candidates who pledge to continue those favored policies.

8. Factors Influencing Choice
Education
Income
Age
Gender
Religion
Race
People with higher levels of education are more likely to vote for Republicans. This trend reverses at PhD levels, however.
Voters in lower income brackets are more likely to support Democrats.
Younger voters are more likely to support Democratic candidates.
Women generally favor Democrats, while men generally favor Republicans.
Christians are more likely to favor Republicans, while Jews and Muslims are more likely to support Democrats.
The overwhelming majority of African Americans support Democratic candidates, and particularly the more liberal candidates within the party. The presidency of Franklin Roosevelt witnessed a major shift of black voters from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party.

9. Top 9 Reasons for Not Voting
Did not register
Dislike candidates
No reason
Sick
Uninterested in politics
New to the area
Away from home
Cannot leave job
Cannot get to the polls