1. Public Opinion

3. Definition Expression of attitudes concerning government and politics
Many “publics”
Influenced by political socialization and demography

4. How is public opinion measured?
Polls: person, PHONE, internet, mail
Concerns?
What are focus groups? Interactive group setting
Gallup poll (1932) – scientific method
Others: Pew Research, Zogbys, etc.

5. Polling in elections Tracking polls
Exit polls-only way we know how demographic groups voted since ballots are secret

6. Key poll terms to know Sample: representative of universe
Universe: group to be measured
Random sample: crucial to validity, equal probability of being selected
Accurate representation is key---quality not quantity
Sampling error: margin of error +/- 3 points is considered accurate

7. What are the pros of polling in public office?
More democratic
More efficient than waiting for next election
Political participation

8. What are the cons of polling?
Discourages bold leadership since candidate follows polls too much
Bandwagon effect among voters
Horserace coverage by media
Exit polls (most criticized)
Wording can get a specific result
Do you favor ending the war in the Middle East?
Do you favor ending the war in the Middle East no matter what the cost?
Undecided voters can affect poll results

9. How does polling affect policy?
Public opinion polls are a way to link the public with elected officials. Members of Congress often use polls to understand the views of their constituents, but they must also pay attention to other political considerations.
a. Identify two characteristics of a valid, scientific, public opinion poll.
b. Explain why each of the following enhances the influence of public opinion on the voting decisions of members of Congress.
Strong public opinion as expressed in polling results
Competitive re-elections
c. Explain why each of the following limits the influence of public opinion on the voting decisions of members of Congress.
Legislators’ voting records
Party leadership

10. How bad is it?
Voter Behavior

11. Political Efficacy
Belief that one can make a difference in politics by expressing an opinion and acting politically

12. Turnout Percentage of voting age public who actually vote See handout
2000 Census-97 million people DID NOT vote
General elections v. Off-year elections
Primaries and caucuses?

13. Factors that Influence Voting
Age: Younger demographics are less likely to vote
Education: College graduates are more likely to vote than less educated citizens
Religion: Jewish voters tend to vote Democratic; Protestant voters tend to be more conservative on economic issues
Location: Rural voters are more likely to support Republican candidates while urban voters are more likely to support Democratic candidates
Ethnicity: African Americans tend to support more liberal candidates within their party

14. Why do people not vote? Most common reason is APATHY
Political scientists give other reasons for non- voting that may contribute to apathy among American voters
Divided into 3 categories
Demographic
Psychological
Institutional

15. Demographic Reasons for Non-Voting
Sociological reasons
Income
Age
Educational level
Race or ethnicity
Religion
All contribute to a sense of no political efficacy

16. Psychological Reasons For Non-Voting
Candidate appeal
Issues
Weak Party identification
Party Identification (Partisanship)- #1 indicator of how a person will vote on election day
Voters have increasingly become more focused on individual candidates
Negative campaigning

17. Institutional Reasons for Non-Voting
Governmental reasons for non voting
Registration and residency requirements
Felons denied the right to vote
Large number of elections
Absentee process is too complicated
Ballots are too complex and long
Weekday voting
Citizenship requirement
Independents in closed primary states

18. Expansion of Voting
Even after amendments expanding voting rights past that of the original electorate, the majority of the current electorate does not vote in most elections
Which amendments expanded voting rights?
15th
19th
23rd
26th

19. Voting Rights Act of 1965
Major instrument for increasing the number of African Americans and other minority voters
What did the act do in addition to already established voting amendments?
Suspended literacy tests
Federal examiners to order registration where fewer than %50
Criminal penalties for interfering with the right to vote

20. Motor Voter Act (1990s)
Law requiring states and federal agencies to register voters (DMV, SSA)
Impact? Increase voter registration and remove barriers to voting

21. Help America Vote Act (2002)
Law to correct irregularities in the election of 2000
No punchcard machines, federal grants to improve voter education and poll worker training
Statewide voter registration system
Submit a state plan in order to receive funding
Impact? Decrease fraud, more accurate record of voting, transparency in the process

22. Current Voter Issues Identification requirements in Alabama
Politics in registration (registering where they sell hunting licenses in FL)
In areas with significant populations of linguistic minorities, voting materials must be made available in the preferred languages of the population
Continually declining turnout among young people

23. How do we change the trends?
Remove additional barriers
The “convenience factor”
Empowerment
Lack of motivation
Reluctance to confront more experienced citizens