Pearl River Coordination Meeting October 7, 2009 Dave Reed Hydrologist in Charge Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center.

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Presentation transcript:

Pearl River Coordination Meeting October 7, 2009 Dave Reed Hydrologist in Charge Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center

Today’s Talk NWS Hydrology Program NWS Hydrology Program Current Forecast Locations Current Forecast Locations Routine River Products Routine River Products Routine Precip Products Routine Precip Products Questions Questions

NWS Hydrology WFO Responsibilities Data collection Data collection Interacting with local officials and media Interacting with local officials and media Forecast dissemination Forecast dissemination Led by Service Hydrologist Led by Service Hydrologist

NWS Hydrology RFC Responsibilities NWS Hydrology RFC Responsibilities Precipitation estimates and forecasts merged into continuous dataset Precipitation dataset ingested into hydrologic model. Forecasters adjust model parameters in real time Provide River forecast to WFO and issue to public Staff of 15 to prepare forecasts

Current Forecast Locations Products prepared for each official forecast location Products prepared for each official forecast location –5-day forecast –Probabilistic forecasts of weekly chance of exceeding stage, flow, and cumulative flow –Probabilistic forecasts of chance of exceeding stage, flow, and cumulative flow for the next 90 days

Modeled Locations Simulate flows at all these locations Simulate flows at all these locations Additional locations help in preparing flood forecasts Additional locations help in preparing flood forecasts Not all sites have real-time data Not all sites have real-time data

5-Day Forecast Forecasts updated daily based on 7AM observations Forecasts updated daily based on 7AM observations Updates in the evening and when needed during significant events Updates in the evening and when needed during significant events Includes 12 hours of forecasted rainfall Includes 12 hours of forecasted rainfall

Weekly Chance of Exceedance Outlook for 90 days Outlook for 90 days Updated each Monday based on current soil moisture conditions Updated each Monday based on current soil moisture conditions Stages, flows and total volume Stages, flows and total volume

Statistics for 90-Day period Updated each Monday based on soil moisture conditions Updated each Monday based on soil moisture conditions Probability over next 90 days Probability over next 90 days Stage and flows Stage and flows

Precip Products Daily Images Daily and multi-day precip products updated daily Daily and multi-day precip products updated daily National image with capability to zoom to state or region National image with capability to zoom to state or region Data available for download in shape and netcdf files Data available for download in shape and netcdf files

Precip Products Hourly Images Hourly and multi-hour precip products updated each hour Hourly and multi-hour precip products updated each hour Regional image with capability to zoom to state or region Regional image with capability to zoom to state or region Data available for download in shape and netcdf files Data available for download in shape and netcdf files

Precip Products Forecasted Precip Forecast of rainfall for next 72 hours in 6-hour increments Forecast of rainfall for next 72 hours in 6-hour increments Updated every 6 hours at 7AM, 1PM, 7PM, and 1AM Updated every 6 hours at 7AM, 1PM, 7PM, and 1AM

RFC Products FOP Significant Flooding out to 5 days Significant Flooding out to 5 days Only includes moderate or greater flooding Only includes moderate or greater flooding

NWS GIS/KML Datasets GIS data portal for Shapefile and KML data sets for NWS and NOAA products. GIS data portal for Shapefile and KML data sets for NWS and NOAA products. gis/ gis/

Questions?