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Climate-Change Impacting Hydrologic Forecasting Reggina Cabrera NOAA/National Weather Service Eastern Region, Chief Hydrologic Services Division
River Forecast Centers
Routed Q MAP MAPX MAPXFMAP R/RO RRS UH Total Q Local Q RatingAdjust FORECAST H, Q ObservedForecast Forecast Process Precipitation Stages Observed
Challenge for Operational Hydrologists: Numerous groups looking at climate change effects and hydrologic forecasters are being asked for long-term forecasts Developing experimental products
Forecast and associated uncertainty
Forecast Evolution FROM: Short-term, deterministic, water-level forecast TO: Long-term, probabilistic, water- level and flow forecast (ESP)
Traces: Historical and Conditional
Probability of Exceedance
Communications and Dissemination of Information Wide use of Internet and GIS capabilities have a revolutionary impact on products and forecast services
Additional information for forecasters
SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN REGION Existing conditions Soil moisture Drought monitor Average daily stream flow Past rainfall Reservoir considerations Meteorological outlook –short and long term. Hydrologic Outlook
Using GFS Ensemble Members
Water Resources Outlook Individual Locations: 30-day 60-day 90-day Streamflows: 30-days 60-days 90-days
Diversity of users… o Emergency Managers o Agricultural Users o General Public o Water Managers Outreach and Education
Integrated Water Resources PrecipitationTemperatureSea-LevelWater levels Variables Models Water QualityRiver Flows Water QualityMeteorologicalHydrologicalOcean Multi-Agency Effort CHPS
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop
NOAA’s NWS and the USGS: Partnering to Meet America’s Water Information Needs Ernie Wells Hydrologic Services Division NOAA National Weather Service May.
Brian McInerney Hydrologist National Weather Service Hydrologic Outlook April 2006.
SIPR Dundee. © Crown copyright Scottish Flood Forecasting Service Pete Buchanan – Met Office Richard Maxey – SEPA SIPR, Dundee, 21 June 2011.
Andrew Benjamin University of Delaware. Goals: ◦ To investigate Drought Monitoring plans of states along the coastal plain. ◦ Review literature and.
Distributed Hydrologic Model-Threshold Frequency (DHM-TF) Reggina Cabrera NOAA/National Weather Service Eastern Region
Northwest River Forecast Center Seasonal Volume Outlook Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2012 Water Year Steve King, Sr. Hydrologist Northwest.
Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2008 Water Year Ray Fukunaga, Senior Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.
Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Alan Hamlet.
Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2007 Water Year Kevin Berghoff, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.
Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2006 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.
Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2007 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.
Mid-Range Streamflow Forecasts for Water Supply Management in the Puget Sound Region Matthew Wiley Richard Palmer October 26, 2005.
Hydrologic Outlook for the Pacific Northwest in Water Year 2008 Andy Wood Xiaodong Zeng and George Thomas Alan Hamlet and Dennis Lettenmaier Dept. of Civil.
NOAA’s NWS and the USGS: Partnering to Meet America’s Water Information Needs Dr. Thomas Graziano Acting Chief, Hydrologic Services Division Office of.
Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2008 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.
NWS ~ NorthWest River Forecast Center Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2006 Water Year Kevin Berghoff, Hydrologist.
Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil Engineering University of Washington September,
June 23, 2011 Kevin Werner NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center 1 NOAA / CBRFC Water forecasts and data in support of western water management.
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