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CNRFC Operational Flood Forecasting Pete Fickenscher Hydrologist California-Nevada River Forecast Center National Weather Service October 18, 2006.

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Presentation on theme: "CNRFC Operational Flood Forecasting Pete Fickenscher Hydrologist California-Nevada River Forecast Center National Weather Service October 18, 2006."— Presentation transcript:

1 CNRFC Operational Flood Forecasting Pete Fickenscher Hydrologist California-Nevada River Forecast Center National Weather Service October 18, 2006

2 CNRFC Operations 11 Weather offices 11 Weather offices 220 Basins modeled 220 Basins modeled 87 Flood Forecast Points 87 Flood Forecast Points Partners: Calif. DWR Partners: Calif. DWR Season: Oct. 15 – Apr. 15 Season: Oct. 15 – Apr. 15 50 Reservoir Inflow Points 50 Reservoir Inflow Points Partners: COE & BUREC Partners: COE & BUREC Season: year-round Season: year-round 50 Water Supply Points 50 Water Supply Points Season: Jan.1 – Jul. 1 Season: Jan.1 – Jul. 1

3 CNRFC Staff Hydrologist in Charge (HIC) Hydrologist in Charge (HIC) Development and Operations Hydrologist (DOH) Development and Operations Hydrologist (DOH) 4 Senior Hydrologists 4 Senior Hydrologists 3 Hydrologists 3 Hydrologists 1 Senior HAS Forecasters 1 Senior HAS Forecasters 2 HAS Forecasters 2 HAS Forecasters Administrative Assistant Administrative Assistant

4 CNRFC Hydrologic Products Flash Flood Guidance Flood Forecast Guidance Reservoir Inflow Forecasts Spring Snow Melt Forecasts Water Supply Volume Short Range … … … … … … Long Range

5 Flood Forecasting Operations QPFRiver Forecasts

6 Operational Hydrologic Models NWSRFS Structure ESP Operational Forecast System Calibration System

7 Primary NWSRFS Models Rain-Snow Elevation Rain-Snow Elevation Snow-17 Snow-17 Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) Unit Hydrograph Unit Hydrograph Reservoir Models Reservoir Models River Routing Models River Routing Models

8 NWSRFS Models Rain-Snow Elevation Snowfall Rainfall

9 NWSRFS Models SNOW-17 Conceptual Model of Physical Processes Conceptual Model of Physical Processes Models a Column of Snow Models a Column of Snow - Accumulation of Snow Cover - Surface Energy Exchange - Snow Cover ‘Ripening’ - Ground Heat Exchange - Transmission of Liquid Water Input = Air Temperature & Precip. Input = Air Temperature & Precip. Output = Rain + Melt, SWE, & Areal Extent of Snow Output = Rain + Melt, SWE, & Areal Extent of Snow

10 NWSRFS Models SNOW-17 WY 1986 SJ River

11 NWSRFS Models SAC-SMA Conceptual Model of the Land Phase of the Hydrologic Cycle Conceptual Model of the Land Phase of the Hydrologic Cycle Input = Rain + Melt, Evapotranspiration, Areal Snow Cover Input = Rain + Melt, Evapotranspiration, Areal Snow Cover Output = Inflow to the channel system Output = Inflow to the channel system

12 SAC-SMA

13 NWSRFS Models SAC-SMA WY 1986 SJ River

14 NWSRFS Models Actual Inflow (FOLC1) Observed (w): hourly data Simulated (p): 6-hourly (with reservoir outflows)

15 NWSRFS Models River Routing Example

16 NWSRFS Models Reservoir Model Example (Yolo Bypass)

17 NWSRFS Models Tidal Example (Rio Vista)

18 Operational Hydrologic Models NWSRFS Structure ESP Operational Forecast System Calibration System

19 Operational Flood Forecasting HAS DataSystems precip / temp / flow RiverForecastSystem QPF Forecast Temp Hydrologist Soil, snow & routing parameters hydrologic expertise River Forecast Guidance Rain/Snow Elevations Model Calibration

20 Operational Flood Forecasting DataSystems Hydrologist River Forecast Guidance Model Calibration

21 Precipitation Data Quality Control

22 Gage Catch Issues Wind Wind Snow Snow Instrumentation (double tipping) Instrumentation (double tipping) Gage location (vegetation, topography…) Gage location (vegetation, topography…) Vandalism Vandalism

23 River and Reservoir Data QC Reservoir Inflow Outflow and Storage Hourly Stage & Streamflow Anticipated Reservoir Outflow Automated Filtering & Manual QC

24 Real-time Forecasting Observed Data Simulated Flow NF American River

25 Folsom Inflow Real-time Forecasting

26 Simulated Flow Observed Flow Data San Joaquin River at Newman

27 Operational Flood Forecasting

28 DataSystems Hydrologist River Forecast Guidance Model Calibration

29 Interactive Forecast Program River Model

30 IFP Runtime Modifications

31 Operational Flood Forecasting HAS DataSystems precip / temp / flow RiverForecastSystem QPF Forecast Temp Hydrologist hydrologic expertise Model Calibration Rain/Snow Elevations Graphical RVF Soil, snow & routing parameters

32 Graphical River Forecast Guidance Merced River - Pohono Bridge

33 Graphical RVF Availability 87 official flood forecast points. 87 official flood forecast points. Routine updates. Routine updates. twice per day. twice per day. morning/afternoon. morning/afternoon. Updates during floods. Updates during floods. 8am/2pm/8pm/2am. 8am/2pm/8pm/2am. as needed. as needed. Visible to everyone. Visible to everyone.

34 Graphical River Forecast Guidance Benefits Visual image of meteorological and hydrological situation. Visual image of meteorological and hydrological situation. More information is presented than in a text product. More information is presented than in a text product. Longer range guidance for emergency managers. Longer range guidance for emergency managers.

35 Forecast Value Accuracy Timeliness Forecasting Balancing Timeliness and Accuracy Forecast Lead Time

36 Graphical River Forecast Guidance Guidance period information has higher uncertainty. Guidance period information has higher uncertainty.  Timing and amount of rainfall forecast.  Rain/snow level forecast.  Unanticipated reservoir regulation will affect downstream forecasts and guidance.

37 New Website Graphical RVF http://www.cnrfc.noaa. gov/

38 New Website Other River Guidance http://www.cnrfc.noaa. gov/

39 Review of 2006 Flood Event Folsom Inflow Forecasts Graphs

40 Operational Hydrologic Models NWSRFS Structure ESP Operational Forecast System Calibration System

41 ESP Products Reservoir inflows Reservoir inflows Unregulated rivers Unregulated rivers Extended forecasts Extended forecasts

42 AHPS – Relevant Products CNRFC implemented AHPS locations CNRFC implemented AHPS locations Started in WY2005 on 70 points Started in WY2005 on 70 points ESP Custom Product Generation

43 ESP Traces

44 AHPS – Relevant Products ESP Custom Product Generation

45 CNRFC Development Areas Flood Forecasting Flood Forecasting Dam Break Support Dam Break Support Flash Flood Support Flash Flood Support Water Supply Forecasting Water Supply Forecasting Hourly Hydrologic Modeling Hourly Hydrologic Modeling Website Website http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/

46 California-Nevada River Forecast Center Thank You

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