1. Course Introduction: Overview of Water Supply Forecasting Practices Kevin Werner, CBRFC

2. Outline Overview of the day Introductions Overview of forecast process

3. Course Goals Description of current and future water supply forecast techniques Interactive discussions on decision making under uncertainty Multi-directional discussions are important to improve forecast and decision making paradigms

4. Course Agenda Course materials: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/shortcourse/agenda.htm

5. Introductions Name What you do What you want from this course

6. Water Supply Forecast Overview SWS (Statistical Prediction) ESP (Hydrologic Model Prediction) (River Forecast Centers) VIPER (Statistical Prediction) (Water and Climate Center) Forecast Coordination Official Coordinated Forecast Water Managers and Users Other Inputs. Decisions

7. Forecast Methods Statistical Forecasting Statistical Regression Equations Primary NOAA/RFC forecast method from 1940s to mid 1990s. Primary NRCS/NWCC forecast method Historical Relationships between flow, snow, & precipitation (1971-2000+) Tied to a fixed runoff period (inflexible) Ensemble Simulation Model Forecasting A component of a continuous conceptual model (NWSRFS) Continuous real time inputs (temperature, precipitation, forecasts) Accounts for soil moisture states (SAC-SMA) - drives runoff efficiency Builds and melts snowpack (Snow-17) – output feeds SAC-SMA Flexible run date, forecast period, forecast parameters. Evolving toward ESP as primary forecast tool at NOAA/RFCs

8. 8 Statistical 50% exceedance Forecast: 222 kac-ft

9. 9 Ensemble 50% exceedance Forecast: 230 kac-ft

10. Forecast Coordination Forecasts are coordinated with NRCS on a monthly basis. Forecasters at each agency compare forecasts, analyze differences, and come up with a official, coordinated forecast. 10 NRCS Preferred Forecast: 235 kac-ft NOAA Preferred Forecast: 225 kac-ft Coordinated Forecast: 230 kac-ft

11. Water Supply Forecast Overview SWS (Statistical Prediction): 222 KAF ESP (Hydrologic Model Prediction) : 230 KAF (River Forecast Centers) VIPER (Statistical Prediction) : 236 KAF (Water and Climate Center) Forecast Coordination NOAA: 225 KAF NRCS: 236 KAF Official Coordinated Forecast: 230 KAF Water Managers and Users Other Inputs. Decisions

12. NWS Western Water Supply / Water Resources Outlook 2008 (version 2) 2009 (version 3) 2010 (version 4): wateroutlook.nwrfc.noaa.gov

13. Water Supply Forecasts in Western USANational Water Resources Outlook Map Forecast Overview Forecast Evolution – display of forecast and observed streamflow progression Ensemble Forecast – display tool for monthly ESP forecasts Verification – Many, many verification plots and graphics Climate variability – Streamflow / climate index relationship plot Map Forecast Overview Ensemble Forecast – display tool for monthly ESP forecasts

14. New Paradigms? SWSESP Forecaster User NRCS ESP & HEFS Forecaster User NRCS VIPER

15. Todays Short Course SWS (Statistical Prediction) ESP (Hydrologic Model Prediction) (River Forecast Centers) VIPER (Statistical Prediction) (Water and Climate Center) Forecast Coordination Official Coordinated Forecast Water Managers and Users Other Inputs. Decisions Statistical Water Supply Prediction: Dave Garen and Gus Goodbody, NRCS 2 hours

16. Todays Short Course SWS (Statistical Prediction) ESP (Hydrologic Model Prediction) (River Forecast Centers) VIPER (Statistical Prediction) (Water and Climate Center) Forecast Coordination Official Coordinated Forecast Water Managers and Users Other Inputs. Decisions Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Introduction: Kevin Berghoff, NWRFC Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System and Forecast Verification advances: James Brown, NWS/OHD Hands on ESP and verification exercises: Kevin Werner, CBRFC Kristen Averyt, WWA

17. Todays Short Course SWS (Statistical Prediction) ESP (Simulation Model Prediction) (River Forecast Centers) VIPER (Statistical Prediction) (Water and Climate Center) Forecast Coordination Official Coordinated Forecast Water Managers and Users Other Inputs. Decisions Intro to Risk Based Decision Making: BPA Case Study Travis Togo, BPA Scenario Exercises for Risk Based Decision Making Kevin Werner, CBRFC Kristen Averyt, WWA

18. Todays Short Course SWS (Statistical Prediction) ESP (Hydrologic Model Prediction) (River Forecast Centers) VIPER (Statistical Prediction) (Water and Climate Center) Forecast Coordination Official Coordinated Forecast Water Managers and Users Other Inputs. Decisions Water Supply Forecasting and Climate Change Levi Brekke, USBR

19. Course Goals Description of current and future water supply forecast techniques Interactive discussions on decision making under uncertainty Multi-directional discussions are important to improve forecast and decision making paradigms

20. Questions?