Presentation on theme: "Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop"— Presentation transcript:
1 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop Jim NoelSenior HydrologistNOAA/ National Weather ServiceOhio River Forecast CenterMarch 4, 2008
2 Outline History of Flood Outlooks Why change now? Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)Climate Forecasts within ESPExperimental Water Resources OutlooksExpansion of Climate Products – ExamplesSummary
3 History Subjective in nature Only produced in flood season Based on series of text productsSubjective in natureOnly produced in floodseasonNot a continuous waterwatch for high and lowflowsFrom Hydrologic Information Center – April 14, 2006
4 Why Change Now? Need for continuous water watch Need to collaborate with our partners moreTechnology advances allow us to provide more useful informationInnovate or dissipate
5 Ensemble Streamflow Prediction River Forecast Centers capture soil moisture usingSAC-SMA (Sacramento) hydrologic soil moisture accounting model and capture snow using SNOW-17 modelGood estimations of soil moisture and snow pack water contents are critical to accurate hydrology (RFCs) and meteorology and climate (NCEP) forecasts.To get good soil moisture estimations requires good precipitation inputsTwo main zones, an upper and lower
6 Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Manual Calibration Program (MCP)Operational Forecast System (OFS)Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)MCPESPOFS
7 Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) necessary component used to take short range deterministic SAC-SMA model into short term climate predictions of riversSimilar in concept to the ensembling approach used for atmospheric modelingRFC NWSRFS/ESP/ProbabilisticThe continuous models feed short term deterministic and longer term probabilistic forecast to the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
10 Climate Forecasts Within ESP Pre Adjustment TechniqueWeight/Modify on Input Side7172737475Post Adjustment TechniqueWeight On Output SideWe can use the pre-adjust technique by modifying the traces based on CPC outlooks before running each trace. The conditional trace versus historical trace.We can also generate all the historical traces and then weight certain years based on things such as ENSO, the post adjust technique.
11 Climate Forecasts Within ESP HistoricalMAT and MAPAdjustmentSystemAdjusted HistoricalMAP and MATWeather ForecastsClimate ForecastsThis is the pre adjust technique where we generate each historical trace and then modify based on HPC 5 day QPF and CPC 30 and 90 day temperature and precipitation outlooks
12 Climate Forecasts Within ESP Long range seasonal water supplySpring snowmelt volume forecastsSpring snowmelt peaksMinimum flows for navigation, irrigation, environmental, recreation, etcWater Resources Outlooks
13 Climate Forecasts within ESP 90-day probability of exceedanceBlue line is an historical simulation based on climatologyBlack line is the conditional simulation with CPC inputsConditional simulation based on CPC inputs yield lower potential for flooding and high flows.This is the result of ESP for AHPS that the NWS currently uses. This is the 90-day probability of exceedance. The historical simulation is in blue. I think of this as the current states plus normal conditions.The black line is the conditional simulation with CPC outlooks. CPC outlooks made this 90-day outlook drier at the high end and wetter at the lower end.
14 Water Resources Outlooks Uses NWSRFS SAC-SMA and ESPUses HPC/CPC OutlooksCan generate a whole host of productsAn experimental product of NOAA/NWSBeing develop for the 30 to 90 day periodA new continuous water watch product is in development. It is the WRO product for the Ohio Valley by OHRFC using ESP. SERFC is also working on WRO stuff.
15 Water Resources Outlooks Partner with USGS/USACEUtilize USGS streamflow percentilesVerify product based onUSGS 28-day mean flowsExperimental has ended, waiting for operational approvalGOAL: Slowly expand nationwide
16 Water Resources Outlooks Based on basins and point forecasts159 of 266 OHRFC points have 30, 60 and 90 day expected streamflows20 more USGS points could be used but incomplete data
17 Water Resources Outlooks 30-day VerificationAugust 2006 through January 2008POD above normal flows = 0.78FAR above normal flows = 0.30POD below normal flows = 0.65FAR below normal flows = 0.09Percent of forecast basins in correct category = 78%
18 Water Resources Outlook Other ApproachesUse analog years (year weighting technique in ESP (Post-Adjustment) based on atmospheric and oceanic response (ENSO/NAO etc)Run ESP with CPC outlooks and analog years approachResearch on this is being done by OHRFC and hopefully Michigan Tech
19 Expansion of Climate Products - Examples Probability of reaching flood stageUses NWSRFS SAC-SMA and ESPGenerated at NCRFC for minor, moderate and major floodingAn experimental product of NOAA/NWSBeing expanded at other RFCsA new continuous water watch product is in development. It is the WRO product for the Ohio Valley by OHRFC using ESP. SERFC is also working on WRO stuff.
20 Expansion of Climate Products - Examples Link WRO for each of our points to probability function imagesAllow customers to drill down into the WRO furtherAllow customers to modify risks based on ENSO as a starting pointThis work is being driven by NWS Western RegionA new continuous water watch product is in development. It is the WRO product for the Ohio Valley by OHRFC using ESP. SERFC is also working on WRO stuff.
21 SummaryTechnology (ESP) has advanced to allow subjective text based flood outlooks to be replaced by a more objective based water resources outlookClimate forecasts are integrated into hydrologic forecasts mostly through adjustments to the inputs in the Ensemble Streamflow PredictionWater Resources Outlooks would provide a continuous water watch for streamflows in the 1-90 day period for expected flowsWater Resources Outlooks would not only be for high flows but ALL flows
22 Summary Streamflow categories are based on USGS percentile categories Verification is based on USGS dataDesigned to promote NWS/USGS/COE and help us and other partners and customers in their missions!The climate products can be used in providing necessary information on flood and drought potential during the coming months.