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Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2006 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.

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Presentation on theme: "Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2006 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center."— Presentation transcript:

1 Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2006 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center

2 NOAA NWS ~ N ORTH W EST R IVER F ORECAST C ENTER Topics for Presentation  Northwest River Forecast Center:  Overview and Definitions  NWRFC Long Range Forecasting Models and Products  Statistical Water Supply Forecasts  Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)  Recap of WY 2005 Forecasts  2006 Volumetric Streamflow Outlook

3 NOAA NWS ~ N ORTH W EST R IVER F ORECAST C ENTER Northwest River Forecast Center Total Area: 315,795 Grand Coulee Dam The Willamette at Salem The Dalles Dam Lower Granite Dam Columbia and Snake River Basins Coastal Drainages of Oregon and Washington 6 States & CANADA Support for 9 NWS Field Offices (WFOs)

4 The NWRFC issues several flavors of longterm volumetric forecasts:  Observed Flow  Natural Flow  Adjusted Flow

5 Natural Outflow Inflow Observed Outflow Storage #1 Storage #2 Diversion Observed vs Natural Flow Conservation of Mass: Inflow – Outflow = Change in Storage Natural Flow = Outflow + Diversion + Return Flow + Consumptive Use + Evaporation Loss + Channel Loss + Change in Storage

6 Adjusted Flow = Outflow + Major Diversions + Major Change in Upstream Storage **Forecast Outflow requires forecasted project releases and target pool elevations Inflow Observed Outflow Storage #1 Storage #2 Diversion Adjusted Flow (may or may not be Natural)

7 Grand Coulee Dam The Willamette at Salem The Dalles Dam Corps of Engineers Bureau of Reclamation Others Adjusted Runoff Volume COLUMBIA RIVER AT GRAND COULEE = + Change in Lake Storage at: MICA DAM REVELSTOKE DAM NAKUSP ARROW LAKE LIBBY DAM DUNCAN DAM KOOTENAY LAKE HUNGRY HORSE DAM KERR DAM PEND OREILLE LAKE PRIEST NOXON RAPIDS DAM COEUR D' ALENE LAKE LONGLAKE GRAND COULEE DAM + Runoff Volume FEEDER CANAL AT BANKS COLUMBIA RIVER AT GRAND COULEE

8 Grand Coulee Dam The Willamette at Salem The Dalles Dam Corps of Engineers Bureau of Reclamation Others Adjusted Runoff Volume COLUMBIA RIVER AT THE DALLES = + Change in Lake Storage at: MICA DAM REVELSTOKE DAM NAKUSP ARROW LAKE LIBBY DAM DUNCAN DAM KOOTENAY LAKE HUNGRY HORSE DAM KERR DAM PEND OREILLE LAKE PRIEST NOXON RAPIDS DAM COEUR D' ALENE LAKE LONGLAKE GRAND COULEE DAM LAKE CHELAN BROWNLEE DAM DWORSHAK DAM JOHN DAY RESERVOIR + Runoff Volume FEEDER CANAL AT BANKS COLUMBIA AT THE DALLES

9 NOAA NWS ~ N ORTH W EST R IVER F ORECAST C ENTER NWRFC Forecasting Models  Statistical Water Supply  Seasonal Forecasts  Regression techniques  Adjusted Flow Volumes  NWS River Forecast System  Short, Medium, and Longterm capabilities  Generates output in deterministic AND probabilistic (ESP) formats  2 Outputs for ESP  Adjusted Flow: similar to regression-based Water Supply (147 points)  Natural Streamflow (302 NWSRFS forecast points)

10 NOAA NWS ~ N ORTH W EST R IVER F ORECAST C ENTER Statistical Water Supply Forecasting: Time Domain Time Flow

11 NOAA NWS ~ N ORTH W EST R IVER F ORECAST C ENTER Statistical Water Suppy Combined Index: Observed Precip Observed Snow Observed Runoff Future Precip

12 NOAA NWS ~ N ORTH W EST R IVER F ORECAST C ENTER Water Supply Forecasts Products:  Issued 3 times per month  Mid December – July Content:  Agency Coordinated Forecasts (147 Points)  Contingency Plots (future precip 50%, 75%, 125% of normal) Issued according to schedule posted on NWRFC website: www.nwrfc.noaa.gov

13 NOAA NWS ~ N ORTH W EST R IVER F ORECAST C ENTER Statistical Water Supply Product Jan-Jul Volume 2005 Forecast Jan-Jul Volume 30 yr Normal 2005 Jan-Jul Cumulative ObsVolume 81.39 MAF – 76%

14 NOAA NWS ~ N ORTH W EST R IVER F ORECAST C ENTER Snow Model Soil Moisture/Runoff Consumptive Use River Routing Reservoir Regulation Flow and Stage Forecasts NWS River Forecast System Model Components (simplified) Rain Plus Snow Melt

15 NOAA NWS ~ N ORTH W EST R IVER F ORECAST C ENTER NWS River Forecast System Forecast Domains Time Flow

16 NOAA NWS ~ N ORTH W EST R IVER F ORECAST C ENTER Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) Forecast technique combining NWS hydrology model with historical precip and temperature record Each trace represents combination of current model states with a historical climatic condition Ensemble output “traces” depict range of possible flow conditions Traces can be analyzed using statistics to produce probabilistic forecasts

17 NOAA NWS ~ N ORTH W EST R IVER F ORECAST C ENTER Exceedance probability plot of flow volumes = area under each trace (Jan-Jul period) 50% Value (most expected) is comparable to WS forecasts Example showing 42 traces outcomes for The Columbia River at The Dalles, OR Traces represent ensemble of possible river flow behavior (Jan-Jul) Median Forecast (most expected)

18 NOAA NWS ~ N ORTH W EST R IVER F ORECAST C ENTER ESP Volume Forecasts Statistical Water Supply ESP Volume Forecasts

19 NOAA NWS ~ N ORTH W EST R IVER F ORECAST C ENTER ESP Spring Outlook  Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)  Adjusted Volume Forecasts Issued for Statistical Water Supply Points (147)  Natural Volume Forecast for all NWSRFS Points (302)  Updated weekly  Driven by Antecedent Snow/Soil Moisture, 10 day Precip and Temperature Forecast  Soon to incorporate climate forecasts

20 NOAA NWS ~ N ORTH W EST R IVER F ORECAST C ENTER ESP Sensitivity Study: Summer/Fall Soil Moisture NWSRFS has a memory for soil moisture that extends many weeks into the future This memory can be exploited for the purpose of producing spring outlooks

21 NOAA NWS ~ N ORTH W EST R IVER F ORECAST C ENTER 2005 Volumetric Forecasts ESP Compared to Water Supply (Jan-Jul ‘05)

22 ESP Natural Stream Flow Apr-Sep 2006 Issued Oct 25, 2005

23 Water Supply Inputs ESP Natural Streamflow Forecasts

24 2006 Outlook ESP Adjusted Forecasts (comparable to WS) 100% of Normal (63 MAF) 91% of Normal (107 MAF) 93% of Normal (30 MAF)

25 NOAA NWS ~ N ORTH W EST R IVER F ORECAST C ENTER  ESP Pre Adjustment Technique:  CPC Outlooks are used to shift distribution of model inputs (temp and precip) Taking Advantage of Climate Forecasts:

26 NOAA NWS ~ N ORTH W EST R IVER F ORECAST C ENTER  ESP Post Adjustment Technique:  Yearly Weights applied to ESP traces  Used to include/exclude historical years Taking Advantage of Climate Forecasts: 77 39 89 96 97 01 83

27 Northwest River Forecast Center www.nwrfc.noaa.gov

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