MOPITT and MOZART for Flight Planning and Analysis of INTEX-B Louisa Emmons Peter Hess, Avelino Arellano, Gabriele Pfister, Jean-François Lamarque, David Edwards ACD, ESSL, NCAR

MOPITT-MOZART Forecasting The ACD satellite and modeling groups developed a unique tool for predicting pollution plumes: The assimilation of near-real-time MOPITT carbon monoxide data into the MOZART chemical transport model along with near-real-time biomass burning emissions MODIS fire counts MOZART Forecast MOPITT CO Apr 20-22, 2006 Apr 11-20, 2006

Near-Real-Time MOPITT CO Retrievals Received expedited data within a few hours of overpass for region of interest Full globe processed within 1 day in ‘Rapid Response’ mode (Debbie Mao) Plots automatically posted on MOPITT website: Operational retrievals are archived at NASA LaRC DAAC

Fire Emissions During campaign: Christine Wiedinmyer’s fire emissions model NRT MODIS fire counts (Terra) Post-campaign GFED-v2 [van der Werf, Randerson et al.] emissions scaled by MODIS CMG 8-day fire counts Significant differences between Terra and Aqua and NRT and Final fire counts

MOPITT assimilation and MOZART forecasts For each day of MIRAGE and INTEX-B: MOZART with assimilation of MOPITT CO and full chemistry (2.8  x2.8  ) run for past 3 days CO forecasts initialized from assimilation Forecast CO and tags run at 0.7  x0.7  for 3 days

MOZART Forecast CO interpolated to flight track compared to preliminary data from DACOM* MOZART Forecast CO along flight track (Fx initialized UTC) * Data from Glen Sachse, NASA Langley Forecast Evaluation - May 4 - DC8

Assimilation - May 1 Timing and location of plume sampled by C-130 near Seattle missed without assimilation CO With Assimilation CO Without Assimilation MOPITT CO Column

OBS WITH MOPITT ASSIM (R=0.72) W/O MOPITT ASSIM (R=0.63) Assimilation in CAM-Chem Poster: A. Arellano Ensemble-based assimilation of U,V, T and MOPITT CO in the Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry Extended Kalman Filter Assimilation in MOZART: R w/o Assim with Assim C DC Assimilation clearly improves CO structure CO [ppbv] DC-8 Flights 4/17 - 5/1 C-130 Flights 4/17 - 5/1 1-Minute Flight Points OBS WITH MOPITT ASSIM (R=0.69) W/O MOPITT ASSIM (R=0.62) Obs from Glen Sachse Obs from Teresa Campos

MOPITT Validation Very few spirals were performed coincident with Terra overpasses, but many along-track profiles were roughly coincident Within 200 km and 13 hours: DC-8: 11 C-130: 16 As seen previously, MOPITT shows a positive bias compared to in situ observations The MOPITT team continues to investigate the cause of the bias (instrument, a priori, retrievals, etc.) and hopes to reduce it in the next retrieval version Colored points: NOAA/GCD network profiles (P. Novelli) C130: Teresa Campos, NCAR DC8: Glen Sachse, NASA Langley

MIRAGE and INTEX-B Analysis New MOZART simulations being run –Fire emissions with processed MODIS fire counts, scaling GFED-v2 [van der Werf et al., 2006] –Meteorological fields from NCEP/ GFS analyses (not forecasts) –Operational MOPITT data for assimilation –Full chemistry and CO tag simulations at 1.4  x 1.4  (T85) MOZART results along flight tracks have been archived Model evaluation is on-going E. Apel NCAR CH 3 CHO [pptv] C130 F.Flocke NCAR PAN [pptv] C130 P. Weibring NCAR C130 CH 2 O [pptv] C130 O3 [ppbv] T.Campos NCAR DC8 O3 [ppbv] M.Avery NASA MOZART

MOZART CO and Ozone Tags CO emissions from different regions and sources have been tagged to identify different source contributions to the observations Asian NO emissions have been tagged to give the contribution to the ozone distribution from Asia Poster: G. Pfister

MOPITT CO Interannual variability 2006 appears to have an average amount of CO over the Pacific during April-May Poster: G. Pfister

On-going Work Interannual variability of Asian pollution transport and context for INTEX-B (poster: G. Pfister) Evaluation of MOZART/MOPITT forecasting system Ensemble-based assimilation of MOPITT in CAM (poster: A. Arellano) Inverse modeling of N. Hemisphere CO VOC budget analyses with MOZART