1. 27-28/10/2005IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop Inverse Modeling of CO Emissions Results for Biomass Burning Gabrielle Pétron National Center for Atmospheric Research gap@ucar.edu Multi-year inversion of CO sources using MOPITT data Land clearing fires in the Kalimantan region of the island of Borneo, Indonesia NASA photo, 09/18/91

2. 27-28/10/2005IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop Role of CO in the troposphere  Oxidation capacity of the atmosphere  Precursor of tropospheric ozone  Indoor and urban pollutant Houston Santiago http://eces.org/archive/gallery/airgfx NOx CO 2 + HO 2 COV CO NOx + NO CO + OH + O 2  O3O3 +UV NO 2

3. 27-28/10/2005IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop CO emissions  Known : nature of sources  combustion of C matter, chemical production...  Uncertain : sources quite variable (x,t)  intensities  location  timing, seasonality, interannual variations  splitting : fossil fuel/biofuel....  Tools to study CO budget:  emissions inventories  observations  models

4. 27-28/10/2005IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop Sources & Sinks of CO  Fossil fuel : 300-600 Biomass burning: 300-900 (forests, savannas, agric. waste burning, fuel wood use)  Vegetation : 50-200  Oceans : 6- 30  Methane oxidation : 400-1000  HCNM oxidation : 300-1000 TOTAL Source = 1400 – 3700 TgCO/yr  Photochemical sink : 1400-2600  Surface deposition: 150-500 TOTAL Sink = 1550 – 3100 TgCO/yr TgCO/yr

5. 27-28/10/2005IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop Tools to study CO budget  Observations  local,regional,global  in situ/remote sensing  continuous, campaign  Models  city-scale,regional,global  transport/chemistry (on/offline)

6. 27-28/10/2005IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop Monitoring of CO NOAA/CMDL network of surface stations MOPITT CO retrievals (500 hPa) Example of averaging kernel A (7,7)

7. 27-28/10/2005IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop Chemistry-Transport Model Discrete numerical representation of the troposphere (x,t) :  chemistry operator :  transport operator : advection, turbulence, turbulent diffusion & convection  initial & boundary conditions : monthly emissions, deposition, exchanges with the stratosphere  resolution :  x ~ 200/500km,  t ~ 20min/1 h  model with climatological met fields  model with analyzed met fields  global circulation model (on line transport)

8. 27-28/10/2005IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop Tagged CO simulation  Useful tool to track CO origin and the long-range transportof pollution day 2day 65

9. 27-28/10/2005IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop July 2000 Total column of CO : MOZART2 (top) and MOPITT (bottom) underestimation of biomass burning emissions

10. 27-28/10/2005IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop Motivations for Inverse Modeling and Data Assimilation  Quality and expansion of the Observing Systems  surface stations networks  remote sensing  intensive regional campaign  Progress in Modeling  computation capacity  representativeness of complex CTMs o improved parameterizations –chemistry (more species, trace gases and particles) –transport (esp. analyzed meteorological fields)

11. 27-28/10/2005IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop MOPITT/MOZART CO at 850 hPa Phase 1 : April 2000 to April 2001 Phase 2 : September 2001 to December 2003 A priori biomass burning (WF) monthly emissions in MOZART: scaling of MODIS fire counts

12. 27-28/10/2005IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop Multi-year CO inversion MOZART CTM MOPITT satellite data April 2000-December 2003 A Priori Emission Inventory Atmospheric CTM MOPITT Observed CO Optimized Emission Inventory INVERSE MODELING MOZART Modeled CO POET CO emissions + a priori WFOptimized CO emissions Figure 2Figure 3 The discrepancies between the observed and the modeled CO distributions can be used to optimize poorly known parameters of the model – here, CO anthropogenic emissions. 1 2 3 4

13. 27-28/10/2005IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop CO FF BF WF optimized emissions for four latitudinal bands Fossil Fuel UseBiofuel Use Wildland Fires

14. 27-28/10/2005IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop CO WF Emissions inversion results a priori inventory based on MODIS fire counts North Asia: high emissions in 2002 and 2003 South East Asia: high emissions in 2003

15. 27-28/10/2005IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop CO WF emissions in boreal regions van der Werf (MODIS fc, CASA model,...) Ito and Penner (GBA 2000,...): artifact ~no fire detection at high latitude fire counts: sampling bias < polar orbit satellite only sees a fraction of the fires yet useful to detect fires in dense tropical forest burnt area: integrated fire activity over 10 days problem for both approaches: what is the fraction of pixel burnt emission factors: “large” uncertainties (flaming/smoldering,...)

16. 27-28/10/2005IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop CO WF emissions in Africa no inversion: January to March 2000 & May to Aug 2001  >0 o : fairly good a priori emissions  0-10 o S: emissions do not decrease as fast as fire counts regional total  < 10 o S : clear a priori under-estimation

17. 27-28/10/2005IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop Conclusions  Inversion results:  Results quite robust/ inversion parameters (paper to be submitted)  WF emissions are not proportional to fire counts  Emission Modeling:  Intercomparison with WF top-down inventories  assess parameterization  Emission Inference:  Requires to use several fire products AND chemical data