1. CLARIS WP4.3 : Continental-scale air Pollution in South America

2. CLARIS WP4.3: Continental-scale air pollution by South American mega cities Guy Brasseur (MPI) and Carlos Nobre (INPE) (CNRS, INPE, UCH, MPI) k Cooperation between South American and European scientists to assess: k Impact of mega cities on air quality at the sub-continental scale (ex: Sao Paulo and Santiago) k Impact of land-use changes on air quality at the local and regional scale k Relative effects of anthropogenic versus biogenic emissions on atmospheric oxidants and aerosol abundances at the continental scale k Regional climate forcing resulting from changes in aerosols and tropospheric ozone concentrations in the past and in the future

3. Nesting of Regional Models in Global Chemical-Transport Models Regional Chemical Transport Models covering the South American continent with high resolution local spots in urban areas should be coupled to a global Chemical Transport Model (MOZART) and run with assimilated wind fields and observed lightning and biomass burning emissions

4. Notrogen Oxide (pptv) May, 2003

5. High Troposphere and Long Range Transport of CO 250mbar INPE-CPTEC

6. Ozone Change 2000-2100 A2

7. Surface annual average of present-day CO and NO x anthropogenic emissions in 10 9 molec.cm -2.s -1. Present-day Surface Emissions CO NOx

8. Yearly surface average of anthropogenic emissions of CO (right) and NO x (left). Absolute differences between 1890 and 2000 (top), and between 2000 et 2100 (bottom) in 10 9 molec.cm -2.s –1. 1890-2000 2000-2100 A2 scenario NOx CO Emissions

9. 1890 2000 2100 Jan July CO Mixing Ratio (ppbv) A2

10. NOx Mixing Ratio (pptv) Jan July 1890 2000 2100 A2

11. JanuaryJuly 2000 Surface Ozone (ppbv)

12. Challenges for the Future CLIMATE (Gas-phase) CHEMISTRY ECOSYSTEMS AEROSOLSGREENHOUSE GASES Greenhouse Effect CO 2 Direct and Indirect Effects / Feedbacks on natural sources CH 4, O 3, N 2 O, CFC Human Emissions Human Emissions Human Emissions Land-use Change, Fires Oxidants: OH, H 2 O 2 HO 2,O 3 Fires: soot Mineral dust Biogenic Emissions:CH 4,DMS,VOC’s Dry deposition: stomatal conductance N deposition 0 3, UV radiation The future: a full treatment of climate-chemistry-ecosystem-land surface feedbacks LAND WATER / CITIES Damming / Irrigation / Emission of heat Heat island effect Based on P. Cox, 2004

13. GOES ABBA Source Emission for CO 19SEP2002 - kg/(m 2 s)

14. An example of the biomass burning inventory: August 2004

15. August September Monthly Carbon Monoxide Emission Estimation for 2002 Hybrid remote sensing fire products: GOES WF_ABBA AVHRR and GOES (INPE) MODIS (NASA) Freitas et al 2005 Duncan et al.2003 EDGAR 3.2 Freitas et al 2005 Duncan et al.2003 EDGAR 3.2

16. www.cptec.inpe.br/meio_ambiente Carbon Monoxide (ppb 72 m) Forecast for 3 and 4/September/2004 Carbon Monoxide Source Emission (kg/m 2 s) - 3/September/2004

17. GOES+METEOSAT IR 2100Z/4/September/2004 Carbon Monoxide (ppb 10700 m) Forecast for 3 and 4/September/2004 Upper troposphere transport associated to the a mid-latitude cold front approach

18. An example of CATT-BRAMS output: South American and African biomass burning plumes – Aug/2002

19. GOES+METEOSAT IR 2100Z/4/September/2004 Wet removal of PM2.5 (mg/m 2 ) Forecast for 3 and 4/September/2004 Wet removal of PM2.5 associated to the a mid-latitude cold front approach

20. Mexico City from Satellites – 1 GOME NO 2 December average Data courtesy J. Burrows, U. Bremen Processing by S. Massie, NCAR

21. Chemical Weather seen from Space

22. CLARIS WP4.3 Deliverables k D4.10 (month 12): Implementation of atmospheric chemistry/transport models in South American institutions (“trans-national technology transfer”). k D4.11 (month 18): Joint development (studies/analysis) of detailed emission inventories (natural and anthropogenic compounds) for South America (Exchanges of scientific visitors). k D4.12 (month 24): Joint study/analysis focusing on the evaluation of model simulations and of the impact of environmental policies. k D4.13 (month 36): Training of South American scientists and students at European Institutions for the use of global and regional atmospheric chemical models

23. The End Muchas Gracias Obrigado Merci