Foresight Planning & Strategy Dr. Sameh Aboul Enein

Contents Introduction: Foresight Planning and Strategy in Foreign Policy Case 1: Cybersecurity Case 2: Counter Terrorism Case 3: Nonproliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction

Introduction Foresight planning is the capacity to think systematically about the future to inform today's decision making. It is a capacity that needs to develop among individuals, organisations, and society. It refers to the available research, methods, and tools to develop futuristic planning.

Introduction (contd) Foresight strategy concerns the future, not the present. All our knowledge is about the past, but all our decisions are for the future. Integrating knowledge about the past and present is necessary to devise wise strategic decisions for the future.

Introduction (contd) Foresight planning and strategizing is a recurring practice in foreign policy decision making processes. It involves rigorous information gathering and systemic analysis to create a coherent vision for the future that serves national interests. Multiple sources of information are used including quantitative and qualitative information from staff, experts, and consultants.

Introduction (contd) Questions often posed in strategic foresight planning: What is the vision for the future? How do I achieve that vision? What tools are available to achieve that vision? What obstacles could prevent achieving the vision? Challenges facing strategic foresight: decision making approach / trend analysis and threat prediction / capacity analysis. Three cases are relevant; cybersecurity, counter terrorism, and nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

Case 1; Cybersecurity Vision and foresight: Developing an advanced cybersecurity policy that protects critical infrastructure and free flow of information while countering cyber attacks and malevolent behavior.  Methodology:  Legal Instruments: developing the necessary legal instruments that implicitly or explicitly address cybercrime and security.  Coordination: inter-agency coordination among relevant governmental institutions and organizations.

(contd) Case 1; Cybersecurity Awareness: intensifying awareness campaigns that encourage cyber preparedness and cybersecurity culture among individuals, organizations, and state institutions. International Cooperation: fostering cooperation with local and international institutes and organizations that seek to prevent, detect, and respond to cyber threats. Capacity Building: Developing national capabilities with a view to prepare and prevent cyber attacks and protection against malware attacks to the private and public sector.

(contd) Case 1; Cybersecurity Example: Egypt seeks to develop an advanced cyber security policy that protects end users and counter cyber attacks. It engages in inter-agency meetings to promote cyber security strategies and policies and coordinates internally. It engages in foresight planning to make sure cyber security policies are integrated in government policy-making.

Case 2; Counter Terrorism Vision and foresight: Defeating terrorist organizations, degrading terrorist capabilities, and countering extremist ideology.  Methodology:  Information gathering: using alternative sources for information (open and covert).  Coordination: inter-agency coordination as well as international cooperation in the field of counter terrorism.

Counter Terrorism (contd) Information Technology: use of advanced technologies to track and pursue terrorists and counter extremist ideologies online. Planning: devising coordinated and systemic phases of counter terrorism procedures and measures.

Counter Terrorism (contd) Example: Egypt implements its counter terrorism strategy based on multiple sources to collect information while engaging in internal periodic inter-agency coordination. Foresight strategic planning takes into consideration trend analysis and threat prediction as well internal available capabilities. Egypt conducts a holistic approach in its strategy to counter terrorism, including advanced technological measures.

Case 3; Nonproliferation of WMD’s Vision and foresight: Developing a comprehensive strategy that promotes the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East.  Methodology:  Initiatives: Promoting initiative of establishing a zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East.  Legal Instruments: Abiding by legal instruments pertaining to WMD’s including the NPT and other instruments.

Case 3; Nonproliferation of WMD’s (contd) UN and IAEA Resolutions: Presenting a series of UN and IAEA resolutions that promote the nonproliferation of WMD’s in the Middle East. Political Consultations: Engaging in intensive political consultations with regional and non-regional partners to promote the idea of establishing a zone free of nuclear weapons in the Middle East.

Case 3; Nonproliferation of WMD’s (contd) Example: Egypt’s vision is to promote a regional arrangement that achieves the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East. Such foresight vision includes promoting initiatives, submitting resolutions in relevant international fora, engaging in political consultations, and abiding by relevant legal instruments.

Conclusion Foresight planning and strategy is a significant process in foreign policy decision making requiring information collection, analysis, and visionary approaches. Foresight planning takes into consideration capabilities and potential challenges.