1. The vulnerability of economic markets to crime in 2015
Prof. Dr. Tom Vander Beken
IX. Cross-border Crime Colloquium
Prague, 22 October 2007

2. Intro
“Since the plotters were flexible and resourceful, we cannot know whether any single step or series of steps would have defeated them. What we can say with confidence is that none of the measures adopted by the U.S. government from 1998 to 2001 disturbed or even delayed the progress of the al Qaeda plot. Across the government there were failures of imagination, policy, capabilities, and management. The most important failure was one of imagination. We do not believe leaders understood the gravity of the threat.”
(National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, 2004: 9)

3. Overview 1. The ‘art ’ of environmental scanning
2. Accepting uncertainties: scenarios
3. Scenarios on the vulnerability of economic markets in Europe
4. Conclusion

4. 1. The art of environmental scanning
Environmental scanning assumes that it is possible:
1. to detect major trends in society which are likely to continue in the future (forecast? predict?)
2. to link these trends to assessments of certain crime phenomena (causal relationship)
This is extremely difficult (impossible?)
The relationship between developments in society and crime is too complex. Prediction/forecasting is an art rather than a science.
Moreover, the future is pictured as static and inevitable (utility for policy makers?)

5. 2. Accepting uncertainties: scenarios
The scenario technique allows to think about anticipation and preparation for possible future situations.
Scenarios do not present one future but several alternative worlds worth preparing (anticipating) for.
Starting point are key « uncertainties» to be used in stories about the future.

6. 3. Scenarios on vulnerability of economic markets in Europe
Method
Resistant sectors
Fortress Europe
Sieve
Fragmented vulnerability

7. a. Method
1. Choice of focal question: What could the future look like for the vulnerability of economic sectors in the EU in 2015?
2. Collection and analysis of information that can shape or influence vulnerability issues (literature review, focal groups).
3. Selection of two critical uncertainties: intellectal property rights (will it be enforced?) and regulation of economic markets (public-private partnerships?)

8. b. Resistant sectors Effective enforcement of IPR by private sector
EU organised crime policy remains weak, public autorities on the national level (also driven by cost considerations) engage in PPP
Role private security increases (situational prevention, defensive measures)
Identity fraud (digitalisation of daily life): obtain or create a legitimate identity noth as buyer and as a business.
IPR-enforcement strategies by private sector (technological protection, civil and criminal law suits): protection of private interests (prevention fraud, counterfeiting).

9. c. Fortress Europe
Effective enforcement of IPR by strong public sector
Action plans and actions on counterfeiting and piracy (prevention, investigation, prosecution, adjudication, co-operation,… also with third countries (India, China,…)
Small gap between policy and practice.

10. d. Sieve Weak enforcement of IPR, private sector takes the lead
Insufficient action and success by public authorities, private sector takes the lead
Private sector is fragmented and poorly organised (big, small, rich Europe, developing countries,…)
IPR enforcement is problematic, criminals profit from differences in policy and efficacy, from technological development: counterfeiting on the rise, information theft, cyber corporate espionage,…

11. e. Fragmented vulnerability
Weak enforcement of IPR, public sector takes the lead.
Much policy attention and action on other aspects than IPR (terrorism, cyber crime, …)
No real coordinated action against IPR, no real partnerships on this field.
Private sector protects its own interest as far as it can.
In some sectors, some regions, some criminal activities concerning IPR are countered, in others they are on the rise.

12. 4. Conclusion
As opposed to e.g. analyses in the business world, crime analyses deal with « future » in a very simple and non effective way.
Environmental scans can be useful instruments.
Scenarios, however, are more useful to policy makers as the give a more dynamic picture of the future and can put strategic decisions into perspective.