Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Non-renewable Energy Source: Fossil Fuels Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008 Fossil Fuel Type Reserves–to-production (R/P) ratio gives the number of years the remaining reserves (most optimistic estimates) would last if production were to continue at the 2007 (2010) level Oil41.6 (46.2) years Natural Gas60.3 (58.6) years Coal133 (118) years

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Global CO 2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels & the manufacture of cement (in 10 9 kg CO 2 ): Source:

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Fossil- fuel burning 5.3 Land use 0.6 – 2.6 Photosynthesis Plant respiration Decay of residues Sea-surface gas exchange Net ocean uptake 1.6 – 2.4 Numbers are billions of tons of carbon Geological reservoir Global Carbon Cycle

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Source: CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere (in ppmv) Atmospheric Carbon dioxide Concentrations ppmv in ppmv in pre- industrial time

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) including CO2 GHGs are gases in an atmosphere that absorb and emit radiation within the thermal infrared range. This process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect.

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 The Greenhouse effect A T M O S P H E R E S U N

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 The main GHGs in the Earth's atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone. Without GHGs, Earth's surface would be on average about 33°C colder than at present.

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Rise in the concentration of four GHGs

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Global Warming Potential (GWP) of different GHGs

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 The burning of fossil fuels, land use change and other industrial activities since the industrial revolution have increased the GHGs in the atmosphere to such a level that the earth’s surface is heating up to temperatures that are very destructive to life on earth. Global Warming

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Global temperature anomalies from land meteorological stations (in deg C) Source: Base period

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Global temperature anomalies from land and ocean observations (in deg C) Source: Base period

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Source: Hemispheric annual temperature anomalies from land and ocean observations Base period

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Compare the above with the fact that the global temperature has not varied by more than 1 or 2 o C during the past 100 centuries. The global temperature has risen by 0.74 ± 0.18°C over the last century (from 1906 to 2005). Source: Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Global warming has begun, and so has the Climate Change.

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Consequences…………

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Consequences………… Source: Loss of land: Persistent flooding is causing the submergence of the islands. Food and water shortage: Saltwater intrusion is contaminating the islands freshwater supply and preventing the growth of crops. The islands were declared uninhabitable by the government in 2005 and expected to be completely submerged by World’s first environmental (3000) refugees from Carteret (6) Islands, Papua New Guinea. (a documentary named “Sun come up” has been made on the topic)

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 death of coral reefs fewer cubs for p olar bears spread of dengue and other diseases heavy rains & severe draughts fires, floods, storms, & hurricanes changed rainfall patterns warming and aridity loss of biodiversity Consequences…………

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Rate of increase of CO 2 concentration (in ppmv/year) Source: and ppmv/year in 2008

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 CO 2 concentration in the future (ppmv) global temperature may be up by 2 o C

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, Accelerated Climate Change -Mass extinctions -Ecosystems breakdowns -Large scale discontinuities At the rate of 1.5 ppmv of CO 2 increase per year, 400 ppmv CO 2 will be reached in 2018, and it is probable that the global temperature would go up by 2 o C (compare it with the 0.01 o C per decade estimate by WWF).

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Some say, forget about the 2 o C. The limit is not 400 ppmv CO 2. It is 550 ppmv CO 2 (which is nearly twice the pre-industrial value), which we may reach not.

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 We are lucky. Are we? CO 2 concentration in the future (ppmv)

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Discussion Point: Should we place a limit on the global CO 2 emissions to ensure sustainable development?

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Sustainable Limit Calculations

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production: 1. Virgin material supply limit: To stabilize the atmospheric CO 2 concentration below approximately 550 ppmv by the year 2100, global anthropogenic emissions must be limited to about 7 to 8 x kg (= 7 to 8 giga tonnes) of C per year (IPCC, 1996). Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, Allocation of virgin material: Each of the average 7.5 billion people on the planet over the next 50 years is allocated an equal share of carbon emissions. That is roughly 1 tonne (1000 kg) of C equivalents per person per year, which is roughly 3.8 tonne of CO 2 equivalents per person per year. Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production:

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Sources: USA Sri Lanka Sustainable limit

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Sources: USA Sri Lanka Sustainable limit Norway Singapore Japan Iceland

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 UNDP defined Human Development Index (HDI) HDI = LI 3 + EI 3 + GDPI 3 LI (Life Index) = Life Expectancy GDPI (GDP Index) = ln(GDP per capita) - ln(100) ln(40000) - ln(100) EI (Education Index) = 2 Adult Literacy School Enrollment

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Sources: Sustainable limit HDI > 0.8 Unsustainable amount of per capita CO 2 emissions are required to reach super high HDI (> 0.9) USA Sri Lanka

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Discussion Point: How to limit the CO2 emissions below the sustainable limit?

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Emissions Reduction Option 1: Increase the use of carbon sinks (such as forests where 70% of all photosynthesis occurs). Stop destroying forests, and grow more trees.

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 The forest cover is already too small to help reducing global warming. How long does it take to grow a tree like this?

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Emissions Reduction Option 2: Change to non-CO 2 emitting energy sources What are they? Nuclear Hydro Renewables (Geothermal, Solar, Wave, Tidal, Wind, Biomass and Biogas) Muscle Power

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %)

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %)

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 There is no immediate financial benefits for a switch to renewable energy in the profit- oriented energy markets.

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 More people More pollution Emissions Reduction Option 3: Reduce Population

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 If you are in USA, you will be lighting 18.5 bulbs, each with 200 W power If you are in China, you will be lighting 3 bulbs, each with 200 W power Electricity use in 2006

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 in 2005

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 in 2005

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 CO2 emissions per capita has stronger links with GDP per capita than with population.

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Emissions Reduction Option 4: Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) depleted oil and gas reservoir enhanced recovery saline formation Unminable coal beds terrestrial sequestration power station CO 2 capture and separation ocean sequestration

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 CCS at Weyburn-Midale CO 2 Project: CO 2 emitted from the coal gasification plant in North Dakota (USA) is captured (rather than vented to the atmosphere). It is then liquefied by compression and pipelined 320 km north to the depleted oilfields in Saskatchewan (Canada). CO 2 so transported is used to enhance oil recovery (225 m 3 of CO 2 to get an extra barrel of oil) from depleted oil fields. It is then separated and re-injected into the depleted oilfields for long time storage. The project was launched in 2000, and the 1 st phase has been completed successfully. CCS is controversial since permanent storage of CO 2 underground is not guaranteed

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 CCS in the oceans: inject CO 2 by ship or pipeline into the water column at depths of 1 km or more, and the CO 2 subsequently dissolves. deposit CO 2 directly onto the sea floor at depths greater than 3 km, where CO 2 is denser than water and is expected to form a 'lake' that would delay dissolution of CO2 into the environment. convert the CO 2 to bicarbonates (using limestone) store the CO 2 in solid clathrate hydrates already existing on the ocean floor, or grow more solid clathrate.

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Controversial since the impacts on marine ecosystem (which is very fragile) are not known Capture Dissolution type Lake type Fixed pipelines Moving ships Platform 3 km

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 For energy (electricity and heat), we depend heavily on the combustion of fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas. Fossil fuels burning is responsible for about 85% of the anthropogenic CO 2 emissions produced annually, and therefore the major cause for global warming. It also create NO x and SO x pollution. Fossil fuels are non-renewable sources of energy and is expected to be used up within a century from now. Fossil fuel is not a sustainable energy source.

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 Source:

Prof. R. Shanthini January 07, 2012 The supreme Greek God Zeus told Prometheus: “You may give men such gifts as are suitable, but you must not give them fire for that belongs to the Immortals.” – Roger Lancelyn Green Tales of the Greek Heroes Puffin Classics