1. Climate Change 101

2. Everything I know about Climate Change I learned at the movies… 200620041995

3. Presentation Outline Greenhouse Effect Energy sources Emissions Correlation Future Trends

4. Notes Although the Earth’s atmosphere consists mainly of oxygen and nitrogen, neither plays a significant role in enhancing the greenhouse effect because both essentially transparent to terrestrial radiation. The greenhouse effect is primarily a function of the concentration of water vapor, carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that absorb the terrestrial radiation leaving the surface of the Earth. Changes in the atmospheric concentrations of these greenhouse gases can alter the balance of energy transfers between the atmosphere, space, land and oceans. A gauge of these changes is called radiative forcing. Holding everything else constant, increases in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere will produce positive radiative forcing (i.e., a net increase in the absorption of energy by the Earth). Water Vapor (H 2 O) is the most abundant and dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Water vapor is neither long-lived nor well mixed in the atmosphere, varying spatially from 0 to 2 percent. In addition, atmospheric water can exist in several physical states including gaseous, liquid, and solid. Human activities are not believed to affect directly the average global concentration of water vapor, but, the radiative forcing produced by the increased concentrations of other greenhouse gases may indirectly affect the hydrologic cycle. As we will soon see, CO 2 is by far the most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas, so other gases are set to units equivalent to CO 2. What is important to note, however, is that some gases have quite large affects and stay in the atmosphere for long periods of time. Sulfur hexafluoride is an insulator used in electrical equipment and switches, carbon tetrafluoride is one of a family of perfluorocarbons mostly emitted from the smelting of aluminum)

5. Source: EPA Global Warming site. http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/climate.html

6. CO 2 CH 4 N2ON2OCF 4 SF 6 Atmospheric Lifetime (years) 50-20012114>50,0003,200 Pre-industrial Concentration (ppm) 2800.7220.270400 Atmospheric Concentration (ppm) 3811.7740.319805.4 Rate of Concentration Change (ppm/yr) 1,6100.0050.00071.0 (ppt/yr) 0.23 (ppt/yr) Effects of Different Greenhouse Gases Source: US EPA: US Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reports 2008 http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/usinventoryreport.html

7. Presentation Outline Greenhouse Effect Energy sources Emissions Correlation Future Trends

8. Fossil Fuels World’s Dominant Energy Source United States (2005) 100 QBtu/yr (1.06e14 MJ) 86% Fossil Energy World (2005) 462 Quads/yr (4.87e14 MJ) 86% Fossil Energy World Data from International Energy Outlook 2007 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html. U.S. Data from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/fuel.html Coal 26% Coal 26% Oil 37% Gas 23% Nuclear 6% Gas 23% Nuclear 8% Oil 41% Hydro 3% Renewables (solar, wind, geothermal, biomass) 3% Renewables 8% Coal 23% Coal 23%

9. Renewables 6% 100 Quads Fossil fuels provide 86% of energy 2005 2030 131 Quads By 2030, reliance on fossil fuels remains stable at 86% Coal 23% Nuclear 8% Renewables 6% Oil 41% Gas 23% Coal 26% Nuclear 7% Oil 40% Gas 20% + 31% Source: AEO 2007 Energy - USA Energy Requirements

10. 6.3 Quads 2005 2030 13.7 Quads + 118% Source: AEO 2008 Renewable Energy Consumption – Growing Fast BUT from a Small Base

11. Presentation Outline Greenhouse Effect Energy sources Emissions Correlation Future Trends

12. All Fossil Fuels and Energy Sectors Contribute CO 2 Emissions Industry 29% Industry 29% Commercial 18% Commercial 18% Residential 21% Transportation 32% Transportation 32% Oil 44% Oil 44% Coal 36% Coal 36% Natural Gas 20% AEO2007 United States Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Source and Sector

13. CO 2 and CH 4 - The Primary GHG Contributors Methane 9% Nitrous Oxide 5% HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 2% CO 2 from Energy 83% Other CO 2 2% “EIA Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the U.S. 2005” United States Greenhouse Gas Emissions Equivalent Global Warming Basis

14. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions By Region, 2001-2025 (Million Metric Tons of C Equivalent) Carbon Intensity By Region, 2001-2025 (Metric Tons of C Equivalent per Million $1997) …But Carbon Dioxide Emissions are growing Carbon Intensity is falling…

15. The Budget is Disappearing Cumulative Carbon Emissions 1900-2100 (GtC) Budget for 450 ppm Stabilization Spent Remaining Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004

16. Presentation Outline Greenhouse Effect Energy sources Emissions Correlation Future Trends

17. Atmospheric Concentrations are Rising…

18. CO 2 Concentrations on the Rise (~280 ppm to 370 ppm over last 100 years) Temperature Change from Present ( o C) Time Before Present (kyr) CO 2 Concentration (ppmv) 20015050 350 300 250 200 1000 2 0 -2 -4  T atm (Vostok) CO 2 (Vostok)

20. Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics.htm

21. Presentation Outline Greenhouse Effect Energy sources Emissions Correlation Future Trends

22. Possible Harbingers… Rising sea levels Spreading disease Shifting in seasons (e.g., earlier spring arrival) Shifting ranges of plant and animal Changes in animal and plant populations Bleaching of coral reef Melting permafrost melting Increased catastrophic weather (e.g., heavy snowfalls, flooding, ice storms, droughts, fires)

25. Source: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov and National Climatic Data Center, NOAA Permafrost and polar ice are melting…

26. Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA Precipitation is erratic

27. Significant Climate Anomalies Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

28. Insert your thoughts here..... What do you think?