Project Overview and Scenario Process Prof. Malcolm Eames 6 October 2011

Project Aims To develop the knowledge and capability to overcome the separation between the "what" and "how" of urban scale retrofitting in order promote a managed socio-technical transition in built environment and urban infrastructure.

Vision To deliver a 'step change' in current knowledge and capacity to underpin the transition to urban sustainability, by working with key stakeholders to illuminate challenging but realistic social & technological options and pathways for systemic retrofitting of two core UK city regions (Greater Manchester and Cardiff/SE Wales) by 2050

Step Change From… Incremental & near market technologies Niche experiments Piecemeal & fragmented programmes Limited capacity for learning To… Prospective tech. and disruptive innovation Systems change Integration across scales Top down & bottom up learning

Objectives Explore and advance both theoretical and practical understandings of processes of systems innovation and transition in an urban context. Analyse through case studies, modelling and international comparison, the technical and social processes underpinning such transitions. Identify and characterise prospective disruptive technologies and systems innovations which will underpin a transition to sustainability in the built environment (over the period ) Articulate and appraise regionally specific visions and prospective pathways for urban scale retrofitting of the built environment. To develop and test an integrated socio-technical support system that practically assists … improving effectiveness and efficiency of retrofitting processes.

What we intend to deliver Improved societal understanding of long-term transitions (energy, water & waste) for sustainable urban retrofitting Mobilise expectations around clearly articulated, pathways & scenarios for prospective disruptive technologies and systems innovations Integrated urban scale modelling and evaluation tools to support improved decision-making and implementation Practical knowledge exchange framework which cities can apply to drive forward systemic retrofitting

Work Package 1 Urban Transitions Analysis Work Package 2 Urban Foresight Laboratory ( ) Work Package 3 Urban Options, Visualisation and Pathways Analysis Work Package 4 Synthesis, Comparison & Knowledge Exchange Urban Foresight Panel Scenario Workshops Produces set of contextual ‘socio- technical’ scenarios for testing in WP3 Project Structure

Urban Retrofit Scenarios An Outline Framework for Scenario Foresight and Appraisal

Foresight & Scenario Approaches Descriptive Forecasts use formal quantitative extrapolation and modelling to predict ‘ likely ’ futures from current trends. Exploratory Scenarios explore possible futures. They emphasise drivers, and do not specify a predetermined desirable end state towards which storylines must progress. Technical Scenarios explore possible future technological systems. They emphasise the technical feasibility and implications of different options, rather than exploring how different futures might unfold. Normative Visions are elaborations – usually narrative accounts - of a desirable/sustainable future. They describe a (more or less) plausible end state rather than the pathways through which that future might be achieved. Backcasting studies start by defining a desirable and plausible future end point (or vision). They then investigate possible pathways to reach that point. Socio-technical transition scenarios emphasis a multi level co-evolutionary understanding of the social and technological dimensions of the large scale systems changes. Roadmaps provide a schematic description (time line) of a sequence of specific measures or targets designed to bring about a particular future.

Methodology We will adopt a participatory backcasting approach in order to develop a realistic, internally coherent and transparent set of socio-technical transition scenarios for systemic urban retrofitting.

The Retrofit 2050 Scenarios Process StepFocusParticipants Phase 1 October 2011 – September Problem Framing & Structuring Practices, drivers and expectations Urban Foresight Panel of national experts 2. Visioning Radical & disruptive innovation across scales and domains (Indicator development) 3. Pathway Analysis Transition dynamics (Indicator development) Phase 2 October 2012 – June Regional Implementation Grounding and visualisation (Modelling) Key regional stakeholders Phase 3: June 2013 – September Evaluation & Appraisal Sustainability and resilience under multiple perspectives (Multi Criteria Analysis) Wider sample of regional stakeholders & societal interests

Urban Foresight Panel Your role in the process: Broaden the range of disciplinary, professional & organisational knowledge Contribute a high degree of creativity, critical thinking and challenge Help to ensure the relevance, usefulness and usability of the outputs

Defining ‘Sustainable Urban Retrofit’ “…the directed alteration of the fabric, form or systems which comprise the built environment in order to improve energy, water and waste efficiencies.”

Urbanisation is a complex socio-technical process

Retrofit as an emergent process… Improvement Innovation Repair Maintenance

Retrofit ‘Regimes’: a Socio-Technical Perspective Retrofit Regime1 Buildings Networks of Actors Institutions Policies and Regulations Culture & Heritage Shared Expectations User Practices Skills & Training InfrastructuresTechnologies Retrofit Regime3 Buildings Networks of Actors Policies & Regulation Institutions Culture & Heritage Expectation s User Practices Skills & Training Infrastructur es Technologie s Retrofit Regime2 Buildings Networks of Actors Policies & Regulati on Institutio ns Culture & Heritage Expectati ons User Practices Skills & Training Infrastruc tures Technolo gies Retrof it Regim e4 Buildin gs Netwo rks of Actors Policie s & Regul ation Institut ions Cultur e & Herita ge Expect ations User Practic es Skills & Trainin g Infrastr ucture s Techn ologie s