1. Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:
Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006
Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:
Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
Effie Amanatidou1, Ken Guy2
1University of Manchester/OPTIMA, PhD researcher – ATLANTIS, Director STP Unit
2 Wise Guys Ltd., Director

2. Presentation Contents
Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
Presentation Contents
Research Problem and Purpose Statement
Interpretation of Foresight impacts
Conceptual Framework of emerging societies
Contribution of Foresight
Developing an Impact Assessment Framework
Objectives Hierarchy
Approach for developing an IAF - Foresight system
Approach for developing an IAF - Wider Environment
The Logic Model
Conclusions

3. Research Problem & Purpose Statement
Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
Research Problem & Purpose Statement
Lack of common impact assessment framework for foresight exercises irrespective of case - specific aims, objectives, levels and focus of implementation
Need for a common impact assessment framework for good practices, coordination and benchmarking
Need for a ‘higher level’ of reference
‘Lisbon’ agenda and more participatory governance
Purpose Statement
develop an impact assessment framework as a tool with which to examine the impact of foresight exercises in developing a more participatory ‘knowledge society’, thus enabling the assessment of foresight according to criteria common across different countries or regions.

4. Conceptual Framework for the Emerging Societies
Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
Conceptual Framework for the Emerging Societies
Fact-
driver
Social
move.
Ways K
mediated
ICTs
Condition
factor
Servi
ices
Kbased
Indus.
Intang
ibles
Active
participation
Social
trust
Informed
publics
K-based
input
economy
Coping with
risk society
Dominant
role of
knowledge
Actors
allign
Dealing with
uncertainty
Knowledge
creation,
absorption
learning
Innovation-
based
growth
Social
capital
Skills-
compet.
Net-
working
Social
change
Tech.

5. Contribution of Foresight
Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
Contribution of Foresight
Fact-
driver
Social
move.
Ways K
mediated
ICT
Condition
factor
Kbased
Indus
Social
trust
Informed
publics
K-based
input
economy
Active
participation
Servi
ices
Coping with
risk society
Dominant
role of
knowledge
Dealing with
Uncertainty
Knowledge
creation,
absorption
learning
Intang
ibles
Actors
allign
Innovation-
based
growth
Net-
working
Skills-
compet
Social
capital
Tech.
change
Social
change

6. Objectives Hierarchy for Foresight exercises
Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
Objectives Hierarchy for Foresight exercises
Higher Level Goals
Related Preconditions
Specific Skills Competences
Technological and Social change
(Social) Trust CR KS
Intermediate Goals IP DU AP
INNO
CDA AA N SC
Lower Level Goals
Lower Level Goals:
AA: Aligning actors
N: Facilitating networking
SC: Increasing levels of social capital
Intermediate Goals:
IP: Creating informed publics
DU: Dealing with uncertainty
AP: Promoting active participation
INNO: Supporting innovation-based growth
CDA: Increasing knowledge creation, diffusion and absorption
Higher Level Goals:
CR: Coping with the ‘risk society’
KS: Enhancing the ‘knowledge society’

7. Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
Approach for developing the Impact Assessment Framework – Foresight System
(based on the cases of UK, Sweden and Malta)
Actors
Processes
Inputs
Objectives
Principles / criteria related to actors:
Non-fragmented institutions
Mutual interests – common goals
Interdependence
Principles/ criteria
Principles / criteria
Principle/ criteria N AA IP
CDA DU AP SC
Principles / criteria related to objectives:
Clear, non-divergent objectives
Well grounded logic of intervention
Clear focus
Principles / criteria related to processes:
managing of expectations
openness
transparency
inclusiveness - early public engagement
media coverage, promotion
Principles / criteria related to inputs / outputs:
 quality  relevance  timing

8. Foresight System Wider Environment
Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
Approach for developing the Impact Assessment Framework – Wider Environment
(based on the cases of UK, Sweden and Malta)
Degree of inter-institutional communication and collaboration
Degree of inter-disciplinary collaboration
Degree of public-private sector divide
Institutional settings
Actors’ configuration - communication
Changing political circumstances
Interested customers with absorptive capacities
Engage those who make policy, have ability to take action
Actors
factors
factors
Objectives
Structure of innovation process – advance-ment of KS
Processes
Governance Policy-making culture
Wider Environment
Foresight System
factors
Society in favour of change / innovation
Perception of other actors’ roles, and interests
Degree of divisiveness and individuality in the society
Generation gap
Fragmentation in policy system
Degree of development of planning processes and consultation
Degree of party political divide
Timing and level of commitment
factors
Inputs
Socio-cultural
context

9. Impact Assessment Framework - Foresight System
Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
Impact Assessment Framework - Foresight System
(specifically for impacts related to networking and actors’ alignment)
Actors
Processes
Inputs
Objectives
Principles / criteria related to actors:
Inter-institutional communication and collaboration
Mutual interests
Low dependence
Principles/ criteria
Principles / criteria
Principle/ criteria
Principles / criteria related to processes:
inclusiveness
flexibility
Sustainability of networks created
Principles / criteria related to objectives:
Goals alignment AA N
Principles / criteria related to inputs / outputs:
compatibility / complementary areas of expertise

10. Foresight System Wider Environment
Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
Impact Assessment Framework – Wider Environment
(specifically for impacts related to networking and actors’ alignment)
Alignment of
solution with funder gover/nce
solutions and current trends
players with other players
compet. and collab. techn.
Degree of inter-institutional communication and collaboration
Low dependencies
Goals alignment
Institutional settings
Actors’ configuration - communication
Actors
factors
factors
Structure of innovation process – advance-ment of KS
Objectives
Processes
Governance Policy-making culture
Wider Environment
Foresight System
Trust
Perceptions alignment
Peoples individual characteristics
Social context
factors
The degree the government and regulatory contexts promotes networking
factors
Inputs
Socio-cultural
context

11. Funding, Personnel, Past results, Data, Experts, etc.
Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
The Logic Model
(incorporating Objectives Hierarchy-Foresight System-Wider Environment)
Upper System Goals
Foresight System internal criteria related to:
Actors
Processes
Objectives
Inputs/ Outputs
Wider environment external factors related to:
Institutional settings, Actors’ configuration – communication
Governance / Policy-making culture
Socio-cultural context
Structure of innovation process – advancement of KS CR KS
Strategic Goals/Impacts IP DU AP
INNO
CDA
Lower level Goals/Impacts AA N SC
Outcomes immediate impacts
New combinations stakeholders
Visions for the future
Changes of mindsets
Multi-disciplinary research ……
Foresight activities
Scoping
Appointment of experts
Commission studies, workshops
Communication of findings
Inputs
Funding, Personnel, Past results, Data, Experts, etc.

12. Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
Conclusions
It is possible to assess foresight exercises in terms of their contribution to more participatory ‘knowledge societies’.
In doing this it is important to understand how foresight influences specific impact areas.
This in turn presupposes understanding of the dynamics of foresight systems and their interaction with the wider environment.
It is possible to build models that help identify internal criteria and external factors to understand how a foresight system works and how it should work.
Each impact area should also be studied separately in order not to miss additional area-specific internal criteria and external factors that have to be considered.
The impact assessment framework can then be built according to the Logic Model approach.