1. The Use and Impact of FTA
Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making
16th- 17th October 2008
The Use and Impact of FTA
Attila Havas and Ron Johnston
Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, and
Australian Centre for Innovation

2. A new, pragmatic approach is proposed
The Use and Impact of FTA
Motivation
Theoretical frameworks to assess impacts of FTA seem to overly sophisticated
(reviewed in the anchor paper)
A new, pragmatic approach is proposed
(not another academic attempt)
Invite the community to work on the impact of FTA
conduct empirical work (case studies, evaluation projects, comparative analyses, etc.)
review/ analyse empirical results
develop relevant methods, experiment with new approaches

3. A climate of urgency to address the future
The Use and Impact of FTA
Current state of FTA
A climate of urgency to address the future
Increased adoption at many levels and in various forms
Varied roles:
an expert-based policy informing tool
an integral part of policy processes, operating by forward looking strategic support to informing and co-ordinating functions
a pacemaker through capacity building for policy intelligence

4. Key challenges for the FTA community
The Use and Impact of FTA
Key challenges for the FTA community
How is the practice of FTA contributing to the effective addressing of the major challenges we face in the future?
If it is not sufficiently being employed, what shortcomings can be identified?
What steps can be taken to ensure a greater and more effective application of FTA, with more visible impacts?

5. Six function of foresight for policy-making – FTA 2006
The Use and Impact of FTA
Six function of foresight for policy-making – FTA 2006
Informing policy
Facilitating policy implementation
Embedding participation in policy-making
Supporting policy definition
Reconfiguring the policy system
A symbolic function

6. Arguments used by FTA experts to promote the adoption of FTA
The Use and Impact of FTA
Arguments used by FTA experts to promote the adoption of FTA
Somewhat theoretical/ abstract arguments to convince decision-makers that:
(i) a variety of issues needs to be tackled
(ii) an FTA-based approach is the most appropriate means for addressing these issues

7. Arguments used by FTA experts (2)
The Use and Impact of FTA
Arguments used by FTA experts (2)
FTA can improve decision-making processes by emphasising the possibility of alternative futures, and the opportunity of shaping a preferred future
FTA can address the complexities arising from the interaction of socio-economic and technological drivers by bringing together different communities with complementary knowledge and experience
FTA process can reduce uncertainty because participants can align their endeavours once they achieve a shared vision
FTA processes help in identifying and achieving attitudinal/ behavioural changes, and encourage creative thinking

8. Arguments used by FTA experts (3)
The Use and Impact of FTA
Arguments used by FTA experts (3)
FTA processes contribute to strengthening existing networks and clusters and building new ones
FTA can assist policy-makers by providing a sound understanding of the underlying causes and mechanisms of technological change
FTA dialogues with a wide range of stakeholders lead to a more transparent decision-making process, and hence offer a way to obtain public support
FTA can assist policy-makers faced with intensifying social concerns about new technologies

9. What users want from FTA
The Use and Impact of FTA
What users want from FTA
Less uncertainty in decision-making
A feasible (‘actionable’) plan
A tool that aligns with organisational decision- making processes and timeframes
A means to challenge and catalyse staff and stakeholders
Varies by countries/ organisations/ individuals!

10. Differentiating what users want …
The Use and Impact of FTA
Differentiating what users want …
Advanced countries: FTA is one of many tools; practical delivery of outcomes is the most important criterion for adoption
Countries with less well-established governance systems: a major national FTA project as a central component of their development strategies
Large companies: enhanced strategic planning, preferably embedded in high performance software systems
Innovation-intensive SMEs: impatient with any tool that diverts them from their core business, while at the same time regularly apply improvised FTA perspectives

11. An illustration: impacts of Foresight
The Use and Impact of FTA
An illustration: impacts of Foresight
Functions of Foresight assessed
policy informing
policy advisory/ strategic counselling
policy facilitating
The cases considered: evaluated national Foresight programmes UK
eForesee in Malta (international programme)
Hungary
Sweden
source: Havas, Schartinger and Weber [2007]

12. Impacts of Foresight … (2)
The Use and Impact of FTA
Impacts of Foresight … (2)
Policy informing
Results of F: a ‘reservoir’ of knowledge
Uneven way as active inputs into the political process
Quality and trustworthiness of the reports: of value in decision-making processes
Strategic counselling
Time lag between F and the use of F results in policy-making  extremely difficult to evaluate the impacts
Policy facilitating
„Soft“ evidence of the sustainable creation of new linkages and of networks of major stakeholders

13. Difficulties of evaluating impact are intrinsic to the role of FTA
The Use and Impact of FTA
Conclusions
Embedding FTA in the decision-making processes is a far from trivial task
It is crucial to evaluate FTA activities/ processes, but new methods are needed
Difficulties of evaluating impact are intrinsic to the role of FTA
The closer the inter-action between FTA and policy-making, the more difficult is isolating the effects of single FTA activities on a complex and continuous process like policy-making

14. Make impact assessment a widely used practice
The Use and Impact of FTA
Recommendations
Make impact assessment a widely used practice
Analyse the differences between the promised, expected and actual impacts
1 & 2  improved design of FTA projects, a more appropriate and wider use of FTA