Planning for Research Success August 6, 2011 William R. Kinney, Jr. PhD Project – ADSA Making a Difference Denver, Colorado

Outline Planning process overview X, Y, V, and Z - a framework for planning The scholarly researcher’s problem Threats to research validity (Runkle and McGrath meet Cook and Campbell) Hints on how to get your paper published in a top-tier scholarly journal and other suggestions

1. Planning process overview Nothing you don’t know or couldn’t figure out with slight effort. “Facts” are real world observables. “Problems” are facts or relationships between facts that you don’t like or understand. “Theories” are ideas about causal relationships between facts (or what causes the problem “facts”) “Hypotheses” are predictions of real world observables that should occur if your theory is descriptive of the real world.

Getting started Hint: “One gets the biggest potatoes on the first pass through the field” (Irish agricultural economics principle per Frank O’Connor, University of Iowa) Suppose that you have an idea (a problem): you observe undesirable “facts” or peculiar “facts” or claims What research barriers must be overcome: –Availability of: Causal theories? Data? Estimation methods? –Research design (how to combine the above)? –Exposition (if you can’t explain it, you fail)? Who will want to read your paper (and why)? What is your comparative advantage?

Auditing research domain Laws, regs, governance Contracts/ incentives Professional standards Firm organization, mores External enforcement Culture, markets, traditions AccountingAuditing Professional structure KS KPS

An idea source: the Sarbanes- Oxley Act of 2002 Result of 25 year economic, technological, social, and professional/regulatory changes Challenges –Relevance of GAAP –Reliability of auditing standards –Trustworthiness of auditors, independent directors, standards setters, financial intermediaries and employ- ment contracts that bind them Mandates a new (3 rd ) role for accounting... this is a big new potato -- new states, new actions need new theories to explain/understand

Y = f ( X, Vs, Zs ) Y = phenomenon to be explained X = your (new) theory about a cause of Y Vs = prior causes of Y Zs = contemporaneous causes of Y 2. A Framework

How does X (treatment) get there? Experiments vs. Archival studies {V -3, V -2, V -1 } Y1 Y1 X0X0 Z0Z0 ? Random assignment or independent of V vs. Self selection or V(s) determine X

3. Scholarly Researcher’s Problem:  = risk that data incorrectly “accepts” new theory  = risk that data incorrectly “rejects” new theory  = true size of X effect on Y  = residual variation given research design (i.e., after effects of Vs and Zs) n = available sample size All five are related through a single, simple formula

The Sample Size formula: (Z  + Z  ).   n = ( ) 2

Researcher’s Problem (continued)  is fixed at.05 or.10 by journal editors  is the researcher’s risk of failing (you want to minimize  )  = f ( X : Y relation)  = f ( Vs, Zs) n is semi-fixed by data availability or cost  = f (  n ) ****

Graphically... (small , small    okay) _ Y| H 0, n,   _ Y| H A, n,  0 Accept H 0 Reject H 0 Y  

Graphically... (large , large    okay) _ Y| H 0, n,  0 Y Accept H 0 Reject H 0   _ Y| H A, n,  

Graphically... (small , large    yikes!) _ Y| H 0, n,  0 Y Accept H 0 Reject H 0   _ Y| H A, n,  

4. Analyze Threats to Validity using Predictive Validity (Libby) Boxes 5 Control Other potentially influential variables Vs and Zs Operational X Operational Y Operational Theoretical X (X ) Theoretical Y (Y) Conceptual 1 Independent Dependent

It is believable that X causes Y if : X and Y are correlated Vs and Zs ruled out by design, including –Y causes X –X and Y caused by an omitted V or Z Reason to believe that operational X and Y measure X and Y Reason to believe that X : Y relation generalizes to other persons, times, and settings.

Validity threats linked to Libby boxes (and Vs and Zs) Statistical Conclusion Validity (5) Internal Validity (4) Construct Validity (2 and 3) External Validity ( 1 generalizes to ??)

Auditor independence and non-audit services: Was the U.S. government right? (Kinney, Palmrose, Scholz) Does an audit firm’s dependence on fees for FISDI, internal audit, and certain other services to an audit client reduce financial reporting quality? The answer is important because a) the Sarbanes-Oxley Act presumes so, banning such services to audit clients, and b) some registrants now voluntarily restrict tax and other legally permitted services. Using fee data from for restating and similar non- restating registrants, we find no consistent association between fees for FISDI or internal audit services with restatements, but find significant positive association between unspecified services fees and restatements and significant negative association between tax services and restatements.

Libby boxes for KPS example... Lower quality financial reporting Auditor dependence on client 1 Non-audit fees Restatement 23 5 Industry, size, audit policies, acquisitions, etc. 4 Conceptual Operational Control Independent Dependent

Causal theory vs. Policy using Libby Boxes (causal theory testing) 5 Control Other potentially influential variables Vs and Zs Operational X Operational Y Operational Theoretical X (X ) Theoretical Y (Y) Conceptual 1 Independent Dependent + +

Causal Theory vs. Policy using Libby Boxes (policy testing) 5 Control Other potentially influential variables Vs and Zs Operational X Operational Y Operational Conceptual New policy Desired behaviors 1 Independent Dependent 0, < 0 + identical Need creativity

Your main contribution is: 1. New data 2. New estimation 3. New theory (or new problem) 5. Hint one: Whatever it is, Exploit it!

Broaden your contribution (and reader interest) by: 1. Making your theory elaborate 2. Using multi-methods and multi-measures 3. Generalizing your approach across contexts, disciplines, cultures, and time Hint Two:

In introducing your paper, tell the reader: 1. What (specific) problem will be addressed 2. Why the (specific) problem is important 3. How you will address the (specific) problem (and what you found) Hint Three: (One page, double-spaced, 12 pt. font, normal margins, and include an informative title!)

Order of importance of clear and compelling exposition Title Abstract Introduction Conclusions... rest of text

Referees are not (entirely) stoopid – Sometimes: –They are right –They are misguided, but you misguided them –They are wrong, but remind you that you were making a different (and important) point –They are simply wrong and nothing need be done (extremely rare, in my experience) Always “attend to” their comments – you will benefit.

Remember... Plan for research success –write the three paragraphs before you do the work –minimize  ex ante –maximize validity ex ante Make your unique contribution apparent to all Your present model of the world is simplified – be alert to revision via new problems, theories, data, and methods (read, take courses, attend seminars in potentially related areas for new theories, monitor data sources, scan for useful research tools)

References Cook, and D. Campbell, Quasi-experimentation design & analysis issues for field settings. Houghton Mifflin Co. (New York) 1971 (Validity types). Kinney, W., "Empirical Accounting Research Design for Ph.D. Students," The Accounting Review, April 1986 (3 paragraphs and integration). Libby, R., Accounting and human information processing: Theory and applications. Prentice-Hall, Inc., (Englewood Cliffs) 1981 (Boxes). Runkel, P., and J. McGrath, Research on human behavior – A systematic guide to method. Holt, Rinehart, and Winston, Inc., (New York) 1972 (Boxes). Simon, J., and P. Burstein, Basic Research Methods in Social Science (3 rd ed.). Random House, (New York) 1985 (Chapter 3 – X, Y, Vs, Zs).