1 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Project Performance & Risk Management Aesook Byon, Deputy Project Director NSLS-II PAC Meeting March 29-30, 2012

2 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Outline Cost, Schedule, & Project Performance Comprehensive EAC Risk Update Conclusions

3 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Cost Baseline TPC$ 912 M Baseline Cost (Planned work)$ 828 M Contingency $ 84 M Completed work (Feb ‘12) $597M (72% complete) Committed work-to-go$72M Uncommitted work-to-go$159M Remaining work ($231M) Contingency ($84M): 36% of remaining work 53% of uncommitted work-to-go

4 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Cost Baseline $109M Contingency utilization since CD-2 approval  $33M for additional labor (15% increase from CD-2 Baseline, $225M)  $40M for Materials & Services (8% increase from CD-2 Baseline, $494M)  $36M for scope enhancements/additions Cost performance:12% ($73M/$597M) over baseline plan ($M) WBS CD-2 (Nov ‘07) Dec ‘09 Baseline Last PAC (Dec ‘10) Current Baseline (Feb ‘12) Change since Dec ‘ Project Management R&D and Conceptual Design Accelerator Systems Experimental Facilities Conventional Facilities Pre-Operations Grand Totals:

5 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Contingency spending history (Mar ‘08 – Feb ‘12) ($K) total (per month)w/o scope addition (per month) 3/08-2/12 $109M ($2.2M)$73M ($1.5M) FY2008 $12M ($1.5M) $5M ($0.6M) FY2009 $17M ($1.4M)$17M ($1.4M) FY2010 $33M ($2.7M)$20M ($1.7M) FY2011 $39M ($3.3M)$23M ($1.9M) FY2012 $7M ($1.4M) $7M ($1.4M) Spending category: labor/space $33M (30%) M&S$40M (37%) scope additions $36M (33%)

6 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Schedule Float & Critical Path Critical Path: through Accelerator installation & commissioning 35mm Dipole magnet production delivery  girder assembly/installation  Storage Ring commissioning without ID  SR integrated test with ID scope beyond KPP (“schedule contingency”) Commission SR w/o ID June ‘13 – Oct ’13Met KPP for accelerator systems Install ID Nov ‘13 – Dec ’13 Commission SR w/ ID Jan ’14 – Apr ’14 Early Project Completion, June 2014 (Lv 1 Milestone) Currently projected early completion day is April 2014 Baseline Level-1 milestone date with built-in schedule float (~2 months) –“Spent” 7 weeks schedule float over past 33 months (<3% increase) CD-4, Start of Operations, June months after the projected early completion date 6 month extra credit activity

7 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Sectional commissioning without beam CD-2 Baseline schedule Current baseline Current projection (schedule EAC) Magnet Production & Installation Schedule Met KPP for Accelerator Extra credit activities

8 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Cost, Schedule & % completion Overall project : 72% complete as of Feb ‘12 with CPI = 1.01 & SPI = 0.96 Impressive amount of work ($238M) completed since last PAC meeting was 46% complete at Jan 2011 and now 72% at Feb 2012 (w/ additional LOB’s & other scope additions) We are maintaining our momentum into 2012 Expect to complete ~90% of current baseline by January 2013

9 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES CPI = 1.01 SPI = 0.96 We are now near the shoulder

10 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Monthly Burn Rate Apr 2013 ($M) Cumulative ($M) Monthly

11 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Estimate at Completion (EAC) General Principles Aggressively pursue accurate EAC information as a management tool Estimates that are good projections (~50%<probability<~90%) but still can be managed Managing to the baseline. Contingency spending is not a routine solution 2011 Annual comprehensive assessment conducted over Sep – Dec ’11 Review of all activities through project completion date, especially labor estimate Bottom line: EAC was $24.4M over BAC (~$13M for Accelerator Systems) $13.4MM&S $7.7MTEC labor(~31 FTE-year) $3.3MOPC labor(~13 FTE-year) Risk was $30M, including $12.2M for additional labor $17.8MM&S $5.5MTEC labor(~22 FTE-year) $6.7MOPC labor(~27 FTE-year) 44 FTE EAC $24.4M Risk $30.0M 49 FTE 93 Total FTEs

12 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Comprehensive EAC (Dec 2011) WBSDescription($K)WBSDescription($K) 1.1 Project management labor, space and utilities 1, DW raw material cost increase 2, Design room equipment CPMU R&D Accelerator Physics additional Computers IVU overrun due to material price increase Cost increase for booster main power supply ID measurement & installation labor corr Booster rf cavities Vacc fac. Clean. Set-up cost overrun Transport line installation M&S and labor management budget increase Injector survey missing M&S and labor XPD Laue Monochromater cost increase Additional labor for injector process water sys HXN optics package contract award Injector installation labor short fall Phasing magnet for EPU's for CSX Magnet schedule mitigations 1, LOB std. lab equipment pack (3x) Labor for magnet schedule mitigation 1, Under estimated labor for beamline1, Magnet 2nd source contracts AE Support for LOB 4 & Magnet cooling water manifords Ring Building construction field changes1, Under-run in vacuum chamber contracts -1, Resolution of ESH issues from BOREs Power supply system labor and M&S overrun 1, Additional furnatures for larger LOBs (1&3) Increase in optical monitoring LOB construction Field Changes Frontend cost saving LOB construction safety incentive Additional labor and M&S for SR Survey Wireless communication repeaters SR utility labor and contract overruns Network infrastructure for LOB 4& Additional labor for girder installation Additional manpower for accelerator pre-ops2, PPS interlock materials and labor Additional manpower for beamline pre-ops1,242 EAC Total $24.4M ~ $4M PCRs approved since then

13 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Staffing 20 Staff at 9/06 80 Staff at 9/ Staff at 9/08 20 Staff at 9/06 80 Staff at 9/ Staff at 9/08 Increase in staffing for accelerator, beamline engineering, construction management (oversight, ESH, QA) and project support (procurement, HR, project control) Sufficient staffing allocated for all activities through FY12 Accelerator Systems increased from 554 at CD-2 to 717 FTE now (>29% increase) 35% increase (90 FTE) for remaining years captured in EAC and Risks Continue to evaluate details in commissioning & pre-ops Total Cumulative FTEs: CD-2 Baseline 1,188 today 1,467 (>23% increase) Allocated in EAC + Risk ~35% increase

14 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Risk Update Risk RatingAug 2008 Apr 2009 Jan 2010 Oct 2010 Jun 2011 Mar 2012 High Medium Low Retired Recent Updates (ratings or $ estimates reduced) SR magnet production Insertion Device production Beamline enclosures & controls system Construction safety To be retired soon: Changes in requirements for conventional facilities Interface of 2 contractors on Ring Building site

15 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Summary of Risks - Mar 2012 Risks risk rating overall rating estimated retire date ID#WBSDescription cost ($K) costscheduletechnical ESH Construction Safety$1,000LMn/aLJun-14 PMG additional labor$1,000Ln/a LJun-13 PMG additional space charge$3,000Mn/a MJun-13 ASD unexpected difficulties with dynamic aperture$200 LLLLOct-13 ASD Linac turn key procurement$250 LLLLApr-12 ASD Booster turn key procurement$500LMLLAug-12 ASD SR magnet production$500LMLLAug-12 ASD SR vacuum chamber production$0n/aLLLApr-12 ASD SR RF cavity production$1,000 LMMMOct-13 ASD Insertion device production$500 LMLLNov-12 ASD BPM electronics$200LLLLDec-12 ASD SR installation - underestimated labor$500LMLLDec-12 XFD Enclosures, Utilities, Std Cmpnts, PPS & EPS$920LLLLJun-12 Optics$700LMMMSep-12 Endstations$3,800MMMHSep-12 Controls$180LLLLJun-12 Labor$4,500MLLMOct-12 CFD Changes in requirements for conventional facilities$200LLLLJun-12 CFD Field changes for conventional construction$2,000MLLMDec-12 CFD Interface of 2 general contractors on ring bldg site$200LLn/aLApr-12 OPS-011.6Under estimated pre-ops labor$6,685HLLHJun-13 subtotal$27,835

16 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Risk & Contingency History Ring Building contract Enlarged LOBs & 500 mA capability Risk was 66% of contingency Risk is 33% of contingency LOB 4&5 shells

17 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Contingency Tracking To Date Now ~36% Jan 2013 > 90%

18 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Cost Baseline, Contingency, and Risks Burdened & Escalated Planned work $828M Completed work $597M Committed work-to-go$72M Uncommitted work-to-go$159M EAC ($20M) + Risks ($28M)$48M 25% of Uncommitted Work-to-go$40M Available Contingency $84M

19 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Pre-ops activities start to ramp up in 2012 Expect to need large fraction of $10M OPC contingency to cover additional labor resource needed for integrated testing in FY12, FY13 and FY14 We requested to DOE to pull-forward most of $5M OPC from FY15 to FY14 Significant risk for delay in project completion date without pull-forward of FY15 funding Project Funding

20 BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES Overall Performance On Schedule and On Budget wrt Baseline Excellent technical, cost & schedule performance to date Maintaining sound cost baseline with healthy remaining contingency Aggressively driven internal schedule Continue to execute technically limited schedule since June 2009 Negative schedule variances in specific areas: well understood and actively managed Lost fair amount of built-in schedule float for accelerator installation and beamline component procurement Risks and EAC well understood, tracked and managed A number of major risks (technical, cost & schedule) continue to retire or reduce ratings We are in the final home stretch of peak activity period with much excitement ahead