1. Cost and Schedule Paul Weinman Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

2. 03/19/142Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review Outline Scope Development Funding Profile Project Schedule Cost Estimate Basis of Estimate Contingency Summary

3. 03/19/143Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review US Belle-II Baseline Developed Using PNNL’s Certified EVMS WBS Dictionary/Scope Development Schedule Development Resource Planning/Cost Development A product of iterative planning Time-Phased Project Cost Estimate Baseline development, control and performance reporting is using the same systems and staff deployed on the Physical Sciences Facility Project

4. US Belle II Project Scope Organized by Detector Components US Belle II Project 1.01 Project Integration and Support 1.02 iTOP Optics 1.03 Readout Systems 1.04 KLM Systems 1.05 Commissioning Detectors KLM Systems (WBS 1.04) iTOP Optics (WBS 1.02) Readout Systems (WBS 1.03) to record signals from WBS 1.02 and 1.04 components Commissioning Detectors (WBS 1.05) 4Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review03/19/14

5. 5Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review All Project Scope Captured in Work Breakdown Structure WBS dictionaries developed at Level 2 elements Responsibility for delivery of KPPs assigned thru WBS to Work Packages – Documented in RAM Technical decisions clearly identified/supported by schedule activities

6. 03/19/146Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review Baseline Developed in Accordance With Funding Guidance

7. 03/19/147Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review Schedule Development Schedule aligns with funding profile, meets Japanese construction dates L2 managers identified tasks by phase (Design, Prototype, Production) Schedule organization consistent with WBS – 104 key milestones to track progress (Level 1, 2 and 3) – 970 schedule activities – Resource loaded – Supports BA/BO profiles Critical path analysis – Critical path through Readout development and iTOP quartz procurement – ~60 activities with less than two weeks total float – Constraints from Belle II (Japanese) Construction schedule drives float

8. 03/19/148Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review Schedule Basis ScopeSchedule Basis 1.02 - iTOP OpticsProduction rates and delivery schedules based on extensive prototyping with multiple vendors (Aperture/Okamoto, Zygo, ITT Space Systems) for Bars, Mirrors, and Prisms 1.03 - Readout SystemsSeveral iterations of design, fabrication/assembly and testing of prototypes, experience with electronic board development and vendor quotes for production 1.04 - KLM SystemsProduction complete 1.05 - Commissioning DetectorExperience on original Belle Commissioning Detector, CLEO dose monitor and prototype micro TPCs for other R&D efforts

9. 03/19/149Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review Schedule Meets Belle II (Japanese) Facility Construction Schedule

10. 03/19/1410Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review Critical Path Runs Through Optics Production ItemDate CD-2 Approval4/24/14 Place Order for TEC Bars5/2/14 Complete Testing of Commissioning Detector 2 TPC Prototypes 5/28/14 TEC Bar Production8/27/14 iTOP Board Stack – 1 st Boards Ready for Integration9/15/14 Quartz Optics Ready for Module 410/22/14 Quartz Optics Ready for Module 712/4/14 Assembly of Commissioning Detector Structure and TPC Prototypes 12/31/14 Quartz Optics Ready for Module 102/4/15 Fabrication/Construction Commissioning Detector TPCs7/7/15 Commissioning Detector TPCs Ready for Installation9/23/15 Critical Path to Japanese Schedule

11. 03/19/1411Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review TPC Drivers by WBS TPC $15M, Contingency @ 30% of TEC iTOP Optics accounts for ~50% of TPC

12. 03/19/1412Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review Cost Estimate – Resource Loaded Plan Generates Time Phased Budget

13. 03/19/1413Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review Cost Estimate  Bottom-up estimate reflecting maturity of design and prototyping to date Class 1 and 2 Estimate L2 Managers identified resource requirements, vetted and approved by PM Resources assigned to schedule activities  Resource loaded plan generates time phased budget Summarized through WBS Estimated labor hours and materials/subcontracts are priced in accordance with DOE approved PNNL Standard Pricing System Pricing includes overheads and escalation  TEC estimate refined based on vendor quotes and prototyping experience

14. 03/19/1414Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review Cost Estimate is Mature 67% of budget based on bids and vendor quotes Balance of estimate based on previous similar efforts and material take-offs Basis of Estimate identified at activity level, summarized at level 3 of WBS by resource type Traceable through fully burdened cost plan (WBS)

15. 03/19/1415Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review Staff Resources Identified and Committed to project

16. 03/19/1416Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review Detailed Cost Elements Budgeted and Monitored at Project Level Enables evaluation of staffing assumptions and risk University Labor/M&S Executed as subcontracts – $3.8M of University scope ($1.0M of labor) executed in subcontracts from PNNL

17. 03/19/1417Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review BA/BO Profile Linked to Schedule via Time Phased Cost Profile  BA – Funding guidance from OHEP  BO – Cost+ Commitments Time phase cost profile Award of contract actions represent commitment Sufficient Contingency across periods Cost and commitments do not include contingency

18. 03/19/1418Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review 30% Contingency Appropriate Quantified By Monte Carlo Utilize a formal risk management process Quantitative assessment (Monte Carlo) performed – supports qualitative analysis Contingency estimate of ~$2M (30%) and 12 months sufficient to support identified risks. 80% probability of completing within TEC

19. 03/19/1419Paul Weinman, US Belle II Independent Project Review Summary Project ready to be baselined Baseline developed using proven process and experienced staff The cost and schedule estimates are complete and realistic to accomplish the planned scope – Cost estimate is based largely on bids or quotes – Schedule based on prototyping, quotes, experience on similar work Adequate scope, cost and schedule contingency is included – Cost contingency of 30% and schedule contingency of 12 months is appropriate Schedule is resource-loaded, reflects the entire scope of the project, meets Belle II (Japanese) construction schedule and OHEP guidance Project milestones and critical path have been established for the project